Yes... My guess anyway.
Ukraine
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I believe Norway has a massive pipe already installed and are close to being able to turn that on.
Mambo Kings
Super Anarchist
It does not make any strategic sense for Russia to blow up their own pipelines to Germany. They do not want to accelerate the reduction in German dependence on Russian gas.
Furthermore, Putin’s personal investment company and his St. Petersburg mob connections receive a percentage of the Nord 1 pipeline transit fees so any Russian involvement would endanger a high degree of personal risk of disappearance. Nord 2 is owned by Gasprom, so Putin’s interest is only indirect via his shareholding in Gasprom. But Nord 1 revenues are dear to his heart. This will piss him off.
Although Ukraine is the obvious beneficiary, it is hard to imagine Zelensky risking NATO support.
The Baltics would never blow up these pipelines because of the environmental impact.
Hopefully the US , the second largest gas producer, is not involved.
I lean towards a very anti-Russian NGA. Cannot think who.
Furthermore, Putin’s personal investment company and his St. Petersburg mob connections receive a percentage of the Nord 1 pipeline transit fees so any Russian involvement would endanger a high degree of personal risk of disappearance. Nord 2 is owned by Gasprom, so Putin’s interest is only indirect via his shareholding in Gasprom. But Nord 1 revenues are dear to his heart. This will piss him off.
Although Ukraine is the obvious beneficiary, it is hard to imagine Zelensky risking NATO support.
The Baltics would never blow up these pipelines because of the environmental impact.
Hopefully the US , the second largest gas producer, is not involved.
I lean towards a very anti-Russian NGA. Cannot think who.
slug zitski
Super Anarchist
Yes indeed
Europeans are growing tired of Americas proxy war and are looking for a negotiated way out
the gas line destruction disciplined them and forced the Europeans to buy overpriced American LNG
They are facing enormous fuel price increases and want solutions, obviously. But none of it is America's damn fault.
slug zitski
Super Anarchist
Wait until next year
German fertizer production has halted , next year millions of people in the global south will starve to death
collateral damage
German fertizer production has halted , next year millions of people in the global south will starve to death
collateral damage
enigmatically2
Super Anarchist
As usual you are talking crap. No lessening of support for UKr here. If anything Putin's actions and the increasing success of Ukr in defeating the ill-disciplined rabble that represents RU is strengthening it.
UK govt has already committed the provide at least as much help in 2023 as in 2022. I think it's the only announcement of our new govt that hasn't been heavily criticised
Mambo Kings
Super Anarchist
Agreed. It’s highly implausible. The USA cannot take advantage of European demand because we don’t have any surplus LPG carrying capacity. We like to see the Russian negotiating position get even weaker but frankly they didn’t have many chips in the first place.
Ineos were 5 years ahead of the game again and are a beneficiary
Mambo Kings
Super Anarchist
Except that American gas has has been significantly cheaper for over a decade. However only one European chemical company had the balls and foresight to order a fleet of LPG carriers. The German and French companies are fossils run by fossilized remains with a 6 month time horizon.
slug zitski
Super Anarchist
Spot LNG from america is about 6 times more expensive than the contracted Russian pipeline gas
Monkey
Super Anarchist
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It also doesn’t make any strategic sense for Putin to continue throwing his citizens and military equipment into a losing meat grinder, yet he keeps doing it. I wouldn’t put it past him to do it as a false flag operation. However, I’m still very much in the “no clue” camp of who did it.
enigmatically2
Super Anarchist
Given Putins liking for false flags we certainly can't rule Russia out. I think it would have to be a pretty large, well equipped non stage org because I think some are underestimating the difficulties.
So I think we are guessing.
More relevant perhaps is how many Russian troops are in the Lyman pocket. Estimates seem to range from 5000 to 7000, though how many are already dead or wounded is another question. If (as is now reported) that pocket is largely surrounded it could be a major defeat for RU. It would seem that UKr don't yet have complete control over the one remaining route, but they can deny it to Russians with arty.
So if RU troops surrender it blows a huge hole in their defensive line in that area
So I think we are guessing.
More relevant perhaps is how many Russian troops are in the Lyman pocket. Estimates seem to range from 5000 to 7000, though how many are already dead or wounded is another question. If (as is now reported) that pocket is largely surrounded it could be a major defeat for RU. It would seem that UKr don't yet have complete control over the one remaining route, but they can deny it to Russians with arty.
So if RU troops surrender it blows a huge hole in their defensive line in that area
Keith
Super Anarchist
yaaaa, no.
It's now easier for the Russian invaders to continue to deny that they are using energy, as a weapon...
Funny how that works.
When do you leave for the front lines with your comrades?
chesirecat
Super Anarchist
Hitler in his bunker comes to mind, but worse as it's unlikely Putin will commit suicide. He won't back down, the Oligarchs can't hold him back, his goons control the streets and FSB has been purged. He's aware of the high dollar and sees just about every Euro country plus the US looking at recession next year. Ones only to look at the headlines around the NS pipelines blown to see his old school KGB playbook in action, perhaps in his eyes, he's winning.
Even if or when Ukraine push RU back to the original frontiers he'll just rebuild the forces within 3 years (UK defence assessment). Interestingly if one looks at the US defense UKR spending, they're putting bucket loads into new rapid response streamlined adaptable procurement systems.
This era is certainly not boring.
Mambo Kings
Super Anarchist
The European benchmark is the Dutch TTF. The US Benchmark is Henry Hub.
Henry Hub is priced in dollars per mmBtu. ETF is priced in euros per megawatt-hour
Converting to the same currency, Henry Hub (US) is around $6 per mmBtu. TTF (Europe) is around $55 per mmBtu.
If you have an LNG carrier, your gas supply is much cheaper then European prices. The bottleneck is the shipping .
Ineos commissioned $2 bn worth of gear to transport shale ethane in 2016 and as large a sum again more recently to ship LNG from Port Arthur. It will take the Germans 5 years to catch up with Ineos.
