Ukraine

Steam Flyer

Sophisticated Yet Humble
44,405
9,672
Eastern NC
I've read this guys stuff for a whole, I haven't agreed with all of what he has written by some way, but this is interesting.
Short version is that when you allow for lack of palletisation & automation in RU logistics, damage to roads etc, GMLRS now means that UKR can now target fuel and ammo depots so far behind the front line that the Russian trucks cannot do even a single return trip a day from a depot to front line.
And rail logistics are easier to target. So as GMLRS makes itself felt, RU logistics (and in particular support for artillery) are effectively unsustainable


If true, it should make itself felt on the battlefield with a couple of weeks depending on what percentage of supplies they interdict. Hungry soldiers or ones out of ammo are very poor at combat ops.

Russia claims to have destroyed two HIMARS units. Hope it is not true, there would only be two left in that case. Four more are due to be delivered soon.
Yeah, I really hope it's not true, also. They would have only been at the front for a few days if the news about training/deployment is correct. The whole point is to keep them back in low-risk areas while blowing up valuable Russian shit. Where was the report that 2 have been destroyed?
 

LeoV

Super Anarchist
12,740
3,781
The Netherlands
Russian missiles damaged a lot of infrastructure. Ukraine is catching up. Even prices at the petrol pump are going down.
And I get your point. Russia has 20th century army with 19th century logistic.See armored trains ...

And looks like Ukr did no lose HIMARS, stuff still getting blown up in Kherson and Donetsk.
 

Stingray~

Super Anarchist
11,786
3,155
PNW
I think that is a very inaccurate and detracting definition of an oligarch.
It presents a misleading picture of both the US political system of government and organized crime in Russia.

Throughout history there have been people who influence the affairs of state. William Cecil influenced the affairs of England during the reign of Queen Elizabeth the First. Hamilton advised Washington. Jonathan Gray and Joshua Bekenstein have profound access to the Biden administration.

In contemporary Western democracies including the United States, positions of influence and advice on both sides or the aisle have been attained through commercial success, military aptitude, intellectual ability, political & oratory skills and nepotism but rarely by organized crime. The Mafia tried hard during the Kennedy years but were repulsed .

You may dislike the American system of lobbying and depending on your politics you may dislike Warren Buffet, Bill Gates or the Koch Brothers, but it is fundamentally and extraordinarily different from Russia where organized crime has misappropriated vast wealth and vast swathes of the Russian economy and one of these criminals has installed himself as President .

Viewing the Oligarchs as the puppeteers who pull the strings in Russia misunderstands the relationship. The Oligarchs are Putin's underlings, not the other way around. The closest analogy is the Mafia and Putin is the godfather. He decides who gets what and in return he gets a piece of the action. They may come up with ideas and schemes but the final decision is down to Putin advised by a couple of consigliere (notably Nikolai Shamalov). Putin's personal illicit wealth is more than equal to that of the individual oligarchs.

IMHO, an Oligarch , properly defined in the context of contemporary Russia and Ukraine is a person or criminal , who obtained vast wealth by misappropriating the assets of Russian state owned enterprises during the collapse of the soviet system or was subsequently awarded state owned contracts through illegal means or created vast illegal schemes through state schemes after the fall of the Soviet empire. This usually entailed, fraud, thuggery, murder, blackmail and corruption. One of the larger acquirer of assets is Rosinvest which funded by PetroMed which in turn was 50% owned by the Saint Petersburg's Committee on External Relations (KVS).....which was headed by....you guessed it, Vladamir Putin. Everything is in the name of Shamalov whose sole business qualification before he met Putin was that he was a dentist in St Petersburg.

Why is this relevant to Ukraine? Because the Panama papers revealed that Putin has a significant offshore interest in Rossiya bank, a bank that is ostensibly controlled by Shamalov. What bank is the largest investor and lender to Russian development in the Crimea?.....you guessed right again.
Good arguments there. Yes, okay, Russian Oligarchs are a very different breed.
 

Mark_K

Super Anarchist
I think Ukraine's logistics are easier. Wester weapons come with palletisation. MLRS and others come with built in cranes. They are getting a lot of logistical help from west
Trust me, the Russians know about pallets and use them extensively.

Logistics is a very broad term covering everything from manufacture to delivery on-site. In the mfg area we are a bit in the dark about Russia's abilities when it comes to mass manufacturing of ammo and arms. We know they have some problems in the high tech areas but aren't clear in the area of standard ammo manufacturing. On the other side, there has been a lot of noise about mfg issues in the West. The US military adopted a policy of not keeping a heck of a lot on hand to save money. Stems from the advent of smart munitions, in which it is assumed every bomb hits so we don't need big piles. The manufacturers are configured to produce a steady small volume stream of materials, not huge batches in a hurry.

On the transportation end Ukraine has a distinct disadvantage, they are still on the Soviet legacy gauge tracks and everybody west of them isn't. There can be no direct rail transport from NATO to anywhere near where the fighting is happening, it all has to be unloaded and reloaded about 600 miles away. The Russians don't have that problem.
 

Ex Machina

Super Anarchist
1,142
481
New Zealand
I think that is a very inaccurate and detracting definition of an oligarch.
It presents a misleading picture of both the US political system of government and organized crime in Russia.

Throughout history there have been people who influence the affairs of state. William Cecil influenced the affairs of England during the reign of Queen Elizabeth the First. Hamilton advised Washington. Jonathan Gray and Joshua Bekenstein have profound access to the Biden administration.

In contemporary Western democracies including the United States, positions of influence and advice on both sides or the aisle have been attained through commercial success, military aptitude, intellectual ability, political & oratory skills and nepotism but rarely by organized crime. The Mafia tried hard during the Kennedy years but were repulsed .

You may dislike the American system of lobbying and depending on your politics you may dislike Warren Buffet, Bill Gates or the Koch Brothers, but it is fundamentally and extraordinarily different from Russia where organized crime has misappropriated vast wealth and vast swathes of the Russian economy and one of these criminals has installed himself as President .

Viewing the Oligarchs as the puppeteers who pull the strings in Russia misunderstands the relationship. The Oligarchs are Putin's underlings, not the other way around. The closest analogy is the Mafia and Putin is the godfather. He decides who gets what and in return he gets a piece of the action. They may come up with ideas and schemes but the final decision is down to Putin advised by a couple of consigliere (notably Nikolai Shamalov). Putin's personal illicit wealth is more than equal to that of the individual oligarchs.

IMHO, an Oligarch , properly defined in the context of contemporary Russia and Ukraine is a person or criminal , who obtained vast wealth by misappropriating the assets of Russian state owned enterprises during the collapse of the soviet system or was subsequently awarded state owned contracts through illegal means or created vast illegal schemes through state schemes after the fall of the Soviet empire. This usually entailed, fraud, thuggery, murder, blackmail and corruption. One of the larger acquirer of assets is Rosinvest which funded by PetroMed which in turn was 50% owned by the Saint Petersburg's Committee on External Relations (KVS).....which was headed by....you guessed it, Vladamir Putin. Everything is in the name of Shamalov whose sole business qualification before he met Putin was that he was a dentist in St Petersburg.

Why is this relevant to Ukraine? Because the Panama papers revealed that Putin has a significant offshore interest in Rossiya bank, a bank that is ostensibly controlled by Shamalov. What bank is the largest investor and lender to Russian development in the Crimea?.....you guessed right again.
interesting read ….poor dears it must be so difficult for them at the moment . Click on the English flag in top right corner for translation .
 

Stingray~

Super Anarchist
11,786
3,155
PNW
from here, making me what if any effect may eventuate for GBR's future support to Ukr.

The dramatic disintegration of Johnson's political career could now be hours from completion; while he has so far refused to buckle, Conservative lawmakers were discussing reformulating their party rules and voting to oust him if needed.

 

dogwatch

Super Anarchist
16,904
1,587
South Coast, UK
from here, making me what if any effect may eventuate for GBR's future support to Ukr.

The dramatic disintegration of Johnson's political career could now be hours from completion; while he has so far refused to buckle, Conservative lawmakers were discussing reformulating their party rules and voting to oust him if needed.

The greased piglet still thinks he will wriggle free. We shall see.

Assuming he does get dumped by his party, it is completely unclear who will succeed him, so your question is unanswerable. At a guess, the British stance on Ukraine won’t change that much.
 
interesting read ….poor dears it must be so difficult for them at the moment . Click on the English flag in top right corner for translation .
I think it is important to distinguish between Oligarchs (criminally wealthy groups who obtained their wealth through corrupt schemes and defrauding the state with the help of Putin) and genuine post soviet entrepreneurs who started their own businesses and grew them organically (if there are acquisitions involved, they probably involved extortion and illegal persuasion)....the class 3 SRR that the author describes. Unfortunately there are very few Class 3 SRRs left in Russia. If you make serious legitimate money in Russia, you are probably going to get out before the thugs arrive and make you an offer you cannot refuse.

The author is right, no amount of asset confiscation is going to make the oigarchs abandon Putin. They depend on Putin, and if they betray him, he will confiscate their assets and distribute them to junior oligarchs.

But ultimately, a criminal economy is an inefficient economy and it cannot compete with China and the West.

China has stomped on corruption. China's military and industrial cpability is far greater than Russia. China's territorial ambitions are unambiguous and passionate. In the long term, China is a much more threatening regime than Russia .....and China is loving the whole Ukraine situation. They sit quietly on the sidelines as the fissure between Russia and Western Europe widens, ensuring that their northern border gets more secure by the month so that the Chinese can focus on their clearly stated aspirations in the South China Sea. When (not if) China invades Taiwan, the damage to the Western economies (as we lose half of our advanced semiconductor manufacturing capacity ) will be far more severe than losing Ukrainian wheat.
 

enigmatically2

Super Anarchist
3,534
1,810
Earth
Trust me, the Russians know about pallets and use them extensively.
Read the link I posted. There is a lot of evidence that the Russian army is hand loading ammunitions and then transferring them by hand to tanks and artillery. No pallets, no forklifts, no automation
 
I think it is important to distinguish between Oligarchs (criminally wealthy groups who obtained their wealth through corrupt schemes and defrauding the state with the help of Putin) and genuine post soviet entrepreneurs who started their own businesses and grew them organically (if there are acquisitions involved, they probably involved extortion and illegal persuasion)....the class 3 SRR that the author describes. Unfortunately there are very few Class 3 SRRs left in Russia. If you make serious legitimate money in Russia, you are probably going to get out before the thugs arrive and make you an offer you cannot refuse.

The author is right, no amount of asset confiscation is going to make the oigarchs abandon Putin. They depend on Putin, and if they betray him, he will confiscate their assets and distribute them to junior oligarchs.

But ultimately, a criminal economy is an inefficient economy and it cannot compete with China and the West.

China has stomped on corruption. China's military and industrial cpability is far greater than Russia. China's territorial ambitions are unambiguous and passionate. In the long term, China is a much more threatening regime than Russia .....and China is loving the whole Ukraine situation. They sit quietly on the sidelines as the fissure between Russia and Western Europe widens, ensuring that their northern border gets more secure by the month so that the Chinese can focus on their clearly stated aspirations in the South China Sea. When (not if) China invades Taiwan, the damage to the Western economies (as we lose half of our advanced semiconductor manufacturing capacity ) will be far more severe than losing Ukrainian wheat.

"China: MI5 and FBI heads warn of ‘immense’ threat"​

 

enigmatically2

Super Anarchist
3,534
1,810
Earth
All news outlets saying he will resign (though will be PM until replaced in Autumn). Apart from anything else, he doesn't seem to be able to find anyone to serve under him in cabinet who doesn't think he should go
 




Top