Ukraine

enigmatically2

Super Anarchist
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with respect to the AC, I struggle to see why it would materially affect the event.

In 1994 NATO, at the request of the UN was engaged in air strikes in the Bosnian war. Yet the football world cup (a much bigger event) was held in the US, somewhat over 6000km away

Even if the AC were held in Cork (the nearest proposed venue to Kiev) that is almost 3000km away. And NATO will not be involved

And it is unlikely the Russian-Ukranian war would still be ongoing (apart from low-level insurgent activity which has been going on for ages anyway) in 2024

Providing GD is not planning to hold the event in Russia or take Russian money I don't see why there should be any impact

 

dogwatch

Super Anarchist
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South Coast, UK
with respect to the AC, I struggle to see why it would materially affect the event.
How about the non-zero probability of the surface of the planet becoming a radioactive smoking wasteland? The autocrat of a nuclear-tipped superpower appears to have turned clinically paranoid. He has already issued barely coded warnings of Armageddon. The possibility this turns out to be seriously bad is, unfortunately, present.

 
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enigmatically2

Super Anarchist
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Earth
How about the non-zero probability of the surface of the planet becoming a radioactive smoking wasteland? The autocrat of a nuclear-tipped superpower appears to have turned clinically paranoid. He has already issued barely coded warnings of Armageddon. The possibility this turns out to be seriously bad is, unfortunately, present.
It is non-zero it is true. If that happens then I won't hold it against GD if he doesn't hold the next AC. Similarly if an asteroid wipes out NZ and everyone on it but leaves the rest of the world unaffected.

But apart from that, it is no reason to postpone, plead hardship of sponsorship etc

 

dogwatch

Super Anarchist
16,837
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South Coast, UK
Was it during the lead-up to  AC34 or 35 that people were discussing the possibility of a Russian entry? Different times.

"Similarly if an asteroid wipes out NZ and everyone on it but leaves the rest of the world unaffected." Now that is a zero possibility. The quantity of dust that would go into the atmosphere would fuck us all. Ask the dinosaurs about it.

 
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Rennmaus

Super Anarchist
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It is non-zero it is true. If that happens then I won't hold it against GD if he doesn't hold the next AC. Similarly if an asteroid wipes out NZ and everyone on it but leaves the rest of the world unaffected.

But apart from that, it is no reason to postpone, plead hardship of sponsorship etc
It won't bother GD if the asteroid wiped out NZ, as AC37 is planned to be held outside NZ anyway. 

 

enigmatically2

Super Anarchist
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"Similarly if an asteroid wipes out NZ and everyone on it but leaves the rest of the world unaffected." Now that is a zero possibility. The quantity of dust that would go into the atmosphere would fuck us all. Ask the dinosaurs about it.
I am well aware of that. But it is a non-zero possibility

 

Rennmaus

Super Anarchist
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@Rennmaus, could you place Der Spiegel in the political spectrum? In Italy, it’s mainly remembered for the spagetti/revolver covers a few years ago
It once was rather left, moved to the middle-left, but it always offers good, well-researched, balanced journalism. 

 

Stingray~

Super Anarchist
11,562
3,076
PNW
How about the non-zero probability of the surface of the planet becoming a radioactive smoking wasteland? The autocrat of a nuclear-tipped superpower appears to have turned clinically paranoid. He has already issued barely coded warnings of Armageddon. The possibility this turns out to be seriously bad is, unfortunately, present.
I put the chance of this at extremely close to zero, nobody is quite that f'ing crazy. If there is anything good about nukes, it is in the obvious war deterrence that mutually assured destruction provides.

And that is why I am glad the allies are staying (militarily) the hell out of UKR. Unfortunately Pres Z wants males to not leave the country, arm up, fight back, etc, which I find to be a seriously bad move; the more they resist, the more people will get killed.

 
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floater

Super Duper Anarchist
4,933
795
quivira regnum
it is - quite literally - a holy war for Russia. look up Rus. and if that doesn't scare you enough, Russia does not have the same pov as the west on nuclear arms. not at all. they are just another part of the arsenal for Russia. 

it does seem to me that having a shooting war in Europe - could cast a pall (in general) over festivities in Europe. like sponsoring an NZ party in Spain. 

 
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dogwatch

Super Anarchist
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South Coast, UK
I put the chance of this at extremely close to zero, nobody is quite that f'ing crazy.
First thing, if you consider some of Putin's recent behaviour and speeches, he does seem to have gone more than a bit Dr Strangelove.

Secondly, what worries me is Russia making their next move on the Baltics borders. Then we would be in the world of NATO Article 5.

I don't think a nuclear shooting war is likely but neither is the chance "close to zero". 

 

Stingray~

Super Anarchist
11,562
3,076
PNW
it does seem to me that having a shooting war in Europe - could cast a pall (in general) over festivities in Europe. like sponsoring an NZ party in Spain. 
Ha! An 'NZ party is Spain' may be closer to SAAC's subject matter but this would be among the very last concerns if 'a shooting war in Europe' broke out - F'ing Yikes! I firmly believe the chances of this are close to zero too.

 

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