Ukraine and Only Ukraine. If it isn't about Ukraine then fuck off

[d'ranger]

Cheney brought the NeoCon cabal that started with Nixon. Nothing more dangerous than a group of true believers. In other news the HIMARS are devastating the ORCs due to the use of GPS, drones and behind the lines spotters so are taking out ammo dumps and other valuable targets. If RU had these they would be of not much value because of poor leadership. Helps to be trained, nimble and on target.

 

[Olsonist]

No, Rummy really believed it. See "Fiasco".

I'm very skeptical of this. Con artists don't believe their own con, and they won't tell their marks that before the con and very rarely after the con. Rumsfeld and his crew were saying things they knew to be false. They were ostracizing and outing doubters. They directly benefited from the con.

Searching for Rumsfeld in Fiasco on the Amazon's preview,

Four days after the attacks, the President and his national security team met at Camp David to discuss the response to 9/11. The briefing materials the Rumsfeld and Wolfowitz brought offered three targets in the war on terrorism: al Qaeda, Afghanistan's Taliban and Iraq. But only Wolfowitz pressed the case that day for attacking Iraq.

p 31: Wolfowitz, left still determined, sending follow up memos to Rumsfeld on September 17 and September 18 that continued making the case for attacking Iraq.

It was clear Rumsfeld want to do something. But that's not belief.

 

[Stingray~]

What gets me about the strike on the port in Odessa is how there is now some argument about whether striking non grain-related parts of the port is legal and fair game, just not the silos etc.

Why is ANYTHING fired by RU into UKR legal?

 

[Mark_K]

I'm very skeptical of this. Con artists don't believe their own con, and they won't tell their marks that before the con and very rarely after the con. Rumsfeld and his crew were saying things they knew to be false. They were ostracizing and outing doubters. They directly benefited from the con.

Searching for Rumsfeld in Fiasco on the Amazon's preview,

Four days after the attacks, the President and his national security team met at Camp David to discuss the response to 9/11. The briefing materials the Rumsfeld and Wolfowitz brought offered three targets in the war on terrorism: al Qaeda, Afghanistan's Taliban and Iraq. But only Wolfowitz pressed the case that day for attacking Iraq.

p 31: Wolfowitz, left still determined, sending follow up memos to Rumsfeld on September 17 and September 18 that continued making the case for attacking Iraq.

It was clear Rumsfeld want to do something. But that's not belief.

The believing we were talking about is that it would be quick and easy, welcomed as liberators.

 

[Olsonist]

The believing we were talking about is that it would be quick and easy, welcomed as liberators.

Ok, I'll grant you Rumsfeld was an idiot. But before you get to the foolhardiness of his Iraq invasion, you have to get past his fallacious casus belli. And that wasn't a case of mistaken belief. That was a case of he be lyin' 'bout that casus belli.

 

[Mark_K]

Ok, I'll grant you Rumsfeld was an idiot. But before you get to the foolhardiness of his Iraq invasion, you have to get past his fallacious casus belli. And that wasn't a case of mistaken belief. That was a case of he be lyin' 'bout that casus belli.

Yes, the stovepiping of the intell to Bush shows knowledge of lying, but that was Cheney, whose bust was enshrined in the halls of Congress not that long ago.

When we demonize the Russians we assume they are incapable of similar dick-tripping. Or does the way they've conducted their special military operation in Ukraine compel a belief they are far too competent for that to have occurred?

 

[Stingray~]

Yes, the stovepiping of the intell to Bush shows knowledge of lying, but that was Cheney, whose bust was enshrined in the halls of Congress not that long ago.

Iirc the ONLY senator with the guts to vote against the resolution to let W & Co attack Iraq was Bernie. Hillary and everyone else folded; TFG (shock to me) even brought that vote up on stage in a debate against Hillary. Of course, he went on to say 'If we were going to do that then why aren't those oil fields ours now?'

 

[Olsonist]

Yes, the stovepiping of the intell to Bush shows knowledge of lying, but that was Cheney, whose bust was enshrined in the halls of Congress not that long ago.

When we demonize the Russians we assume they are incapable of similar dick-tripping. Or does the way they've conducted their special military operation in Ukraine compel a belief they are far too competent for that to have occurred?

I think our stupid war of choice in Iraq is very similar to Putin's stupid war of choice in Ukraine.
That said, I think we're more familiar with W the Stupid's thinking than with Putin's.
Putin comes from a completely different culture and history.
He may have thought Russians would be welcomed as liberators which is a similarity.
A difference Is their history of loss and being invaded
that we don't have which breeds a paranoia we don't have.

I used to think he was smart but he's only smarter than W the Stupid. He's really not smart at all.

 

[Stingray~]

I think our stupid war of choice in Iraq is very similar to Putin's stupid war of choice in Ukraine.
That said, I think we're more familiar with W the Stupid's thinking than with Putin's.
Putin comes from a completely different culture and history.
He may have thought Russians would be welcomed as liberators which is a similarity.
A difference Is their history of loss and being invaded
that we don't have which breeds a paranoia we don't have.

I used to think he was smart but he's only smarter than W the Stupid. He's really not smart at all.

Sure, but both were from heavily oil-industry interested backgrounds. Cheney was head of Halliburton before nominating himself to W as VP. W's biggest backer was... was it Enron? Good competition there vs Gazprom, for evil vs evil.

 

[Olsonist]

archive.ph

 

[Ishmael]

 

[Ex Machina]

This bugger just went dark near the border , more retired generals being flown in ?

 

[LeoV]

good old NavTex.

https://liveuamap.com/pics/2022/07/27/22471189_0.jpg

 

[Ishmael]

good old NavTex.

https://liveuamap.com/pics/2022/07/27/22471189_0.jpg

Blocked. Is this the image you were referencing?

 

[d'ranger]

https://russianinvasionofukraine202...914&share=2181d9f3&srid=nYgM&target_type=post

Warning: This is a long post - the link to it is above. I left out the photos and map to cut it down - they add a lot but make it hard to get all the really important words here. The author is new to me but what he writes rings true.

The HUGE Turning Point- M142s/M270s in Ukraine
"Every war has turning points."-Meg Rosoff

The Ukraine war has seen several turning points.

The first followed the first phase of the war, when the javelins/NLAWs reigned supreme and killed tank after tank- The Russians had made a lightening invasion and set their eyes on Kyiv.
Two months later, following successive defeats, Russian forces retreated to the Donbas.

This started not only the second phase of the war but also a second turning point; Russian forces no longer stretched across hundreds of miles suffered less logistical issues and concentrated their fighters. The Donbas war was full artillery war.

They didn’t have to worry so much about the javelins now. This was artillery war. They could hit from tens of kilometers away, beyond the realms of action of NLAWs, Javelins, Stingers and Bayraktars. The Russians had overwhelming firepower and the heavy artillery equipment for it- beyond the range of the M777s/Paladins.
And so a Russian steady creep began. Around 100 M777s did a great job of slowing them down and exacting a toll- not stop them. Russian forces had their own long range MLRS to overwhelm the few M777s, which was about the best long range artillery systems with the UAF and all the UAF had to respond with for a long while. It became evident Putin was ready to pay the heavy cost for slow gains and after a two-month creep, the Russians declared victory over Luhansk; over four months since the Russian invasion.

The West had finally decided weeks earlier to improve the artillery firepower capacity of the UAF with promised HIMARS. The UAF had been pleading for these for months- HIMARS were deployed by the UAF.

And thus began a new most-defining turning point.

The Ukrainians could respond better to the overwhelming long range artillery fire of the Russian forces. Now the UAF can conduct deep strikes behind the frontlines; neutralizing large troop groupings, ammo depots, artillery batteries and providing cover for its frontline artillery howitzer units.

The results were obvious within a month- the UAF was right. The West should have listened earlier. The UAF knew exactly what they needed. Gaps were closed in their offense and defense.

And that is where we are right now.

Pro-Russians love to paint a false ever-winning picture, parroting each other with “the West is lying to you. The Russians are winning on all fronts”- even the Russian soldiers know better. They’re not winning unless “dying” is now winning in Russian. Not by any stretch. Right now, the Russian forces are not only been degraded and sustaining heavy casualties- they’re not gaining an inch of ground. That has been so for around a month now.

At least some of the pro-Russian war reporters are now forced to heavily tone down their optimism and acknowledge the efficacy of the HIMARS that has granted the UAF greater capacity.

Monitoring pro-Russian war reporters and propagandist channels on Telegram yields a rich source of information as the Russians are never tired of boasting about their wins when they have one, and much of that can be easily verified, true or false, by comparing reports from other sources. They also make damning analysis of the Russian military when they suffer losses. Filtering all that data and merging with reports from the frontlines of the UAF and with other sources like ISW, gives quite a detailed and ever true picture of what’s happening on the ground.

Are the Ukrainians gaining ground right now? YES, on the southern edge, around the Kherson axis. The UAF are now the ones doing the slow creeping gains, securing new areas and gaining ground in villages on the border as it presses forward and lays the groundwork for full offensives. This does not mean the UAF is gaining ground on all fronts but they’re not losing any ground either. Importantly, the UAF is doing overwhelmingly better on all fronts but limit revealing details of its advances, as this is an ongoing mission and the Russians derive intelligence from UAF revealing updates on ongoing operations.

“We are not standing still, we are advancing, but these results can be announced only as they are fixed. At the same time, it was information instability in certain persons that resulted in yesterday’s counteroffensive that Russian occupiers attempted to launch in two directions in Beryslav District but failed. Our positions remained consolidated, strong. We continue our work, and they retreated to their positions, to the extreme line of defense they built and reinforced with concrete structures there.”-Natalia Humeniuk, Head of the United Coordination Press Center of the Defense Forces of Southern Ukraine.

There was a time the Russian forces could justify their costly losses with slow gains.

Are Russian forces gaining ground right now on ANY front? Unequivocally No. Despite massive offensives on multiple attacking fronts by the Russian forces and heavy deployment of MLRS, all that they’re recording is just losses. High casualties. Zero gains. And the desperation is showing- Russian military is now resorting to hiding ammo in civilian areas, in nuclear power plants and are now transporting ammunition in marked humanitarian aid convoys and trucks.
Does this mean Russian forces are folding up and running away? No. They’re still in the fight. The war is still on. Russian forces are trying to find a headway, both to stop UAF advances and to make their own advances. They’re just failing on all those efforts right now and the Russian counteroffensives are constantly being repulsed.
Counter-battery tactics has become the main focus over large distances. On most of the fronts, it is impossible for units to approach each other due to the open terrain as artillery shelling rains down from afar. It was easier for the Russians when they had all the long range artillery edge.

The M142 HIMARS and the M270 were the additional weapons that brought capacity to the UAF. That does not mean the M777s and Paladins weren’t useful. They were and still are. In fact, more M777s/Paladins would be a great addition for the UAF; The UAF only needed the heavy capacity for longer range artillery fire which the M777s/Paladins could not provide. Today, the M777s and the other western-supplied howitzers work in coordination with the long range M142 HIMARS and M270 MLRS.

Thanks to the huge support of the US-led West, delivering long range artillery capacity to the UAF is saving thousands of Ukrainian lives today with Russia now incapable of firing 50,000 shells daily.

Should the West have listened earlier when the UAF identified gaps in their offense and defense and pleaded for the MLRS months earlier? Yes.

Today, the UAF estimates they need even more MLRS to build real capacity. While the West has only committed to delivering around 20 HIMARS, the UAF has said they’ll need at least 50. 8 HIMARS are deployed now and that number will rise to 16 in the coming weeks. But the gap between the total of 20 planned for delivery and the 50 requested by the UAF is quite high. The West should make the commanding decision and, at the least, deliver close to 50 M142/M270s, if not that much.

Again, it would be wise now to listen to the UAF who are really doing the fighting and saying this is what they need. Piecemeal delivery of the M777s and other howitzers wasn’t helpful. Piecemeal and below-capacity delivery of the MLRS today will not be helpful.

And yes, air defense systems should be delivered to improve UAF air defenses to mitigate the Russian cruise missiles that are still recording fair hits. While only 2 of 4 Kalibr missiles fired on Saturday on Odessa were caught by air defenses, 4 of 4 Kalibr missiles fired by the Russian navy were shot down overnight over Kharkiv.

Amidst irreversible damage to his forces, Putin hopes that Western support for Ukraine will wane and he would get the upper hand in a war of attrition.

No, Russia will not win a war of attrition either. It will only cost more lives.

The West can save more lives and prevent a needless years-long war of attrition by delivering enough of what the UAF needs now.

 

[Burning Man]

Blocked. Is this the image you were referencing?

View attachment 530823

I wonder how long it will take for one of the soviet subs in the Black sea to send a UKR cargo ship or ten to the bottom? I don't trust them as far as I can throw them.

 

[Mid]

 

[Sol Rosenberg]

 

[jocal505]

IANAL. What is the legal rationale for seizing the floating property of (alleged) oligarchs?

Who or what is the driving force behind such a seizure? Just asking.

 

[Mike in Seattle]

Warning: This is a long post - the link to it is above.

Great post, d'ranger, Thanks
, sounds encouraging

I wonder how long it will take for one of the soviet subs in the Black sea to send a UKR cargo ship or ten to the bottom? I don't trust them as far as I can throw them.

I wonder how long it will take for one of my P8s to bring home a DTS submarine.