Ukraine

[Stingray~]

Watching the WC now, half time between USA and IRAN. USA is up 1-0 and have been putting on some great pressure so far. Fingers crossed.

If USA does manage to win then they will likely have to play NED in the knockouts - yikes!

 

[EYESAILOR]

Russian TV displaying a staggering lack of self-awareness

I think they are spot on.

"We are at risk of losing the Crimea......we are doing the only thing we can do...we are bombing!

Its the air war stupid.

They are right in that the Hague is irrelevant. The super powers dont send their leaders for trial to the Hague.

 

[EYESAILOR]

Watching the WC now, half time between USA and IRAN. USA is up 1-0 and have been putting on some great pressure so far. Fingers crossed.

If USA does manage to win then they will likely have to play NED in the knockouts - yikes!

Its looking perfect for England.

USA up 1:0 vs Iran
England up 1:0 vs Wales.
If any one of those scores holds up, then England are thru to sweet sixteen.

 

[Mark_K]

My first time listening to Steinmeier, he seems intelligent.

Unfortunately the Ammonpor interview with Charles Pickering from Nov 24 requires a donation to PBS to see, but that guy has perhaps the best record of accurate predictions in affairs of state. Naturally, he doesn't say much publicly but when he does pay attention.

In this one he says what we should be doing is positioning ourselves for the moment when a peace can be negotiated, and that moment that will come but isn't here yet.

 

[Stingray~]

Unfortunately the Ammonpor interview with Charles Pickering from Nov 24 requires a donation to PBS to see, but that guy has perhaps the best record of accurate predictions in affairs of state. Naturally, he doesn't say much publicly but when he does pay attention.

I don't care much for Ammonpor because she is so opinionated and tries to make the interviews about herself, but that one could be good. Got a link?

 

[enigmatically2]

Its the air war!
In the next chapter, this is all that matters.

The Black Sea fleet will not determine the outcome of the war in Ukraine.
Ukraine will not control the Russian Black sea fleet even if they have some success in Crimea. Ukraine has no way of denying access to and from Novorossiysk. Ukraine cannot attack that deeply into Russian territory without alienating their allies.

Its the air war now. If Ukraine can win the air war, then the dominoes will start falling.

UKr did send unmanned vehicles into Nivorossiysk. Didn't accomplish too much but put the wind up black see fleet.

Personally I think the air war will continue to be largely a no-score draw. Both sides have sufficient air defence to deny control of the air. Would need a lot more committment from NATO to change that.

But I think Ukr will win the war of attrition in the ground. They have more committment from population, NATO production and better morale

 

[Mark_K]

I don't care much for Ammonpor because she is so opinionated and tries to make the interviews about herself, but that one could be good. Got a link?

No I don't because everything I found was paywalled. Simply happened to catch the Nov 24 interview when I was channel surfing that night.

Google Amanpour Pickering and you will find lots of links, but everything I found was hard paywalled. Have to donate to PBS to see it.

A modern trend in media: The BS is free and the good stuff is paywalled.
So it goes...

 

[Stingray~]

No I don't because everything I found was paywalled. Simply happened to catch the Nov 24 interview when I was channel surfing that night.

Google Amanpour Pickering and you will find lots of links, but everything I found was hard paywalled. Have to donate to PBS to see it.

A modern trend in media: The BS is free and the good stuff is paywalled.
So it goes...

Will do, thanks. Good chance I am subscribed.

 

[Stingray~]

USA wins!!! Yay, that was really fun

 

[Steam Flyer]

USA wins!!! Yay, that was really fun

Does that mean we can say EYE-rannn instead of Eee-rahn?

 

[Monkey]

Does that mean we can say EYE-rannn instead of Eee-rahn?

Hell, I’m still trying to stop pronouncing Kiev wrong. Getting Iran right is a low priority.

 

[Stingray~]

Hell, I’m still trying to stop pronouncing Kiev wrong. Getting Iran right is a low priority.

Hamsterdarem is going to be our next challenge..

Am not crazy about that airport but booked a flight yesterday through there because the turnaround to Rome is only 90 minutes. Will maybe wear a USA 'Soccer' hat or something

 

[Stingray~]

Does that mean we can say EYE-rannn instead of Eee-rahn?

I rarely watch that game even despite how Seattle has a decent team that sells out all their games and bars get jammed for them. But I did also watch the game USA played against ENG when USA held them scoreless, plus they had many-many shots at scoring, so I was surprised they at least had a chance. In this game too they had what looked to me like several opportunities to score and kept blowing it but then the one they did score in the 38th minute was awesome, brutal as it was. Thoroughly enjoyed the game.

I don't watch much if any TV but found it great that the games (at least here?) were commercial-free except during halftime. I don't mind the Coca Cola ads superimposed during the live action along the sidelines. That beats the heck out of the NFL which is basically geared to commercial breaks. Let's hope the AC races in Europe, even despite how short they are, will also be shown uninterrupted.

 

[Monkey]

Slug is amazingly partially correct. We are running out of some types of missile that we have been sending to Ukraine. That is because a lot of the types we have been sending are obsolete. Still better than the best Ru kit, but last generation obsolete kit. Since we stopped manufacturing them a while ago, we will run out (the alternative would have been to destroy them when they hit their Lifex.
The bad news for Slug is that when they do run out, we might have to send new kit, which is of course even better. And then NATO can out produce Russia by a factor of many tens. Especially given that sanctions are now starting to hit Russian industry quite hard. Planes crashing through lack of maintenance, trucks stopping, factories failing.

Which at some point will be key in the Donbass. In a battle of attrition, Russia will eventually lose.

You’ve hit the nail on the head. Slug is excited that we’re running out of antiques. He’s too damn stupid to understand we don’t keep making them because we have much better options. He’s so damned stupid that he doesn’t even realize that it’s been publicly reported that NATO has been training Ukrainians this whole time. There’s a reason for that. UKraine has been kicking ass with old Soviet gear and NATO hand me downs. By now, there should be plenty of Ukrainians trained up on some modern NATO gear just waiting to cut loose.

 

[Rain Man]

You’ve hit the nail on the head. Slug is excited that we’re running out of antiques. He’s too damn stupid to understand we don’t keep making them because we have much better options. He’s so damned stupid that he doesn’t even realize that it’s been publicly reported that NATO has been training Ukrainians this whole time. There’s a reason for that. UKraine has been kicking ass with old Soviet gear and NATO hand me downs. By now, there should be plenty of Ukrainians trained up on some modern NATO gear just waiting to cut loose.

Exactly. By starting the war, Putin accelerated Ukraine's induction into NATO significantly. By the time this is over, Ukrainian troops will be fully trained on NATO gear. Adding Ukraine to NATO will just be a formality.

As they say, Putin is a master strategist.

 

[barfy]

Exactly. By starting the war, Putin accelerated Ukraine's induction into NATO significantly. By the time this is over, Ukrainian troops will be fully trained on NATO gear. Adding Ukraine to NATO will just be a formality.

As they say, Putin is a master strategist.

Adding Ukraine to NATO will be an incredible asset.

 

[Ex Machina]

Adding Ukraine to NATO will be an incredible asset.

Yeah THEY can train nato troops in modern warfare strategy when the dust settles

 

[motorbike]

my 2 cents

Ukraine as it was pre war is done, stick a fork into it. Nato is toothless and neither the US nor the Europeans have the ongoing resolve, manpower or firepower to wage a land war with Russia despite the propaganda. Particularly for the US which is used to have a pretty good military, now its top heavy with generals who only know how to go on lopsided adventures. Think about it, when was the last real war the US fought against an organised well equipped army? After Korea its been expeditionary, as for the Europeans, they dismantled their big standing armies and played the US for their resources. Thats all in the weeds now, Prez Trump pointed it out if you recall. Nato was formed for exactly this kind of aggression/situation and if it was going to do much more than posture and flap its gums it would have done it.

 

[Rain Man]

my 2 cents

Ukraine as it was pre war is done, stick a fork into it. Nato is toothless and neither the US nor the Europeans have the ongoing resolve, manpower or firepower to wage a land war with Russia despite the propaganda. Particularly for the US which is used to have a pretty good military, now its top heavy with generals who only know how to go on lopsided adventures. Think about it, when was the last real war the US fought against an organised well equipped army? After Korea its been expeditionary, as for the Europeans, they dismantled their big standing armies and played the US for their resources. Thats all in the weeds now, Prez Trump pointed it out if you recall. Nato was formed for exactly this kind of aggression/situation and if it was going to do much more that posture and flap its gums it would have done it.

Surely you are not referring to Russia here...

As for your overall theme, why do you think Russia threatens to use nukes if NATO steps in? Russia knows that they are finished in Ukraine if NATO gets involved. Keep in mind that, HIMARS and M777's aside, Ukraine has been mostly fighting with Russian kit.

 

[enigmatically2]

Surely you are not referring to Russia here...

As for your overall theme, why do you think Russia threatens to use nukes if NATO steps in? Russia knows that they are finished in Ukraine if NATO gets involved. Keep in mind that, HIMARS and M777's aside, Ukraine has been mostly fighting with Russian kit.

Not true. They have had shit loads of old NATO MANPADs and anti-tank missiles. The latter stopped the Kyiv advance. Also lots of APCs and other vehicles.
But as I said most of this stuff has been last-gen NATO kit

Also a lot of non-weapon equipment like clothing which is just as important.