I’d say the odds are pretty good Ukraine is only going to be planting dead people this spring.
Ukraine
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idontwan2know
Super Anarchist
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Ukraine certainly....the question is Russia. Do the farmers have money to buy seed, fuel their tractors, etc.
They are going to need dump trucks full of Russian pesos to buy enough of anything to matter. Those who hedged with dollars or euros and didn’t swap out are now screwed. Probably giant factory farms will figure it out, but the average farmer is screwed. Probably another week or so and the country will revolt. People aren’t stupid. Putin not telling them what’s really going on, but virtually every western store closed, visa, Mastercard not working, the entire society suddenly being different and they will revolt. Of course Putin will just kill all the protestors he can, but that will only last a little while.
idontwan2know
Super Anarchist
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Today the Kremlin claimed that Putin specifically ordered that no conscripts be used in Ukraine and that they're launching an investigation to find out who violated orders. Which is similar to OJ promising to find the real killers.
The Russian army can't conduct any serious ground operations without conscripts, they're integral to the force. Much like the US military cannot operate at scale without the reserves/national guard being involved.
The Russian army can't conduct any serious ground operations without conscripts, they're integral to the force. Much like the US military cannot operate at scale without the reserves/national guard being involved.
JALhazmat
Super Anarchist
Kiwing
Super Anarchist
Jedii will be next.The force be with you Ukraine.
Really? You defend your ignorance by telling me to leave if I don't like it.
Yet you celebrate the Ukrainians fighting for what they want.
Fuck I love this place. Hypocrisy at its best.
I still disagree with you. Multiple ownership of nukes stops them being used. Putin can make all the threats he wants, but he knows the outcome of throwing them around.
Europe doesn't want this to become a big event that spreads further across the continent. They will wail about poor Ukraine, but they have no interest in becoming directly involved. There is simply zero upside and lots of downside for them.
So they will sit on the sidelines, supplying what they can without Russia taking it as joining in. Russia will do the same as they don't want it to become a European wide thing.
But walk on eggshells if it makes you feel better. Nothing like a bit of crying yourself to sleep for the self esteem.
Agreed this this is a scary prospect. Wheat supply is truly massive but so is the amount of fertilizer many countries rely on from both U and from R, to grow their own crops.
Back to energy supplies to Europe and especially to E Europe: Heard a persuasive argument on radio today making a case that Putin will not interrupt energy supplies, not so much for financial reasons as much as for how devastating the effect would be when things grind to a sudden and catastrophic halt in some countries, which would greatly up the ante....
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Up to $4.65 per gallon around here, am sure the gas companies are making a killing.
I doubt I have driven 50 miles this year and the Amazon delivery cars are mostly electric but truckers and other general transportation including cargo flights will pass it on down, obviously. Airfares I saw today when musing about Maui are up a lot but not too bad so far.
Makes sense. Europe doesn't want to get fully involved. Putin doesn't want them to get fully involved. Shutting off energy supplies would force the issue. Countries forced to the wall will then get involved for their survival.
I just hope that the West remembers this and gives Russia and Putin a way out at the end of this shit fight. Or things could turn to custard, very quickly.
My guess (hope) is that in the short-term (but probably months and many thousands of casualties too late) a settlement can eventually be reached where 'a border' in Ukraine gets agreed to, one that Putin can claim victory on but one that makes no real difference to the rest of the world. Later, that Putin and his ideas of expansionism get thoroughly ended once and for all.
There is also the longer-term prospect of arms-control agreements in the wake that would greatly reduce weapons-spending and military budgets in general, by everyone. Praying..
The weapons deals would need to be focused on working with China. Not sure how keen they are to do this.
My naive belief is that at the end of the day everyone wants Peace and Prosperity and so progressive agreements will be made along those lines.
The current disastrously bad situation does provide an opportunity for all world leaders and populations to step back and rethink a lot.
Steam Flyer
Sophisticated Yet Humble
Great to see naivety and hope is alive and well.
Unfortunately humans aren't like what you wish for. Which is good and bad. We have succeeded in getting to where we are because of our inner nature. Developed technology that is astounding.
At the same time this same innate human nature has created the events going on in Ukraine. We need to accept the bad with the good and get on with life.
We are obviously from a long and 'wild' evolution of brutal dog-eat-dog, fittest survival background like what we see all around us in the rest of the natural world on earth. But since humans have evolved relatively recently to a point where a level of prosperity for all is achievable, starvation should be solvable, and the last centuries of scientific breakthroughs have been so astounding too? Yes, I actually do think we are on a good path. Human ingenuity is astonishing.
Wars are a failure of leadership, we need more enlightened ones. Medieval approaches should be recognized for what they are.
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Keith
Super Anarchist
Apologies for not thinking the right way. Dissent must not be tolerated. Blinkers at all times.
