Ukraine

[LeoV]

News from Kherson, do not expect a quick victory of Ukraine there. Russia is building up a big army there. 50 to 70K man.
Instead of retreating to a defensible line behind the river, they are going all in. Crazy amount in such a small area.
This are all the army groups that try to position themselves there, most are in place. But not in full strength.

 

[Rennmaus]

Besides their own domestic needs Europe may have to find a way to supply about a third of Ukraines NG needs this winter. Gotta hunch Vladi ain't gonna sell them any and Ukraine's domestic production is about 2/3rds of what they use.

UKR has offered to supply nuclear electricity to EU. They've already started with Romania.

 

[barfy]

News from Kherson, do not expect a quick victory of Ukraine there. Russia is building up a big army there. 50 to 70K man.
Instead of retreating to a defensible line behind the river, they are going all in. Crazy amount in such a small area.
This are all the army groups that try to position themselves there, most are in place. But not in full strength.

That's just a double down strategy that will not go well in the end. Almost sorry for the orcs who are in eminent danger cut off from supplies.
What other stable genius does that remind me of?

 

[barfy]

@LeoV Thank you for your contribution here by collating your research and presenting it for us.

 

[enigmatically2]

News from Kherson, do not expect a quick victory of Ukraine there. Russia is building up a big army there. 50 to 70K man.
Instead of retreating to a defensible line behind the river, they are going all in. Crazy amount in such a small area.
This are all the army groups that try to position themselves there, most are in place. But not in full strength.

Somewhere, someone in the Russian leadership is comparing this to Stalingrad. Forgetting that they suffered 1.1m military casualties for that victory. Let's hope it doesn't go as well for them.

Dictatorships do tend to go for the no retreat, fight to the last me sort of thing. Whereas democracies tend to be more careful with their soldiers

 

[Mark_K]

That's just a double down strategy that will not go well in the end. Almost sorry for the orcs who are in eminent danger cut off from supplies.
What other stable genius does that remind me of?

It's not quite as stupid as it looks as the Russians are compelled to defend that area, the tough logistics notwithstanding, by the need to keep the water flowing to Crimea. I had thought a better plan would be to fall back across the river and give up the city of Kherson as that's some ways away from the dam where the water is diverted. However multiple reports show the Russians shifted about a dozen BTGs west across the river using the rail bridge over the dam. The risk of that indicates the Russians believe they must hold both sides of that river.

IMO the strategy of both sides is now shaped around attrition of the other guy's forces, so this could be exactly what the Ukrainians were hoping for, forcing the Russians to place a lot of forces within range of their artillery. If so they will stand back and pelt, not try to invade the Russian occupied area on the west side of the river for several weeks, maybe a month or more, while harassing that logistical train everywhere they can all along the route from Donetsk city. They have partisans in there and it's all in range of artillery placed in Ukrainian occupied territory.

 

[Monkey]

UKR has offered to supply nuclear electricity to EU. They've already started with Romania.

The problem there is that the EU would have to rely on the power plants and assorted infrastructure not getting blown up.

 

[LeoV]

Nova Kakhovka dam, lock/road/rail was the target a few days ago. Road repaired with concrete slabs, single rail still out of function.
Looks like reinforcements by train are out for now. All by road and ferry now.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FY-239aXgAAFD9u?format=jpg&name=medium

 

[LeoV]

Russia will keep the big arty on the East Bank. The staggering numbers of Russian army planned could be in problem with supply lines.
Some intel speculate that Russia will send only man and light armour in. For a fighting slow retreat if needed.
There have been reports of tanks moving on the West bank to other fortified positions 40 km away. Seems to point to not more tanks being send in. And on East bank near Kherson a shipyard is confiscated, only military personnel welcome. Points to a ferry service with small boats.

Will be the first battle with more even weaponry. And the satellite intel will help pinpoint static strategic points.

 

[Stingray~]

It's not quite as stupid as it looks as the Russians are compelled to defend that area, the tough logistics notwithstanding, by the need to keep the water flowing to Crimea. I had thought a better plan would be to fall back across the river and give up the city of Kherson as that's some ways away from the dam where the water is diverted. However multiple reports show the Russians shifted about a dozen BTGs west across the river using the rail bridge over the dam. The risk of that indicates the Russians believe they must hold both sides of that river.

There must surely be a possibility that, while holding both sides of the river is important for RU, that massing forces in the area is part of a larger strategy to decimate Mykolaiv next, on the way to Odesa.

 

[Mark_K]

There must surely be a possibility that, while holding both sides of the river is important for RU, that massing forces in the area is part of a larger strategy to decimate Mykolaiv next, on the way to Odesa.

It's possible, but I think it much more likely they are into attriting the Ukrainian armed forces these days. IMO the notion of taking of all of the Ukraine has been shelved. No further territorial ambitions down south. They want the rest of the Donetsk oblast though.

 

[Steam Flyer]

It's possible, but I think it much more likely they are into attriting the Ukrainian armed forces these days. IMO the notion of taking of all of the Ukraine has been shelved. No further territorial ambitions down south. They want the rest of the Donetsk oblast though.

I dunno, it does not make sense to mass troops in an area you -know- is well covered by enemy artillery, unless you are planning a big offensive push. Maybe Putin thinks they can take Odessa?

 

[Mark_K]

I dunno, it does not make sense to mass troops in an area you -know- is well covered by enemy artillery, unless you are planning a big offensive push. Maybe Putin thinks they can take Odessa?

It makes sense for the Russians to deploy forces to counter a Ukrainian offensive.

 

[Stingray~]

I dunno, it does not make sense to mass troops in an area you -know- is well covered by enemy artillery, unless you are planning a big offensive push. Maybe Putin thinks they can take Odessa?

Mykolaiv took 4 hours of intense missile strikes last night and Odesa continues to take strikes too. Seems obvious the RU plan is to continue west no matter how long it takes or else why lay waste to those cities?

 

[LeoV]

Nobody knows from a distance. Russian troop movements are to large to be a deception.
Is it offensive or defensive for Crimea ? They need to stop Himars and ukr army getting closer. With the latest atrocities by Russia they are probably weary that Ukr get a hand on Russian citizens.

Hard to think of an offensive is this is the main transport for half the frontline.

 

[Stingray~]

It’s possible that a big new RU supply line will ramp up after UKR de-mines the Port of Odesa and it becomes largely defenseless from invasion be sea. Do you honestly trust RU about the ‘grain’ situation? The shipments could happen but under RU control.

 

[phill_nz]

It’s possible that a big new RU supply line will ramp up after UKR de-mines the Port of Odesa and it becomes largely defenseless from invasion be sea. Do you honestly trust RU about the ‘grain’ situation? The shipments could happen but under RU control.

not sure that will work well

mine fields can be huge in size and take ages to lay

cleared areas / lanes for transit can be very small and easily closed and or changed at short notice

 

[enigmatically2]

Plus the RU navy has been shown to be vulnerable to anti-ship missiles. Imagine how vulnerable the amphibs would be.
Opposed amphib landings are the most complex form of warfare, that would be a hell of a stretch

 

[Ease the sheet.]

It's not quite as stupid as it looks as the Russians are compelled to defend that area, the tough logistics notwithstanding, by the need to keep the water flowing to Crimea. I had thought a better plan would be to fall back across the river and give up the city of Kherson as that's some ways away from the dam where the water is diverted. However multiple reports show the Russians shifted about a dozen BTGs west across the river using the rail bridge over the dam. The risk of that indicates the Russians believe they must hold both sides of that river.

IMO the strategy of both sides is now shaped around attrition of the other guy's forces, so this could be exactly what the Ukrainians were hoping for, forcing the Russians to place a lot of forces within range of their artillery. If so they will stand back and pelt, not try to invade the Russian occupied area on the west side of the river for several weeks, maybe a month or more, while harassing that logistical train everywhere they can all along the route from Donetsk city. They have partisans in there and it's all in range of artillery placed in Ukrainian occupied territory.

The damage done to the city to root out the defenders makes one think long and hard about actually attacking.

A mass of soldiers like that screams "artillery target". That won't end well for the locals....

 

[breezie]

The damage done to the city to root out the defenders makes one think long and hard about actually attacking.

A mass of soldiers like that screams "artillery target". That won't end well for the locals....

altho this, while true is somewhat mitigated by the use of precision artillery