Ukraine

estarzinger

Super Anarchist
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Although it wasn't just laziness . . . . a large political faction that agreed with Hitler.
Yea, in between the wars, many in the UK and US ruling/upper classes preferred Hitler to Lenin.

It has faded from US memory, but Soviet communism was viewed (by many of the decision-makers) as purely evil and a significant existential threat to 'our way of life'.

The ruling/upper class's best case back then was that the Germans and Russians would rearm and then just focus on destroying each other.
 

Mark_K

Super Anarchist
I mentioned upthread meeting an Italian leftist again, who surprisingly despite that leaning drove a black Ferrari to our October lunch date in Rome for a catch up, and i got hooked into a monthly newsfeed his UNFAO-related organization sends. Disagree with much of this included link but maybe the final para is worth considering - food for thought.

A lot of people summarily dismiss ISW because of the reprehensible people on the board, but its been quite cautious in their assertions and has accumulated a record of dispassionate accuracy. Look at the staff and find a lot of top-drawer academics who have professional reps to maintain and are unlikely to sacrifice them to pursue ideological agendas. Look at their daily assessments and see how many times you can find them making a claim that proved false. Hardly a one to be found. I believe it highly likely the board is hands-off on their staff. And the staff is ready to split if the weren't, give the fates of those who didn't in the Iraq fiasco. Just a guess.

The author is probably projecting on how those people were involved with stove-piping the intell on Iraq, which they most definitely were doing 20 years ago, but that was then and this is now, and those folks know they got exposed in that rodeo.

The ISW assertion he cites, that closing the Lsyschansk pocket will concentrate and deplete Russian assets (which opens the door for counter offensives), is simple common sense. He dothed protestethed too much there, by a damn sight.
 

Stingray~

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ISW is who?

Anyway, always did hate the war mongering Neocons, Paul Wolfowitz especially. Innocent people who wanted no part of those various wars got massacred.

Dick Cheney, Scooter Libby and others who promoted The Big Lie about Iraq’s WMD’s should have been executed years ago, even if by firing squads! F’ing Bastards.
 
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Mark_K

Super Anarchist
ISW is who?

Anyway, always did hate the war mongering Neocons, Paul Wolfowitz especially. Innocent people who wanted no part of those various wars got massacred.
Read the article you posted for an answer to who ISW is.

The US think tanks do not control the world, they just like to imagine they do. The US public tends to think the same way, but in fact the world consists of people making their own choices, for their own reasons.
 

dogwatch

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I wonder if Russia will be claiming the missile was fired by Ukraine, as they have done previously.

That didn't take long. From a Russian social media channel. Syrian white helmets is a reference to https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/White_Helmets_(Syrian_civil_war)

Ukrainian channels disperse "an attack on the shopping center with a huge number of dead." Thus, they are trying to make Bucha-2 out of Kremenchug.

How was the first organized?

The Russians retreated from near Kyiv, not touching the civilian population at all, showing the maximum of philanthropy, after which they brought the bodies there and organized one of the most powerful falsifications in history.

What could be here?

Although the blow was delivered not at the shopping center, but at the oil refinery supplying fuel to the entire eastern grouping of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, they are trying to cover up and sum up the losses among the civilian population, which can either be simply invented or thrown in under the guise of pre-mothballed bodies.

In any case, the masters of falsifications, where the Ukrainians are “on vocals”, have taken up the matter: the experience of the Syrian “white helmets”, and computer graphics, and actors depicting the victims, which have already flashed in Ukraine, will be used here.

Why was Kremenchuk chosen, not even a regional, but only a regional center?

It is very convenient with t.z. falsifications. The blows of the VSK RF are in the step - work on the refinery. It is necessary to "hit the shopping center with hundreds of people." There are no extra eyes in the form of unauthorized filming and streaming from the spot.

There are no superfluous eyes, those who are supposed to shoot are filming, broadcasting a picture of "atrocities". Everything is scheduled according to the notes in time - impact, shooting, flame, anguish, etc.

And yes, in a number of videos in the frames against the background of the flames there are only men, you yourself understand why. Why do only men go to the shopping center in Kremenchug when they need to? That's why.

Kremenchug shopping center - an almost empty parking lot and absolutely unscathed cars with whole windows. And this is not to mention the fact that such a powerful fire is, in principle, atypical for "arrivals", but it is in perfect harmony with the version of the purposeful detonation of containers with combustible materials.


(For those not paying attention to my position in this thread, yes the claims above are clumsy propaganda, no I don't believe them).
 
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LeoV

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Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov on when the war in Ukraine might end: “The Ukrainians can end everything today. They just need to order Ukrainian troops to lay down their weapons and fulfill Russia’s conditions. And it’ll all be over.”
Russia's still pushing for full surrender. Not a hint of compromise. No reason to talk to them about a treaty.
 

dogwatch

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Russia's still pushing for full surrender. Not a hint of compromise.

There has been a more than a hint of compromise: Putin's recent speech in which he said he'd have no objection to Ukraine joining the EU. That's actually huge. Firstly, this whole shitstorm started in 2014 when, at Moscow's behest, Yanukovych attempted to back off a move to join the EU and was subsequently ejected from power. The seizure of Crimea followed. Secondly, the suggestion that Ukraine could join the EU means that a pro-western Ukraine would remain in existence, whereas Putin's initial war aims certainly included beheading of the independent "Nazi" Ukrainian regime.

There is however the slight issue over whether anyone can believe a word Putin says.
 

estarzinger

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There has been a more than a hint of compromise . . . . . . whether anyone can believe a word Putin says.
There was also an interesting statement: "Russia's Medvedev says any NATO encroachment on Crimea could lead to World War Three".

The direct implication is that Crimea is a red line for their 'escalate to deescalate policy.

But there is the possible unstated implication that eastern Ukraine is not as critical an issue for them, and could potentially be negotiated.

And your second comment is a fundamental stumbling block - how do you negotiate with someone you absolutely do not trust? The answer is you either dictate terms to them from a position of strength or take terms from a position of near defeat, or 'negotiate' essentially a short-term pause but both parties know it is not over and the agreement is essentially understood to be in bad faith.
 

d'ranger

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The west is playing this one well - despite the cries of sending in the big NATO guns. Russia is being worn down both militarily and economically. The G7 endorsement "in it to win it" has to resonate in Moscow and at some point Putin will fold like a cheap suit - my guess is August is going to be a really bad month for them and by year end they will be looking for anyone to get the fuck out.

There will be no WWIII as all those Oligarchs care way more about their personal fortunes that anything else.

slava Ukraine.
 

estarzinger

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worn down both militarily
Just as an aside, but agreeing on this point (and nothing I say below should be interpreted as any sort of 'excuse' for hitting civilian targets)

Regarding Russia's cruise missile strikes. They appear to have run out (or very short - for some time now) of their best land-attack cruise missiles and are now commonly using ship attack missiles to try to hit land targets. And this does not work very well because the terminal guidance system on these missiles is extremely problematic for land targets. It is a RCS guidance system that hones in only on the largest (and it needs to be very large to start with) radar cross-section object in its vision at flight termination. This worked when targeting an aircraft carrier which was the primary mission for these missiles. But sucks for land targets. When they hit the big shopping mall, the speculation is they wanted to hit a near by oil refinery but the missile instead locked onto the mall.

at some point Putin will fold like a cheap suit - my guess is August is going to be a really bad month for them and by year end they will be looking for anyone to get the fuck out.
I hope so . . . . but the Russians do have enormous tenacity and ability to absorb pain and shortage. And Putin himself has little form for 'folding like a cheap suit', often he escalates/doubles down. If Ukr is in fact standing up/training a 30,000-strong strategic reserve (as has been speculated in various places) and will have them available for counter-attacks in say august or early fall along with good western weapons, then I think there is a good possibility of making the Russians agree to significant compromises on your time frame. Otherwise, I am back to it is impossible to predict when/which one of the armies will break and the default likelihood (for the foreseeable future) is some sort of frozen front.
 
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dogwatch

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There was also an interesting statement: "Russia's Medvedev says any NATO encroachment on Crimea could lead to World War Three".

The direct implication is that Crimea is a red line for their 'escalate to deescalate policy.

But there is the possible unstated implication that eastern Ukraine is not as critical an issue for them, and could potentially be negotiated.

And your second comment is a fundamental stumbling block - how do you negotiate with someone you absolutely do not trust? The answer is you either dictate terms to them from a position of strength or take terms from a position of near defeat, or 'negotiate' essentially a short-term pause but both parties know it is not over and the agreement is essentially understood to be in bad faith.
Yes, I agree with all of that. I construe Putin's current (reduced) war aims as securing the Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts, which is well on the way to completion, and maintaining control of Crimea. If the latter comes under threat, that's when Russia's 500 tactical nukes start flying, because a Black Sea naval base has always been part of Russia's vital interests. Ukraine, on the other hand, wants to regain pre-2014 borders.
 

LeoV

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Putin agreeing with something totally out of his control is not a compromise.
But behind the scenes he will do anything to stop EU membership for Ukraine, if possible.
 

LeoV

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Most missiles used are not dumb, but not many laser guided ones used any more.
One example, the 101;
For mid course navigation, it uses an electro-optical correction system that uses a terrain map stored in the missile’s onboard computer to perform photographic terrain comparison updates, as well as inertial and Russian GLONASS satellite navigation.12 In the terminal stage, the missile uses a TV imaging infrared seeker for guidance. The circular error probable of the Kh-101/-102 has been reported as 6 m, but is generally stated as between 10-20 m.

More info;https://missilethreat.csis.org/country/russia/
 
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