Ukraine

dogwatch

Super Anarchist
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This info is already known since about a week. Maybe, hopefully, it's just a rumor.
I can't see what Lukashenko would gain by getting involved with the losing side in UKR when he seems right now to be successfully holding down his own democratic opposition. But assuming dictators behave rationally is a mugs game.
 
He already has.
The cynic in me notes that he has significantly increased his wealth as a result of the Ukraine war due to his extensive holdings in natural resource investments. The phrase "Wartime profiteer" barely manages to describe the man, who prepared his portfolio for a war....and then instigated that war himself.

There are 3 outcomes:
Russia wins.
Russia declares it has met its objectives and retreats.
Russia goes nuclear crazy.....launches nuclear weapons.....leading to escalation, direct war with Russia (which Russia loses) leading eventually to Putin's demise and war crime trial.

The cynic in me says that under option 2, there will be a lot of words but the West will ultimately leave Russia to itself and there will not be repercussions for Putin. When Putin steps down and hands over the reins to someone else (either a crime boss succesor, or an elected President), he will retire to one of his estates and re-engineer himself as the old man of Russia who navigated the aftermath of Perestroika. Doubtless, he will be persona non grata in many parts of the world but ultimately money talks and some smaller nations will succumb to the economic benefit of granting a tourist visa to one of the world's wealthiest criminals. Leblon - Brazil or Parrot Key - Turks and Caicos, Madagascar, Varadero- Cuba. With that much money, there are lots of places to stay.
 
@Mambo Kings you assume Putin cares about his own troops dying to a tac nuke on front line. Evidence suggests otherwise
I think that nuking your own troops would provoke a reaction back home that he would care about.

If foreign troops entered Russia? Defending the Motherland ? Maybe. As part of a special operation in a foreign country? I think odds are against.
 
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Stingray~

Super Anarchist
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Can't fathom even Putin using nukes for anything besides as retaliation against an imminent full-blown nuke attack threat. It's unthinkable.
 
Big Picture.

The war will ebb back and forth with extensive loss of life as wars do, but ultimately these things are determined by manpower, resources, technology and training.


Ukraine has more manpower. Russia's success in winning a quick special operation depended on its superpower status as possessing more technology and resources, used by well trained superior troops. If they dont have conventional weapon superiority (and it looks like Ukraine is getting rapidly supplied and trained) then mobilizing 300,000 more ill equipped Russian reservists is going to have no effect.
 

Mark_K

Super Anarchist
The problem with tactical nukes is that you have to retreat to use them.
If the opposing side is advancing then you have to retreat quite far and very quickly.
If you are already close to your own border then that means .......

If your conventional forces are engaged with their conventional forces , and their conventional forces are reinforced and supplied such they can advance as fast as you retreat then it is nigh impossible to use tactical nukes in the front line. This leaves tactical nukes to hit the supply chain, which almost invariably means civilian targets and casualties.

Civilian targets and massive civilian casualties would leave Russia entirely isolated. Painful economic sanctions would be replaced by a complete shut down of any international trade. China would completely disassociate from Russia. Putin and anyone involved with the decision would be convicted of war crimes and face execution if caught traveling outside Russia after he is inevitably overthrown.

Putin is a survivor. He has accumulated vast wealth. He is cold and calculating. Is he going to risk it all?

Unlikely for offense.

I suspect the noise coming from them reflects a realization they have close to everything in Ukraine, even the 4th Guards which was the show-piece for Moscow military parades, and the 4th Guards have been totally shredded. Moscow isn't very far away, and if totally defeated there would be nothing but nukes preventing the now million-man Ukrainian Army from marching not all that far north to Moscow.

Yup. He would use nukes to prevent that.
 

enigmatically2

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UKr won't cross the RU border (the real one, not the one Putin will declare tomorrow). NATO support doesn't allow it. They can strike but not cross in any force. I doubt they would want to
 

chesirecat

Super Anarchist
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Shoebox on M'way
Якість та стан ядерної зброї росії викликає питання, — Міністр оборони Олексій Резніков «А в якому стані цей мотлох у росії? Наші ракети «Сатана» у росії ще на озброєнні, ми їх робили понад 40 років тому. І постає запитання: хто їх обслуговує, за якими документами і скільки

"The quality and condition of Russia's nuclear weapons raises questions, — Minister of Defense Oleksiy Reznikov "And what is the state of this junk in Russia? Our Satan missiles are still in service in Russia, we made them more than 40 years ago. And the question arises: who serves them, according to which documents and how much"
 
We have suspect!


God help you.

Is she trying to prepare for a day job in stand up comedy?

For one thing, China has 420 million pigs at any one time and the fastest growth rate from piglet to pork of 150 days. They have multi-storey piggeries with 3,500 sows per farm. The average British pig farm brings no competitive advantage to the Chinese pork market.....they will get slaughtered.

But most of all it was the gormless grin on her face while she paused to wait for the light and incredulous applause, that worried me. Was she making a joke that had no punchline?

At this rate, the only competitive advantage that the UK will have over China will be a cheaper labor force.
 

Mark_K

Super Anarchist
God help you.

Is she trying to prepare for a day job in stand up comedy?

For one thing, China has 420 million pigs at any one time and the fastest growth rate from piglet to pork of 150 days. They have multi-storey piggeries with 3,500 sows per farm. The average British pig farm brings no competitive advantage to the Chinese pork market.....they will get slaughtered.

But most of all it was the gormless grin on her face while she paused to wait for the light and incredulous applause, that worried me. Was she making a joke that had no punchline?

At this rate, the only competitive advantage that the UK will have over China will be a cheaper labor force.
She may be.

 

Mark_K

Super Anarchist
Ah but as an example of the true competency level of the worlds politicians, she made it to be PM, un like yourself who will remain behind your non de plume on a two bit forum and never be remembered other than your momentary cheap shots.

Shall we get back to Ukraine ?
Go ahead and do so. Now that I have been informed no one who has not been elected to PM shall criticise your Dear Leader I will refrain from humorous comments about her in the future.
 




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