Ukraine

[Stingray~]

bold mine

Kyiv Mayor Vitali Klitschko has given a bleak outlook for the Ukrainian capital's 3 million inhabitants, owing to the damages inflicted on the city's energy infrastructure by Russian shelling. "This is the worst winter since World War II," Klitschko told the German newspaper Bild, in comments published on Wednesday. Kyiv and its residents had to be ready for the "worst case scenario" of widespread power cuts at low temperatures, in which case parts of the capital would have to be evacuated, Klitschko warned. "But we don't want it to come to that!" the former professional boxer added. Russia rained down missiles across Ukraine, forcing shutdowns of nuclear power plants and killing civilians as Moscow pursues a campaign to plunge Ukrainian cities into darkness and cold as winter sets in. Overnight missile strikes from Russia that hit a hospital in the Zaporizhzhia region have killed a young child, the regional governor said on Wednesday. 'Pain floods our hearts — an infant who has just come into the world has been killed," the region's military governor, Oleksandr Starukh, wrote on Telegram.

 

[Stingray~]

Former SAC and General Wes Clark's opinion

 

[Frogman56]

As many experts and commentators have noted, once UKR was able to resist the initial RUS assault, Putin's conventional military effort was probably destined to fail, given sufficient NATOish assistance to UKR. Most of the evidence suggests a continuing slow decline of the RUS military capability, viewed from a conventional 'occupational' perspective.

Attacks on civilian infrastructure are obviously easier, but it appears that sanctions, supply issues for RUS and more effective air defence from UKR (75% shoot down rate on incomings?) point to reduced effectiveness for RUS in this element over the winter and onwards.

Over the coming 3 - 6 months, it appears likely that Putin's hold on power will degrade and some unique Russian form of 'new government' could emerge.

Germany has done a good job on its oil, gas and mineral supplies, such that this lever is now substantially ineffective for RUS; there appear not to be any 'strategic minerals' around this conflict.

Russia's western neighbours (Estonia, Finland, Latvia, Lithuania and Poland) take the Russian problem as seriously as one might expect, and their influence on the major NATO powers appears effective.

Nothing RUS is doing right now appears to be sustainable over even the relatively short term - whether considering the material & logistics, the military capability, the global politics or the governance.

Which shoe will drop? When?

And NATO is now wide awake after a long slumber.....

Frog

 

[Stingray~]

^ Good post.

Let’s hope the missiles are not sustainable.. my worry is that it may go on to the point of irreparable devastation.

 

[Kiwing]

Launch sites in Russia must be coming onto the table?
But I guess if they can up the intercept success to 90% or better, and Nato continue to supply intercept weapons of sufficient quality then Ukraine can retain the higher moral ground. It is hard fighting ethically against a criminal, you always require better weapons than him.

 

[Ease the sheet.]

The war has reached a stalemate which could continue for years. Neither side is in a position to actually win.

Missile strikes on Ukraine could continue for years.

Is that the world we want to live in?

 

[Kiwing]

No the UN has to act as a police force and stop this criminal Poo tin.
Get rid of the veto I say and make the UN police force have teeth.

 

[estarzinger]

Former SAC and General Wes Clark's opinion

hmmmm . . . . This is a bit cheeky of him in particular to say . . . . . because General Clark was in command when Nato forces (warplanes) flew 554 sorties over a 24-hour period primarily intended to shut down Yugoslavia's power grid - left millions (U.S. officials at the time estimated the attacks had shut off power to about 80 percent of Serbia.) of people without electricity (and many without water service). It was during the summer so there is that, but the acknowledged intent was to increase civilian hardship seeking to encourage public disaffection with the government of Yugoslav President Slobodan Milosevic.

My personal sense is that Putin may have possibly decided as a fallback plan to try to create conditions that would allow him to replay the Second Chechen War scenario in Ukraine. Russia lost the 1st Chechen war, negotiated a ceasefire and withdrawal (in '96); rebuilt their forces and re-invaded in '99 with an extremely brutal approach and won then. Hopefully, Ukraine and Nato are now wise to this obvious precedent and will not let it happen.

 

[Stingray~]

General Clark was in command when Nato forces (warplanes) flew 554 sorties over a 24-hour period primarily intended to shut down Yugoslavia's power grid - left millions (U.S. officials at the time estimated the attacks had shut off power to about 80 percent of Serbia.) of people without electricity (and many without water service) is a big-time war hawk

Yes I do realize that but with the given orders I suppose he was effective. Clark ran for Prez one year ('08?) and his intelligence surprised me into going to a local Dem whatever-thing at the high school near me. I convinced several people they should vote for Clark instead of Kerry, out of how mission focused he was on subjects much bigger than that war. The guy is genuinely smart.

 

[estarzinger]

The guy is genuinely smart.

Yup, valedictorian of West Point, Rhodes Scholarship, George C. Marshall Award winner from the Command and General Staff College, and so on throughout his career. However, 'smart' is not enough, a necessary but not sufficient condition. He had some problematic ethical instances and was generally not all that well-liked, and seems to rewrite history in his mind so that he was always the hero. In a way, a bit like Petraeus.

 

[Keith]

 

[Rain Man]

....
My personal sense is that Putin may have possibly decided as a fallback plan to try to create conditions that would allow him to replay the Second Chechen War scenario in Ukraine. Russia lost the 1st Chechen war, negotiated a ceasefire and withdrawal (in '96); rebuilt their forces and re-invaded in '99 with an extremely brutal approach and won then. Hopefully, Ukraine and Nato are now wise to this obvious precedent and will not let it happen.

This. Ukraine must end up in NATO now, one way or the other, if it is to survive the the next war which will inevitably occur. Even if Putin is deposed, the qualifications to become his replacement suggest that the next dictator will be worse. The Russian people have been tamed, there won't be another Russian revolution.

 

[phill_nz]

My personal sense is that Putin may have possibly decided as a fallback plan to try to create conditions that would allow him to replay the Second Chechen War scenario in Ukraine. Russia lost the 1st Chechen war, negotiated a ceasefire and withdrawal (in '96); rebuilt their forces and re-invaded in '99 with an extremely brutal approach and won then. Hopefully, Ukraine and Nato are now wise to this obvious precedent and will not let it happen.

almost everyone is
apart from enigspastic and dogtwot
they both play dead, roll over and sit up and beg like professionals
critical thinking on the other hand is a bridge to far

 

[I ride bikes]

This. Ukraine must end up in NATO now, one way or the other, if it is to survive the the next war which will inevitably occur. Even if Putin is deposed, the qualifications to become his replacement suggest that the next dictator will be worse. The Russian people have been tamed, there won't be another Russian revolution.

Who is most likely to replace Putin?

I can't help but think there may be a swan lake event happening in the next 12 months, but unless the oligarchs can organise an olive branch offering sacrificial lamb, he will most likely be displaced by a full noise authoritarian.

What a time to be alive.

 

[enigmatically2]

almost everyone is
apart from enigspastic and dogtwot
they both play dead, roll over and sit up and beg like professionals
critical thinking on the other hand is a bridge to far

Your comment about critical thinking is somewhat ironic, since you plainly aren't reading what we wrote. We both have argued for NATO to support UKr, just in an effective way that doesn't start ww 3.

 

[Kiwing]

Are missile launching sites in Russian fair game?

 

[enigmatically2]

Are missile launching sites in Russian fair game?

Tell me an effective way of destroying them with a realistic transfer of assets and I'll tell you

 

[dogwatch]

Sorry but people keep going on about oligarchs. They are still there, they are rich but they ceased to be a political force a couple of decades ago.

As for Putin's replacement, there is no good reason to believe he'd be an improvement. The cheery thinking that given the chance, Russia wants to be like us has been progressively shown to be a fallacy.

 

[dogwatch]

What a time to be alive.

It's better than the alternative.

 

[Kiwing]

Tell me an effective way of destroying them with a realistic transfer of assets and I'll tell you

an s300 aimed at a missile about to be launched?