Ukraine

Monkey

Monkey

Super Anarchist
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Stingray~ said:
After watching some recent videos from UKR about what life looks like for many millions of people (shock!) now trying to survive without basically anything (no running water, lights, heat, radio, internet, phone, etc, etc, etc) am investing a little more into self-sufficiency. All remaining lights will be LED and a generator, ordered today for starters. Canned food and other items will follow.

The situation over there is hellacious, in graphic detail. Living through a terrible winter stone-age style is a brutal proposition. What kills you first, freezing or starvation?
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Are you worried about being invaded by Canada? The only real threat we face is nukes getting lobbed at us. Your provisions would be adorable. At least you’d go quick. Us folks in flyover country would get to enjoy the Madmax concept.
 
E

enigmatically2

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Obviously not every situation in UKr can be handled so we'll, and many civilians are suffering, but this provides a counterpoint to some of the doom stories and shows how well UKr is adapting to the damage. I have been impress led with how well they have got energy supplies, bridges and railways working again too.

 
P

P Flados

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First off, I think it will be multiple years before this thing is over unless Russia has something of a sudden internal crisis or event that shortens it. I think this is mostly due to the resolve of the Ukrainian population. They really do not seem willing to stop without major gains for recovering territory.

For Ukraine, the other big issue is long term security with respect to a future invasion by Russia.

However, lets just postulate they do a reasonable degree of recovery, but after several years of war are starting to consider something short of a complete victory.

Let just say they first cut the Russian land bridge to Crimea. This leads to recovery of all territory between Melitopol and Kherson. They completely take out the Kerch Bridge and advance into Northern Crimea.

They also recover another 50 km or so along the front line in Northern Luhansk.

Sanctions and isolation for Russia along with the battlefield losses are leading to increased internal strife. Russia sees that they will loose the rest of Crimea. Russia decides to try to give up the rest of Crimea (good will gesture) in exchange for keeping what they have in the Donbass.

The Ukrainian government decides it wants to do the deal, but needs some kind of leverage to convince the population that giving up Donbass territory will not just lead to another future Russian invasion. So Ukraine tells Russia the only way for the deal to work is that Ukraine will join NATO with "no nukes in Ukraine" as the only limitation.
 
BrightAyes

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P Flados said:
First off, I think it will be multiple years before this thing is over unless Russia has something of a sudden internal crisis or event that shortens it. I think this is mostly due to the resolve of the Ukrainian population. They really do not seem willing to stop without major gains for recovering territory.

For Ukraine, the other big issue is long term security with respect to a future invasion by Russia.

However, lets just postulate they do a reasonable degree of recovery, but after several years of war are starting to consider something short of a complete victory.

Let just say they first cut the Russian land bridge to Crimea. This leads to recovery of all territory between Melitopol and Kherson. They completely take out the Kerch Bridge and advance into Northern Crimea.

They also recover another 50 km or so along the front line in Northern Luhansk.

Sanctions and isolation for Russia along with the battlefield losses are leading to increased internal strife. Russia sees that they will loose the rest of Crimea. Russia decides to try to give up the rest of Crimea (good will gesture) in exchange for keeping what they have in the Donbass.

The Ukrainian government decides it wants to do the deal, but needs some kind of leverage to convince the population that giving up Donbass territory will not just lead to another future Russian invasion. So Ukraine tells Russia the only way for the deal to work is that Ukraine will join NATO with "no nukes in Ukraine" as the only limitation.
Click to expand...
Ukraine will need decades-long babysitting militarily. We've managed to provide that to EU for 80 years and S. Korea for 70. Until we can rid the world of Russian dictators on the whole, this region will continue to threaten the Free World.
 
Keith

Keith

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The traditional coastal waters of the Orca,Grey Wh
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Steam Flyer

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BrightAyes said:
P Flados said:
First off... ...

The Ukrainian government decides it wants to do the deal, but needs some kind of leverage to convince the population that giving up Donbass territory will not just lead to another future Russian invasion. So Ukraine tells Russia the only way for the deal to work is that Ukraine will join NATO with "no nukes in Ukraine" as the only limitation.
Click to expand...
Ukraine will need decades-long babysitting militarily. We've managed to provide that to EU for 80 years and S. Korea for 70. Until we can rid the world of Russian dictators on the whole, this region will continue to threaten the Free World.
Click to expand...

I think Ukraine is going to emerge from this war as a richer, stronger nation than Russia. And they will have a fighting force that is recently blooded, ready to train -us- in innovative tactics, and eager to push Russia down further. I don't think they'll need "babysitting" but they will need investment and supportive trade relations.

I hope that Hungary and Belarus see the example of Russia's failing and turn away from the Putin model. Right now it looks like Hungary and Turkey will never let Ukraine into NATO, so some work-around will probably be needed.

I don't see why Russia is still on the UN Security Council. They should be removed.
 
Ishmael

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Steam Flyer said:
I think Ukraine is going to emerge from this war as a richer, stronger nation than Russia. And they will have a fighting force that is recently blooded, ready to train -us- in innovative tactics, and eager to push Russia down further. I don't think they'll need "babysitting" but they will need investment and supportive trade relations.

I hope that Hungary and Belarus see the example of Russia's failing and turn away from the Putin model. Right now it looks like Hungary and Turkey will never let Ukraine into NATO, so some work-around will probably be needed.

I don't see why Russia is still on the UN Security Council. They should be removed.
Click to expand...

Having a terrorist state on the Council does seem a little inelegant.
 
Rain Man

Rain Man

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Ukraine is somewhat more likely now to be able to get control of Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts than they were before the invasion. Ukraine did not have HIMARS and did not have Western intelligence backing them up - and the dispute simmered from 2014 to the invasion.

Putin has unwittingly created the conditions he wanted the SMO to prevent.

If Ukraine doesn't end up in NATO, how will Ukraine acquire the security guarantees they need to end the war from their perspective? Treaties with Russia don't work unless backed up by Western security guarantees, the best of which is NATO membership.
 
slug zitski

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enigmatically2 said:
I have criticised some of the other suggestions on here for targeting russian air bases and missile launching points because they are impracticable, no-one has yet asked me for an alternative, but its only fair to offer one.

1) NATO to provide more AAW systems to defend cities. These will never be 100% effective and it may be that they have already saturation point (after which adding more makes no improvement or even worsens the defence). None of us have the information to make that assessment, but my gut feel is that we haven't and more could be done

2) Provide support in hitting the Kerch bridge to put it completely and permanently out of action. The JASSM missiles I mentioned would be ideal. UKR doesn't have any aircraft cleared to use them so that may be an issue. But I suspect something could be done with them, or something else

3) More anti-ship missiles and/or torpedos to hit landing ships that are being used to transport material (and would be even more essential if the bridge was knocked out). Even lightweight torpedos (such as the types dropped from aircraft for anti-submarine work) could probably be adopted to be launched from autonomous vehicles and hit landing ships. But there are existying unmanned vehicles with a torpedo launch capability

This follows the already successful theme of targeting logistics. If we can cut-off Crimea combined with a strike south to cut-off the rest of Kherson Oblast then the army there will collapse, and Ukr can concentrate its forces in the east and win there also
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Won’t help

US , nato ground to air equipment is low quality

imetatronink.substack.com

No-Fly Zone

I’ve become increasingly intrigued by the fact that western military analysts – even among those not burdened with the epidemic strain of virulent antipathy towards Russia – have not spoken much (if at all) about what I consider to be quite arguably the most impressive revelation of the war in...
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Steam Flyer

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slug zitski said:
Won’t help

US , nato ground to air equipment is low quality

[bullshit link snipped]
Click to expand...

OK, so let's take a look at the yay-Putin propaganda:

In addition to imposing a virtual “you fly, you die” rule against the Ukrainian Air Force and the various drones they employ, the Russians are, with a formidable array of air defense systems of varying capacities, routinely shooting down: ballistic missiles, MLRS rockets, HARMS anti-radiation missiles, and even artillery shells.

Now, this was published back in August, when the Russian had failed miserably at all their goals but at least were holding some UKR territory by strength of overwhelming numbers of grunts on the ground.

"Routinely shooting down even artillery shells" is just a bit too much, when even in August the UKR artillery was out-dueling the Russians by about 10:1 and was on the cusp of seeing it's US-supplied M177 howitzers pretty much sweep RUS artillery off the field... with numbers of 142 (this is how many the US gave them) to about 5,000.

So this is an obvious fail.
Really really obvious, really really FAIL
 
phill_nz

phill_nz

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you have to give him points for the level of trying

thats some severe dedicated application right there
i doubt many here could even come close to his degree of belief
i mean you have to be so into being brainwashed to get that far
 
Ishmael

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phill_nz said:
you have to give him points for the level of trying

thats some severe dedicated application right there
i doubt many here could even come close to his degree of belief
i mean you have to be so into being brainwashed to get that far
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Slutski has a very small brain, so it doesn't take that long.
 
Steam Flyer

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Best comeback after posting a bunch of yay-putin brainwash drippings, and being proven wrong and made to look like a fool... post more even dumber yay-putin bullshit.
 
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