Ukraine

[enigmatically2]

The nuclear threat rhetoric is certainly escalating:

Jake Sullivan: US will act ‘decisively’ if Russia uses nuclear weapons in Ukraine​

US national security adviser says: ‘Any use of nuclear weapons will be met with catastrophic consequences for Russia’

Jake Sullivan: US will act ‘decisively’ if Russia uses nuclear weapons in Ukraine

US national security adviser says: ‘Any use of nuclear weapons will be met with catastrophic consequences for Russia’

www.theguardian.com

Most credible sources say that if RU used a tactical nuke, NATO will engage with conventional forces rather than WMD, but on a pretty large scale.

And China will abandon any support for RU.

 

[enigmatically2]

Lots of analysis that the balance of force is tipping more and more in UKr favour.

In particular the RU soldiers have all now had 180+ days on frontline because they are not rotating, whereas UKr forces are. 140-180 days is considered a breakpoint at which combat effectiveness drops dramatically.

UKr has more coming in being trained in west, RU has drunkards and old people who will not cope with winter very especially with the appalling logistics they have. And these new troops are getting even worse equipment than there predecessors.


Though UKr still not having it all their own way- one attack near Kherson got beaten back fairly hard

 

[Sailbydate]

Random blue sky thought:

Now that Putin is having his arse kicked, is it possible his referenda are designed to give him an excuse to withdraw from the war and save face with Russians? If, only 1 in 5 inhabitants in the occupied territories are voting and of those, 65% are voting for Ukraine masters (as I've seen reported somewhere today) maybe he can go back to 'his people' and say, "They don't want us after all - so we're out."

Is it possible his survival instinct is driven by that kind of strategic thinking?

Flame away...

 

[Stingray~]

Random blue sky thought:

Now that Putin is having his arse kicked, is it possible his referenda are designed to give him an excuse to withdraw from the war and save face with Russians? If, only 1 in 5 inhabitants in the occupied territories are voting and of those, 65% are voting for Ukraine masters (as I've seen reported somewhere today) maybe he can go back to 'his people' and say, "They don't want us after all - so we're out."

Is it possible his survival instinct is driven by that kind of strategic thinking?

Flame away...

Fun idea but… All signs point to an escalation instead

 

[dogwatch]

Random blue sky thought:

Now that Putin is having his arse kicked, is it possible his referenda are designed to give him an excuse to withdraw from the war and save face with Russians? If, only 1 in 5 inhabitants in the occupied territories are voting and of those, 65% are voting for Ukraine masters (as I've seen reported somewhere today) maybe he can go back to 'his people' and say, "They don't want us after all - so we're out."

Is it possible his survival instinct is driven by that kind of strategic thinking?

Flame away...

Not really, as soldiers are rounding up voters, voting is non-secret and names are apparently taken of those voting the "wrong" way.

 

[Kiwing]

@Sailbydate I like this out of left field approach but is it too intelligent for Poo tin?

 

[Sailbydate]

Not really, as soldiers are rounding up voters, voting is non-secret and names are apparently taken of those voting the "wrong" way.

What might happen to those, voting the "wrong" way? Could that many citizens just disappear?

 

[enigmatically2]

What might happen to those, voting the "wrong" way? Could that many citizens just disappear?

Judging by what's happening elsewhere they find themselves in the front line.

Ru police in Moscow etc are handing protesters mobilisation papers, and in Crimea they have mobilised 5000 people - 90% of which are Crimean tartars (who resisted the original invasion).

Shit for the people, but you can imagine what morale will be like in Ru army. Who many will defect/surrender at first opportunity?

Drunks, blind people, opponents, criminals, the old.

As Wellington said for rather different reasons,
"I don't know what effect these men will have on the enemy, but by God, they terrify me"

 

[Mid]

Could that many citizens just disappear?

you really need to ask ?

the answer is yes .

 

[dogwatch]

What might happen to those, voting the "wrong" way? Could that many citizens just disappear?

They don't have to disappear for taking names to be effective. Being frightened of something bad happening to you is enough. In Putin's Russia you can be a wealthy public figure and still find yourself in an unheated prison cell for an indefinite period. That would be enough to frighten me.

 

[enigmatically2]

On the other hand, there a lot of videos and other reports of significant demonstrations against the mobilisation in Russia- even man-handling police to free someone. A lot more pushback than Ru is used to

 

[dogwatch]

Yes and I admire those demonstrators. I'd more likely be heading for the border.

 

[Mid]

I'd more likely be heading for the border.

move ya fokin arse , else you'll have foot prints up ya back ...

 

[Stingray~]

Shit for the people, but you can imagine what morale will be like in Ru army. Who many will defect/surrender at first opportunity?

Prez Z said yesterday he will welcome all who surrender when they reach UKR. Smart move, let's hope it gets a lot of uptake. For some who are unwilling to fight, that may be their best option as the easiest border to cross.

 

[MR.CLEAN]

Spoke to a client advisor today in St. Petersburg who is planning to leave in two weeks. Has his tickets already, and is 'not really fit for military duty' despite being 26 years old, which means he has plenty of money and/or connections.

 

[Mark_K]

Spoke to a client advisor today in St. Petersburg who is planning to leave in two weeks. Has his tickets already, and is 'not really fit for military duty' despite being 26 years old, which means he has plenty of money and/or connections.

Why is he waiting two weeks? With this rush to the exits happening Putin could close the borders at any moment.

 

[enigmatically2]

Some are already closing I hear

 

[Stingray~]

Some are already closing I hear

Ukraine closed their borders to males trying to exit many months ago, would not surprise me if RU does exactly the same. I hope Clean's friend makes it out asap.

Back on Feb 24 or so I took some heat here for suggesting that folks in UKR who wanted to avoid the fighting should be first in line at the exits. Truth is, war is not for everyone.... gender and age is not all that matters.

 

[chesirecat]

They don't have to disappear for taking names to be effective. Being frightened of something bad happening to you is enough. In Putin's Russia you can be a wealthy public figure and still find yourself in an unheated prison cell for an indefinite period. That would be enough to frighten me.

This year's list - bit out of date, I believe there's been at least a couple more.

 

[estarzinger]

was just talking with my friend in Odessa. He said they have been hit by Iranian drones each of the past 3 nights. As far as he knows, causing no significant military damage, but is un-nerving for the civilian population.