Ukraine

[dogwatch]

All news outlets saying he will resign (though will be PM until replaced in Autumn).

On the other hand: https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/live-cabinet-resignations-continue

9.29 a.m – Will Dominic Raab take over?

James Forsyth writes... There is a growing view among ministers that Dominic Raab should become interim PM and Boris Johnson should leave immediately. The idea is that Raab would simply bring back everyone who had resigned and government could then continue.

 

[enigmatically2]

Details, The important thing is that he is going.

More on subject. The US think tank "Institude for Study of War" reports that T there were no claimed or assessed Russian territorial gains in Ukraine on July 6 for the first time in 133 days of war, supporting the institute's assessment that Russian forces have largely initiated an operational pause.

Deliberate pause or forced?

 

[Mark_K]

Details, The important thing is that he is going.

More on subject. The US think tank "Institude for Study of War" reports that T there were no claimed or assessed Russian territorial gains in Ukraine on July 6 for the first time in 133 days of war, supporting the institute's assessment that Russian forces have largely initiated an operational pause.

Deliberate pause or forced?

All pauses in war are forced.

 

[chesirecat]

Not all roses for UKR. M777's swiftly targeted and damaged by shrapnel, big troop losses. Probably dire need of artillery radar and anti-drone measures. Further radar batteries are being supplied by the US
Austrian Military summary - in English

 

[P Flados]

Just saw some good news relating to long range precision tube/rocket artillery (see bold below). It prompted me to try to figure out the delivery status.

155mm tube artillery:

• Over 130 towed 155s (mostly M777s) are delivered.
  
  
• The total number of 155mm SPGs (Krab, Caeser, M109, PZH 2000) looks to be quite a few delivered and more on the way.
  
  
• Recently announced is that the US will supply 1000 M982 Excalibur GPS-guided shells (40 km range from M777, longer from most 155mm SPGs).

327mm rocket launchers (all ammo seems to be the precision variant with 80 km range):

• The U.S. has trained more than 100 Ukrainian troops on the HIMAR system (6 tube MRLS). Ukraine has received 8 HIMARs systems from the U.S. and 4 more are on the way.
  
  
• The UK and Germany have also pledged 3 each M270 systems (12 tube MLRS). I think the Brits have delivered, Germany is supposed to be sometime this year.

 

[phill_nz]

Austrian Military summary - in English

we obviously have a different interpretation of the word ' english ' here

 

[Kiwing]

There is an English version here. or

 

[chesirecat]

Oops, thanks @Kiwing

 

[Kiwing]

It is a bit depressing analysis? Will the new weapons be enough to turn it around?

 

[LeoV]

Turn around will be the moment Russian army loses morale, man or material. They had a morale uptick with some small successes. But back to small, heavy fighting, operations with minimal gains at high costs.

Ukraine needs to pressure the Russian front, and the new weapons help with that. Hit the logistics and command centrums.
Like Rusia did with missiles, it makes the battlefield more even. Rus is running out of precision missiles, while Ukr get more precision long distance arty shells. So long as Ukr knows to identify high value targets, it can reduce Rus material at the front.

Of the Rus army 75% of the battle ready group have been in action in Ukraine, with heavy losses. Russia is short of personnel to push with big offences.

But Rus defends well in the parts Ukraine tries to advance, so battle of attrition between them.

Just this night, 3 Russian ammo dumps hit, here is one;

 

[Fiji Bitter]

This one from yesterday appears to be a good one too. No idea how reliable though.

 

[Chasm]

It is a bit depressing analysis? Will the new weapons be enough to turn it around?

Shore things up until more soldiers get trained. Training is a bottleneck that can not be underestimated. Ukraine is only willing or able to send a very limited amount of soldiers.
Take Panzerhaubitze 2000 as an example. The crews came straight from the eastern front to Germany for training, then went right back to the eastern front again. (Training was 7 days a week, 10-12 hours each day, for 36 days. Days only forcibly shortened by trainers when fatigue and the consequent risk of loosing limbs or life became too great.)
Gepard is even worse. The 15 SPAAG will be delivered at the end of this month. According to the latest reports only 15 crews get trained on a system that required 3 full crews each in western use. Anti air warfare is a 24/7 job with only seconds notice. Have fewer crews and they fall asleep on the job and get killed. This was recently demonstrated in the 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh war where various anti air systems only had 1 crew and got droned that way.

Quality of training is a problem in some places.
Gepard again: Training is provided by industry only, it has been cut down from initially 8 weeks to 3. Bundeswehr soldiers that used Gepard in the past and offered to help said that 3 weeks is "assisted suicide" and are no longer interested in trainer/consultant gig with at least one active career soldier publicly playing the conscientious objection card to raise the profile of the problem... They thought 6-8 weeks is the minimum for conversion from Sowjet Shilka/Tunguska and going to war with Gepard. More time for soldiers without prior SPAAG experience. - The difference to other weapon systems like artillery is the duel situation. If you see a SU-25, KA-52 or Mi-24 there are only seconds to successfully identify the target as hostile and to engage and destroy it. Not a major problem if you actually know WTF you are doing but there is simply no time to think, consult the manual or call a friend. In that case you are dead and some Russian pilot made bank and goes from the front to a much safer propaganda tour across Russia...
PzH2000 training on the other hand was provided by Bundeswehr. It got cut down to the bone but trainers insisted on including all war time relevant materials For example they drilled all the contingencies and alternate/degraded modes of operation PzH2000 has. It is basically highly computerized and automated robot so there are a lot of them. (The Inspector General of the Bundeswehr gave a number: 120) After delivery there were some interviews with the Ukrainian soldiers. That they went into training thinking that they would blitz through it 10 days flat and then be on their way back to the front. Instead they found out that the system is indeed complicated, the training necessary and that they requested some specific additional(!!!) training. - Now we have reports from the front that some PzH2000 got engaged but were able to continue. (From the Russia destroyed PzH200 propaganda.) Or in the words of Oberst Felber, the General of the Bundeswehr artillery forces "That is why PzH2000 is armored". [Yes a Colonel posted as the General of the artillery. Because reasons. Likely not enough subordinates to warrant a gold star. ]

Then there is the question where the western gear goes.
Whenever a pocket is lost we are getting reports from the guys fighting in them. It seems that there was a command decision not to send any major western gear into soon to be lost areas. Which makes some sense but is hard on the limited amount of professional solders still available, especially when they run out of ammo for their Sowjet systems... If the evacuation order comes just a little too late or the execution gets messed up that kind of fighting (delaying action turning into rearguard action) gets really deadly in no time at all.

 

[Chasm]

In other Gepard news Norway is able to deliver additional 35mm ammo.
Not exactly a secret. Nammo had Gepard compatible ammo listed on their website for years. If that failed Romarm from Romania would be another option. Romania build local production capacity when they bought Gepard for their army. (The older analog B2L model.)

The big question is if this is legacy ammo (a mixed belt of semi armor piercing incendiary and high explosive incendiary ) or FAPDS. (Like the kinetic darts tanks use since the cold war, just much smaller and very brittle so that it breaks up after hitting the skin of an aircraft and is able to wreck more of the internals.)
FAPDS would be great, the old stuff ...not so much. Using legacy ammo reduces the combat range down to roughly 60% compared to FAPDS. In a 3D environment that matters a lot.
Or more visually, as one of the Gepard commanders said: That is the difference between removing an attack helicopter from the sky when it slows down at its maximum rage to fire a guided anti tank missile at you. - Or getting killed by the same helicopter with the same missile but without the chance to shoot back.

Either way. An "unlimited" supply of ammo in Ukraine makes their plan to train additional crews locally more feasible. Still makes no sense to me why you would not use the trainers, simulators and the export restricted ammo available in Germany. It is not like KMW has any other customers for Gepard. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
The simulator is actually pretty cool for its age. Your bring your own Gepard and connect it via diagnostics ports. The sim gets all buttons as inputs and controls all displays and indicators inside. The crew sees Gunship 2000 style graphics through the optics. Visual friend foe identification was a big part of the training. It is even more important now when both sides fly the same types. The turret and weapons move freely for added realism.

 

[chesirecat]

British commanders aim to have 2,400 recruits rotating through the course at any one time as they mobilise to meet a target of training up to 10,000 Ukrainian personnel every 120 days. Training is 6am to 10 pm each day.
"If the Ukrainians ask for more, we'll be open to more," Mr Wallace said. Asked how many, he said: "We could do thousands and thousands."

With speed a priority given their country is at war, the Ukrainian recruits are being turned into infantrymen at a much faster pace than any peacetime British recruits.

It typically takes six months to pass basic infantry training for soldiers in the UK; the Ukrainians are set to rotate through the course in a matter of weeks.

"The first cohort of Ukrainian soldiers taking part in a major new UK-led military programme, which will train up to 10,000 Ukrainians over the coming months, have arrived in the UK.
The programme is part of the UK’s enduring commitment to support Ukraine in its fight against Russia’s unprovoked invasion, which so far amounts to more than £2.3 billion in military aid and includes more than 5,000 NLAW anti-tank weapons and M270 multiple launch rocket systems.
Defence Secretary Ben Wallace, who visited the training this week, said: "This ambitious new training programme is the next phase in the UK’s support to the Armed Forces of Ukraine in their fight against Russian aggression. Using the world-class expertise of the British Army we will help Ukraine to rebuild its forces and scale-up its resistance as they defend their country’s sovereignty and their right to choose their own future."
Around 1,050 UK service personnel are deploying to run the programme, which will take place at MOD sites across the North West, South West and South East of the UK. Each course will last several weeks and will be conducted by elements from 11 Security Force Assistance Brigade .
The training will give volunteer recruits with little to no military experience the skills to be effective in frontline combat. Based on the UK’s basic soldier training, the course covers weapons handling, battlefield first aid, fieldcraft, patrol tactics and the Law of Armed Conflict.
The Government has rapidly procured AK variant assault rifles for the training programme, meaning Ukrainian soldiers can train on the weapons they will be using on the front line. This effort was supported by the Welsh Guards who tested more than 2,400 such rifles in 17 days to ensure they were ready for the Ukrainians to commence their training.
The UK has also gifted clothing and equipment to support Ukrainian soldiers in their training and deployment back to Ukraine. Each soldier will be issued with:
Personal protective equipment including helmets, body armour, eye protectors, ear protectors, pelvic protection, and individual first aid kits
Field uniforms and boots
Cold and wet weather clothing
Bergens, day sacks and webbing
Additional equipment required for field conditions including ponchos, sleeping bags, and entrenching tools
The UK has a long history of supporting Ukrainian service personnel through Operation Orbital / Операція Орбітал which trained 22,000 Ukrainians between 2015 and 2022. The new programme will build on this success and demonstrate the UK’s continued leadership in responding to Ukraine’s military requirements as the war evolves.
Текст / Text : ©Crown copyright https://www.gov.uk/.../defence-secretary-ben-wallace...

 

[Ishmael]

Looks like the HIMARS are starting to really punch.

 

[Kiwing]

Does this signal the beginning of the change of the war? The Austrian analysis above was very bad for Ukraine. Will these weapons (with enough missiles) turn the tables? I really hope so. I wont be happy until Poo tin is driven back to the preinvasion boundaries, plus a bit. Loosing Snake Island and Crimea would be good too?

 

[Terry Hollis]

If NATO destroys Russia the world will immediately have a serious oil and gas shortage, from the Wests point of view it is better to feed Ukraine with just enough weapons to hold the present status until they can get their alternative supply lines sorted, I don't see this happening this year.

Once the West has it's supply organised it will destroy Russia which will then become another version of North Korea until it get responsible leadership.

 

[chesirecat]

'Serhiy Bratchuk, spokesman of the #Odesa regional administration, reports that three #Russian ammunition bases in different regions have been destroyed yesterday. Thus, #Ukraine has already destroyed more than 14 Russian ammunition bases within a week."

Additionally, a local journo (lost his name for the mo) reported RU base near Nayry (Kherson) was hit resulting in some 300 RU killed with munitions and vehicles.

And today. Fairly serious munitions dump going up

 

[Ishmael]

 

[Rain Man]

If NATO destroys Russia the world will immediately have a serious oil and gas shortage, from the Wests point of view it is better to feed Ukraine with just enough weapons to hold the present status until they can get their alternative supply lines sorted, I don't see this happening this year.

Once the West has it's supply organised it will destroy Russia which will then become another version of North Korea until it get responsible leadership.

What evidence do you have that the West wants to do anything more than put Russia back within its 2014 borders and keep it there? Doing anything more than that risks the pushing of a few red buttons.