Ukraine

[Ex Machina]

He is wacko, but the change in messaging is interesting. From the start where it was RUssia is all powerful, we can beat UKr and NATO if they get involved. It will all be over in days. Now this worrying about mobilisation, satellites, drones, armour & clothing

Interesting how he’s changed out his Star Wars/Hugo boss SS jacket for a kharharrtikov moose hunting jacket . Those folks on that show really are subliminal brainwashing mouthpieces

 

[enigmatically2]

Wiping out all Russian assets in Ukraine in a week with some F35s was ridiculous, so responded in kind.

Fair.
It is true though that a Nato air strike would quickly do a lot of damage to Ru forces. Though not without loss or risk

 

[Mark_K]

Fair.
It is true though that a Nato air strike would quickly do a lot of damage to Ru forces. Though not without loss or risk

Deploying conventional assets in a place where the other guys have already shown a willingness to use nukes would be absurd.

Unless you're willing to go nuklar combat toe to toe with the Rooskies, you stay out of that kitchen.

 

[enigmatically2]

At some point you have to be prepared to stand up to a bully like Russia. If that is not them using a Nuke I'm not sure when it is. If not then Georgia or Estonia will be next. Will you be prepared to fight then?

Nebenzia's address to UN even complained that UKr were trying to disrupt their mobilisation. Amazing

 

[Ex Machina]

Deploying conventional assets in a place where the other guys have already shown a willingness to use nukes would be absurd.

Unless you're willing to go nuklar combat toe to toe with the Rooskies, you stay out of that kitchen.

I think nato and the US are at the kitchen door and prepared for any eventuality and ready to act immediately

 

[Stingray~]

The location of the pipeline is so well documented, and bottom scanning to find it is well within the ability of equipment common on trawlers and other sorts of fishermen these days, I would guess that was the way the charges were set. Externally. No need for anyone's sophisticated naval assets to do this.

Both ends are deep in infrastructure of the facilities, a lot of people would have to be in on it to do it with pigs, and an internal explosion would be unmistakable in an investigation, which as assured.

That makes good sense.

One concern around this attack, by whoever and done externally by for example those kinds of vessels, is if it portends the chance other pipelines may get nailed too. Denmark has a similar pipeline supplying gas to Europe and Norway's pipe is the single largest supplier.

 

[chesirecat]

Fair.
It is true though that a Nato air strike would quickly do a lot of damage to Ru forces. Though not without loss or risk

That's not really the primary job for an F35. Its ideal mission is penetrating air defence systems, taking them out, allowing other aircraft to do the damage, A10's or whatever. It provides outstanding situational awareness, acts as a major data hub and exchange between aircraft and mission control, and guides other aircraft into the targets. If say an F15 is radar spotted 100 miles away then an F35 might be detected 10 miles away. An RAF Typhoon shot down a small drone in Syria with an Asraam and the F35 is less detectable, which gives some idea of its radar profile.

NATO (Nothing After Two Oclock) is purely defensive and a member hasn't been invaded, so doubt they would come in although if RU went nuclear then Article 5 would come in. The Allies would, those being US, UK, Poland plus Baltic states with maybes, and yes it would be game over for the RU airforce and Black Sea Fleet. You wouldn't want Germany since their armed forces wouldn't be able to get child care organised in time and they only fight 40 hour weeks anyway.

 

[Mark_K]

At some point you have to be prepared to stand up to a bully like Russia. If that is not them using a Nuke I'm not sure when it is. If not then Georgia or Estonia will be next. Will you be prepared to fight then?

Nebenzia's address to UN even complained that UKr were trying to disrupt their mobilisation. Amazing

Do you think Putin, after finding out the hard way his army was a Potemkin village, will be eager to go do this again?

 

[Stingray~]

At this timestamp, the guy says there are 18 more HIMARS going in.

 

[chesirecat]

At this timestamp, the guy says there are 18 more HIMARS going in.

And the US have ramped up munitions production lines. Wouldnt want to be an RU recruit knowing you can't relax at night

 

[barfy]

Both ends are deep in infrastructure of the facilities, a lot of people would have to be in on it to do it with pigs, and an internal explosion would be unmistakable in an investigation, which as assured.

?

 

[Ishmael]

At this timestamp, the guy says there are 18 more HIMARS going in.

Over the next two years, apparently. Not all at once tomorrow.

 

[barfy]

Maybe a bit loose, but anyway..

 

[FiveCapes]

Gift NYT article

"How we reported this story

As part of a monthslong investigation into atrocities committed during Russia’s campaign to seize Kyiv, reporters with The New York Times exclusively obtained more than 4,000 recordings of Russian soldiers’ phone calls intercepted in the Bucha area by Ukrainian law enforcement agencies...."

‘Putin Is a Fool’: Intercepted Calls Reveal Russian Army in Disarray

In phone calls to friends and relatives at home, Russian soldiers gave damning insider accounts of battlefield failures and civilian executions, excoriating their leaders just weeks into the campaign to take Kyiv.

www.nytimes.com

 

[dogwatch]

RUS soldiers who die in Ukraine will do so with all their sins expunged. It's official. https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/kirill-s-crusade-against-ukraine-is-more-jihadi-than-christian

 

[BrightAyes]

"Good Morning Comrades! Let me welcome each of you to the Russian Federation! We are happy you have join in our fight against the Facists Ukrainians. We are pleased you have freely chosen to join the Federation of your own free will, as expressed by your 99% Yes vote! Fantastic. You next step is to report to your nearest military deployment office and get ready to go kill some of your former friends and family! Victory to the Fatherland!

--Comrade V. Putin, Supreme Deity of the New Soviet Socialist Republics

 

[enigmatically2]

Belarusian troops mobilising against strong rumours that they have promised 100k troops to Putin. Will Belarusian troops rebel?

 

[Mambo Kings]

Deploying conventional assets in a place where the other guys have already shown a willingness to use nukes would be absurd.

Unless you're willing to go nuklar combat toe to toe with the Rooskies, you stay out of that kitchen.

The problem with tactical nukes is that you have to retreat to use them.
If the opposing side is advancing then you have to retreat quite far and very quickly.
If you are already close to your own border then that means .......

If your conventional forces are engaged with their conventional forces , and their conventional forces are reinforced and supplied such they can advance as fast as you retreat then it is nigh impossible to use tactical nukes in the front line. This leaves tactical nukes to hit the supply chain, which almost invariably means civilian targets and casualties.

Civilian targets and massive civilian casualties would leave Russia entirely isolated. Painful economic sanctions would be replaced by a complete shut down of any international trade. China would completely disassociate from Russia. Putin and anyone involved with the decision would be convicted of war crimes and face execution if caught traveling outside Russia after he is inevitably overthrown.

Putin is a survivor. He has accumulated vast wealth. He is cold and calculating. Is he going to risk it all?

 

[dogwatch]

Belarusian troops mobilising against strong rumours that they have promised 100k troops to Putin. Will Belarusian troops rebel?

FWIW, Lukashenko is denying. https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/no-mobilisation-belarus-lukashenko-says-2022-09-23/

 

[dogwatch]

Putin is a survivor. He has accumulated vast wealth. He is cold and calculating. Is he going to risk it all?

He already has.