Ukraine

[LeoV]

Relatively quiet 24hrs again.
Russia did send some missiles to Odessa, plane launched. Probably infrastructure damage.
Some S300 to Mikolyiv. Port infrastructure appearantly. Been hit for 4 months now.
Arty, rockets and maybe a missile to Kharkiv. Civilian damage only. Another night of terror attacks.

Ukraine hit ammo dump in the South, tank farm in the East, fuel storage facility in the Budonivskyi district of Donetsk, and the port of Byrdiansk.

Front lines not really changed. In the East some Russian gains of a few km, in the East Ukrainian advances.

 

[LeoV]

Before the war, 55% of Germany's gas came from Russia and 27% of its energy came from gas. It's unlikely private homes will freeze. Gas-intensive industries having to shut down is however a distinct possibility.

In the end if Europe has a difficult winter that will mean the end of Russia as part of the European economic system.

 

[dogwatch]

I don’t know if it is quiet or not. Ukraine has pretty much disappeared from the news in the UK. It’s all the PM candidate debates and travel disruption.

 

[dogwatch]

In the end if Europe has a difficult winter that will mean the end of Russia as part of the European economic system.

Yes but I think that’s now a given anyway. Funny, it’s only 5 years ago that Gasprom was sponsoring World Sailing.

 

[LeoV]

There are far left and far right groups still willing to deal with Russia. But after a freezing winter that appetite will sour.

 

[barfy]

 

[Fiji Bitter]

I don’t know if it is quiet or not. Ukraine has pretty much disappeared from the news in the UK. It’s all the PM candidate debates and travel disruption.

You seem to read the "wrong" papers, like the Spectator.

A quality paper like The Guardian has full coverage. Admittedly, they are not so much intersted in the Conservative power struggle, but cover that rather well nevertheless.

News, sport and opinion from the Guardian's global edition | The Guardian

Latest international news, sport and comment from the Guardian

www.theguardian.com

 

[barfy]

You seem to read the "wrong" papers, like the Spectator.

A quality paper like The Guardian has full coverage. Admittedly, they are not so much intersted in the Conservative power struggle, but cover that rather well nevertheless.

News, sport and opinion from the Guardian's global edition | The Guardian

Latest international news, sport and comment from the Guardian

www.theguardian.com

https://www.theguardian.com/international

I assume you are talking to the ghost of spewbot. All gone for me, even tho not on Iggy. It's kind of like a poltergeist, you never see it, just some rattling cutlery and an unpleasant smell

 

[dogwatch]

I read the Guardian daily and I stand by my comments. Until recently there was a whole section daily on UKR, now there is page or two. Same in the Times which I also read daily.

 

[Fiji Bitter]

I assume you are talking to the ghost of spewbot. All gone for me, even tho not on Iggy. It's kind of like a poltergeist, you never see it, just some rattling cutlery and an unpleasant smell

No, Spew @Stingray~ is hiding for me too.

Dogwatch @dogwatch must have you on ignore for some odd reason. He had me on ignore for a while too, but must have realised the mistake.

Anyway, Dogwatch said:
"I don’t know if it is quiet or not. Ukraine has pretty much disappeared from the news in the UK. It’s all the PM candidate debates and travel disruption".

PS. Doggy obviously doesn't see your post, but you don't see that either...
It's stupid and disrupts the forum debate, but if you are curious then log out, or get an old sock out of the drawer.

 

[barfy]

No, Spew @Stingray~ is hiding for me too.

Dogwatch @dogwatch must have you on ignore for some odd reason. He had me on ignore for a while too, but must have realised the mistake.

Anyway, Dogwatch said:
"I don’t know if it is quiet or not. Ukraine has pretty much disappeared from the news in the UK. It’s all the PM candidate debates and travel disruption".

And yes, the Guardian has done an excellent job of always having a live Ukraine blog, plus a dedicated section on the war. For half a year, bravo!

 

[LeoV]

Germany delivered: 3 MARS-II MLRS (M270), 3 extra PzH 2000 (now 7), 5 from 30 Gepard. Training has also began in both Cobra Counter Battery Radar and Iris-T SLM air defense missile system.

Getting late to the party, but with serious firework.

 

[estarzinger]

Whilst that bridge may(?) be structurally safe

As I am sure you know well, it is the rail bridge that is the most strategically important, and unfortunately, the hardest to get a solid hit on (because of its structural design).

On a different topic - I thought everyone had put the idea of A10's to Ukr away, for being quite vulnerable to modern AA espically without complete air supremacy, and for logistical issues. But I have heard it again several places recently. I guess the thinking is that in order to make an effective counter-attack Ukr would greatly benefit from some close air support capability and people are searching around for a way to provide that - what do you think would be the most effective way (without starting ww3) to provide that capability (or do you not think it is a priority)?

I believe Sevastopol is out of range anyway with missiles supplied to date.

yes. I personally think the current (apparently) decision to withhold ATACMS is poorly reasoned and that they should be provided. I am usually in the 'wiser heads are somewhat conservative' camp, but the logic of this particular decision to withhold seems ill thought out. I would suggest essentially send them all (or at least half) the US has (which is not vast quantities but certainly enough to make a significant difference far into the Russia rear logistics) and the US military should use just a small part of their extremely huge military budget to get production started of the (already approved but not yet in production) replacement/improved generation going asap.

Ukr has shown excellent targeting using the shorter range version; and while I think we can trust they will not attack targets we forbid (like in Russia proper), I am not sure why we don't consider those possibly valid targets (eg command centers, rail switching points, and ammo dumps within range in Russia) for Ukr. I can imagine not wanting Ukr to hit targets in say Belarus, as that gets more complicated, although in US wars we have quite often 'covertly' (eg everyone on the ground knew we were doing but it was not acknowledged) it hit targets in 3rd party countries like that when we thought it useful. But Russia is the direct enemy invading country and military assets on their soil would seem to me to be perfectly valid targets. I would just want them to be given our best targeting intel (which they seem to be doing) and to be even more careful than the US military typically is to hit exclusively military targets.

 

[Rennmaus]

Germany delivered: 3 MARS-II MLRS (M270), 3 extra PzH 2000 (now 7), 5 from 30 Gepard. Training has also began in both Cobra Counter Battery Radar and Iris-T SLM air defense missile system.

Getting late to the party, but with serious firework.

Eventually. Good

 

[Rain Man]

What, gas? I have a cord of wood coming, to add to my silly survivalist pile. But seriously, if Germany can't get gas this winter, well... Folks are gonna freeze! It's a scary potential.

I have 'bragged' about the nicely moderate Seattle-area summer so far but starting tomorrow we are gonna cook for 3 days, will be around 95F. Yikes... No firewood will help that, just a big electric bill to keep the A/C cranked, hope it can keep up.

Freezing this winter will wake up the population that Europe is at war. There has been considerable denial to this point.

 

[Rain Man]

If the UA gets HARMS A-10's could be useful. Not sure what can be done about Manpads though.

 

[Stingray~]

That'll help the energy shortage and global warming

Am lucky enough to be using hydropower for electricity.

 

[Stingray~]

Before the war, 55% of Germany's gas came from Russia and 27% of its energy came from gas. It's unlikely private homes will freeze. Gas-intensive industries having to shut down is however a distinct possibility.

What do most German homes use for winter heating, electricity? Many in my area do too, although some like myself use natural gas for that.

My vague understanding is that Germany uses gas also for producing electricity, and so gas supply cuts will affect the availability also of electricity?

My hope is that what Russia says about this latest supply cut from 40% to 20% really is what they say, that it is technical/temporary and not energy-weaponization, but even if the former then the latter remains a vulnerability down the road regardless.

 

[Ex Machina]

Freezing this winter will wake up the population that Europe is at war. There has been considerable denial to this point.

Yep if they are having heat waves this summer they are bound to have freezing waves this winter

 

[dogwatch]

What do most German homes use for winter heating, electricity?

Mostly gas, apparently.