Ukraine

[dogwatch]

Once the West has it's supply organised it will destroy Russia which will then become another version of North Korea until it get responsible leadership.

There have been a few attempts to destroy Russia. None worked and that was before it was nuclear-tipped. There is zero chance the west would either attempt or succeed in destroying Russia.

 

[LeoV]

Good thread on effect of HIMARs.

 

[Terry Hollis]

What evidence do you have that the West wants to do anything more than put Russia back within its 2014 borders and keep it there? Doing anything more than that risks the pushing of a few red buttons.

No one on this site has any evidence about what is going on between Russia and Ukraine, everyone gives their opinion.

There have been a few attempts to destroy Russia. None worked and that was before it was nuclear-tipped. There is zero chance the west would either attempt or succeed in destroying Russia.

Once the West stops buying oil and gas from Russia and provides Ukraine with sufficient weapons, Russia will run out of money which is destruction, hopefully the people of Russia will understand that their leader was a madman and the leadership will settle down.

If they continue to be lead by a madman Russia will become a pariah state like North Korea which is also lead by a madman.

 

[dogwatch]

Russia will run out of money which is destruction

You are talking about poverty. What happened to Mariupol is destruction. If you must use words in other than their accepted meaning, we will be reduced to grunting at each other like Neanderthals. Or teenage boys.

 

[LeoV]

It was 75 days ago the Gerard SPAAG were promised. Enough time to be trained on it.

 

[Mark_K]

No one on this site has any evidence about what is going on between Russia and Ukraine, everyone gives their opinion.



Once the West stops buying oil and gas from Russia and provides Ukraine with sufficient weapons, Russia will run out of money which is destruction, hopefully the people of Russia will understand that their leader was a madman and the leadership will settle down.

If they continue to be lead by a madman Russia will become a pariah state like North Korea which is also lead by a madman.

Economic determinism is tricky stuff to apply in wars. As long as a country doesn't need to buy anything from other countries, which only usually happens in very big states with all the natural resources, the need international currency is practically zero. Such a nation can establish its own internal economy.

There are also more markets than the West. China and India are purchasing oil at a steep discount from Russia, and that just may be all the international currency they need.

 

[LeoV]

American MLRS HIMARS have changed the rules of the game, but we need more weapons - Defense Minister Alexei Reznikov "The occupiers use MLRS, which can hit 120 kilometers. Therefore, we need MLRS with a range of up to 150 km and deliveries of armored vehicles, tanks and drones."

I say give it them. And the coordinates for the Kerch bridge.

 

[Ishmael]

American MLRS HIMARS have changed the rules of the game, but we need more weapons - Defense Minister Alexei Reznikov "The occupiers use MLRS, which can hit 120 kilometers. Therefore, we need MLRS with a range of up to 150 km and deliveries of armored vehicles, tanks and drones."

I say give it them. And the coordinates for the Kerch bridge.

I wonder how accurate Google Earth is.

 

[Kiwing]

10 metres max inaccuracy

 

[phill_nz]

im not sure taking out the kerch bridge is a good idea tactically

imltho taking it out forces them to put so much more into defending and increasing the land bridge
which means a harder road to kerson and the crimea

leaving it unscathed and not even looking like touching it .. till they have cut the land bridge as far as genichesk or pref melitopol .. then take it out
would be a better choice in the end

and even then leaving the timing till something of value is where you are going to hit it when you hit it

 

[Kiwing]

Depends whether you are going forward or backwards in the long term. At the moment Ukraine seems to be taking back wards steps to save their buildings. Waiting for the better trained (on new weapons) troops and more new weapons. This, one would hope will turn the tide. Seeing Russian amo depots exploding does give a little more hope.

 

[Stingray~]

I would like to see a fair and independently-monitored vote in Crimea, about how they want to be governed. Maybe the same in Luhansk and Donetsk. Would any of us want to be in this brutal crossfire?

My guess is that those regions would choose to be largely independent of both RUS and UKR.

 

[Rain Man]

I would like to see a fair and independently-monitored vote in Crimea, about how they want to be governed. Maybe the same in Luhansk and Donetsk. Would any of us want to be in this brutal crossfire?

My guess is that those regions would choose to be largely independent of both RUS and UKR.

Really? No argument over Crimea, but for the others it would only go for independence because the Russians exterminated most of the population of Mariupol and took the survivors to camps in Russia.

How about Russia withdraws all their troops and equipment, any displaced residents are allowed to return, and then we have the vote.

My guess is while it might have gone to independence before this war, it will go to Ukraine now.

 

[Terry Hollis]

Economic determinism is tricky stuff to apply in wars. As long as a country doesn't need to buy anything from other countries, which only usually happens in very big states with all the natural resources, the need international currency is practically zero. Such a nation can establish its own internal economy.

There are also more markets than the West. China and India are purchasing oil at a steep discount from Russia, and that just may be all the international currency they need.

I think you are overlooking the restrictions that the West has placed on the international monetary system, Russia can't be paid large amounts in USD, it has to be Russian Rubles, which also means that China and India will have to export their goods to a limited market to acquire the Rubles if they choose to trade with Russia.

 

[LeoV]

Funny, India is said to be exporting more oil and oil products, what a surprise.
normally it was already the largest export sector.
So Russian oil, cheaply bought by India, can end up in Europe. Not really a problem I think if they really get it dirt cheap.

India Exports By Category

Trading Economics provides data for 20 million economic indicators from 196 countries including actual values, consensus figures, forecasts, historical time series and news. India Exports By Category - was last updated on Monday, July 11, 2022.

tradingeconomics.com

 

[dogwatch]

FWIW India's services exports exceed oil and gas by a country mile, which won't surprise anyone who works in IT. If they are reexporting Russian oil, sanction the fuckers, including no more visas. That'll concentrate their minds.

 

[barfy]

I would like to see a fair and independently-monitored vote in Crimea, about how they want to be governed. Maybe the same in Luhansk and Donetsk. Would any of us want to be in this brutal crossfire?

My guess is that those regions would choose to be largely independent of both RUS and UKR.

Really? Of course you would sign up for any country to get out of the "brutal crossfire", good luck really. You must think often of the succession of the GOP holdings in your country. I hope your hand wringing gets you out of jail when things start to get "brutal" around you.

 

[LeoV]

Yesterday at about 21.30 in the Crimea, in the city of Sudak, Russian soldiers were beaten. They undergo treatment there and sanatoriums. They went out to the city for a walk. They were dressed in civilian clothes - shorts, caps with the letter Z. This is what a group of local youth did not like. Source MedvedevVesti on Telegram.

I guess this is a no in the referendum someone wants.

 

[Mark_K]

I think you are overlooking the restrictions that the West has placed on the international monetary system, Russia can't be paid large amounts in USD, it has to be Russian Rubles, which also means that China and India will have to export their goods to a limited market to acquire the Rubles if they choose to trade with Russia.

I doubt Putin stresses overmuch with that. Russia is big enough to be self-contained, they have the raw materials, a history of major industrial production, and a tech sector. He will rationalize isolation as a potential boon to domestic production. Not unlike ourselves, cheap imports poses significant problems for domestic industry for them too.

 

[LeoV]

I doubt Putin has any understanding of how autarky will work out. He has to trust his economical advisors.
And so far his advisors does not have a stellar track record.