Ukraine

[Rain Man]

Set the stage, but it's more that a bit of a stretch to say it "caused" it.

https://www.euronews.com/2022/11/29...ne-of-one-of-its-most-controversial-decisions

Have to bear in mind that NATO was created and structured to fight defend against one and only one threat, the USSR.

FIFY

 

[Ex Machina]

NATO isnt interested in a fight because its not prepared for one, as I previously said if there was anytime since 1945 that justified NATO's military intervention in Europe, this is it and they are doing nothing.


Rank stupidity is saying NATO is standing by while UKR burns because it doesnt want to use weapons designed to prevent said burning...and they also dont want to use those same weapons because Russia might find out they have weapons.

A good discussion to have is why is it standing by, why doesnt it get involved. Ive given my opinion which may well be proven wrong but the point I am making is the main players have interests that are mostly obscured by the narrative. No one is seriously interested in declaring a full on war with Russia because thats putting out fire with gasoline.

Don't forget China . If Nato goes balls to the wall that leaves an opening for China to mess with Taiwan , or the South China Sea or some of the pacific nations or all the above .

 

[Rain Man]

Don't forget China . If Nato goes balls to the wall that leaves an opening for China to mess with Taiwan , or the South China Sea or some of the pacific nations or all the above .

Taiwan is not part of NATO. The US has agreed to guarantee the independence of Taiwan. If China attacks Taiwan, unlike Russia in Ukraine, they will be directly engaging the US.

Biden says U.S. forces would defend Taiwan in the event of a Chinese invasion

The statement is U.S. President Biden's most explicit on the issue, drawing an angry response from China.

www.reuters.com

Whether or not NATO steps in in Ukraine really has no impact on the defense of Taiwan against Chinese aggression, which will be done by the Taiwanese and US militaries. Unlike Ukraine, where more advanced weapons can't be used by the Ukrainians for training reasons, both Taiwan and the US are fully trained on their most advanced weapon systems. So are the Chinese, of course, and the military build-up in China has been on-going for some time, but most analysts seem to agree that China is not ready to attack Taiwan and be guaranteed success.

 

[motorbike]

This is real simple. NATO is a defensive alliance for members. Ukraine is not a member.

Now if you question is why are the individual Western Nations (that are mostly members of NATO) standing by, that is mostly a similar situation. No nation is obligated to send in troops or aircraft. With no obligation, any nation that does declares it intends to send in troops or aircraft is in effect voluntarily declaring war on Russia. Such an action would risk retaliatory action by Russia. Use of Russian naval assets (with cruise missiles) would be "on the table" more than likely. And the big worry would be that Putin may come up with some way to justify to himself that there is an acceptable benefit vs risk for a limited nuclear response toward this third party nation.

Now you may really be asking why an "alliance of nations" made up of NATO members is "just standing by". If the process was even started for forming such an alliance, the probability for Putin to completely loose it and feel justified in "going nuke" is drastically increased.

From a self serving and self protecting aspect, the smart (but ugly and I would say immoral) approach for the West is to just slowly ramp up material support for Ukraine as needed to push Russia back to a point where Ukraine can eventually decide it is ok to stop. The slow ramp up of weapons quantity and capability minimizes a sudden gross escalation (nukes or similar) by Russia.

The West is not going to let Ukraine fall apart due to cruise missile and drone attacks on civilian targets. Similar to military support, the West will do "just enough".

As far as the air war, the real aspect that matters is at the front lines and the support network for the front lines. Ukraine with help from the West is pushing to achieve adequate "air power" (mostly drone surveillance & weaponized drones) along with AD (EW, etc. to limit effective Russian use of drones) to support ground advances. This is very much a "work in progress" but the Western "military industrial complex" sees huge potential for profit. The longer this thing goes on, the more Western money will get dumped into this technology. With the obvious profit opportunity, I see the "state of the art" advancing rapidly. I seriously doubt that Russia will be able to prevent the West from winning the "drone war" piece of the puzzle.

Good post, not sure that the collective west really does have the manufacturing capacity to build enough weapons at present, it appears they are running out given the dwindling reported volumes being delivered. I understand that NATO claims to be a defensive alliance except for Serbia, Libya etc... i.e realpolitik trumps agreements and treaties. The west doesnt care about UKR one bit, except when its expedient to do so or aligns with its interests. Certainly the average Joe doesn't really care that much; 99% of US citizens didnt even know UKR existed until Hunter Biden got a new laptop.

Coming back to the arm manufacturing, if you were an industrialist would you invest enormous amounts of money to do very limited high volume production runs when you know that demand would drop off to practically zero at anytime? They need large standing armies to absorb production. Since the west has focused on high tech platforms, small volunteer armies etc the accompanying armaments manu's have significantly diminished. Rebuilding takes time.

 

[motorbike]

Taiwan is not part of NATO. The US has agreed to guarantee the independence of Taiwan. If China attacks Taiwan, unlike Russia in Ukraine, they will be directly engaging the US.

Biden says U.S. forces would defend Taiwan in the event of a Chinese invasion

The statement is U.S. President Biden's most explicit on the issue, drawing an angry response from China.

www.reuters.com

Whether or not NATO steps in in Ukraine really has no impact on the defense of Taiwan against Chinese aggression, which will be done by the Taiwanese and US militaries. Unlike Ukraine, where more advanced weapons can't be used by the Ukrainians for training reasons, both Taiwan and the US are fully trained on their most advanced weapon systems. So are the Chinese, of course, and the military build-up in China has been on-going for some time, but most analysts seem to agree that China is not ready to attack Taiwan and be guaranteed success.

I'm pretty sure that China and Taiwan are ok with the status quo, grandstanding US politicians on the campaign trail are to be ignored!

 

[dogwatch]

Only except has Sweden done any serious fighting since 1809? They produce excellent sailors but you dont read many articles about Swedish mercenaries. I dont think Sweden is seen as quite the same level of threat as Ukraine .

On the other hand Finland and the USSR waged the Winter War, concurrently with but (arguably) not part of WWII. Finland inflicted heavy losses on the USSR but ultimately lost significant territory. Finland continues to take its defence seriously, with universal male military or other service. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Winter_War

Despite its (up to now) neutrality, Sweden is a significant arms manufacturer/exporter.

 

[enigmatically2]

Good post, not sure that the collective west really does have the manufacturing capacity to build enough weapons at present, it appears they are running out given the dwindling reported volumes being delivered. I understand that NATO claims to be a defensive alliance except for Serbia, Libya etc... i.e realpolitik trumps agreements and treaties. The west doesnt care about UKR one bit, except when its expedient to do so or aligns with its interests. Certainly the average Joe doesn't really care that much; 99% of US citizens didnt even know UKR existed until Hunter Biden got a new laptop.

Coming back to the arm manufacturing, if you were an industrialist would you invest enormous amounts of money to do very limited high volume production runs when you know that demand would drop off to practically zero at anytime? They need large standing armies to absorb production. Since the west has focused on high tech platforms, small volunteer armies etc the accompanying armaments manu's have significantly diminished. Rebuilding takes time.

Tell your Russian masters you need more training.

You clearly haven't noted the huge support in US and pretty much every European country for helping Ukraine

And if you don't think NATO production capabilities are not large, with the potential to ramp up far more then you are in for a shock. Yes it is true that some stocks (especially of older weapons) have been drawn down. That is inevitable. But there are still a lot left and production has been stepping up a lot to back-fill - with newer weapons. Including some that didn't even exist on Feb 24

 

[LeoV]

There is a reason Russia uses stuff from North Korea and Iran, both sides are burning through a lot. And Russia is just a small economy. With supply problems. Except for arty shells, so far. But the barrels...
As long as China keeps on the sideline, that is. One reason Ukraine friends does not go in all out is China. It is wider then NATO.

 

[AnIdiot]

.... The west doesnt care about UKR one bit, ... 99% of US citizens didnt even know UKR existed until Hunter Biden got a new laptop....

"the west" =/= USA.

Europe has been struggling with overcapacity in the defence industry; national champions being propped up to preserve capabilities, jobs, foreign sales etc. They can't ramp up overnight but that doesn't mean they can't ramp up... and time is on their side at the moment: It appears that Russia is depleting inventory of current systems and falling back on older, less capable equipment whereas Ukraine is replacing their obsolete gear with better NATO-standard stuff and acquiring more modern systems.
This has been happening since before Feb '21: note, for example, that the Ukrainians already had western anti-tank gear when the Russians started rolling.

 

[EYESAILOR]

I'm pretty sure that China and Taiwan are ok with the status quo, grandstanding US politicians on the campaign trail are to be ignored!

Good Grief!

You really have absolutely zero knowledge of geopolitics. I assume you know that the capital of the United States is Washington DC (no not Seattle!) but once you venture to talk about stuff outside of the USA you are sawdust under a hosepipe.

This statement issued 4 months ago by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the People's Republic of China might help you.


"There is but one China in the world, Taiwan is an inalienable part of China's territory, and the Government of the People's Republic of China is the sole legal government representing the whole of China. This has been clearly recognized by United Nations General Assembly Resolution 2758 of 1971 ...
The United States, for its part, has been attempting to use Taiwan to contain China. It constantly distorts, obscures and hollows out the one-China principle, steps up its official exchanges with Taiwan, and emboldens “Taiwan independence” separatist activities. These moves, like playing with fire, are extremely dangerous. Those who play with fire will perish by fire.
The position of the Chinese Government and people on the Taiwan question has been consistent. It is the firm commitment of the more than 1.4 billion Chinese people to resolutely safeguard state sovereignty and territorial integrity. It is the common aspiration and sacred responsibility of all Chinese sons and daughters to realize the complete reunification of the motherland. The will of the people is not to be defied, and the trend of the times cannot be reversed. No country, no forces and no individual should ever misestimate the firm resolve, strong will and great capability of the Chinese Government and people to defend state sovereignty and territorial integrity and to achieve national reunification and rejuvenation. China will definitely take all necessary measures to resolutely safeguard its sovereignty and territorial integrity"

 

[slug zitski]

Good post, not sure that the collective west really does have the manufacturing capacity to build enough weapons at present, it appears they are running out given the dwindling reported volumes being delivered. I understand that NATO claims to be a defensive alliance except for Serbia, Libya etc... i.e realpolitik trumps agreements and treaties. The west doesnt care about UKR one bit, except when its expedient to do so or aligns with its interests. Certainly the average Joe doesn't really care that much; 99% of US citizens didnt even know UKR existed until Hunter Biden got a new laptop.

Coming back to the arm manufacturing, if you were an industrialist would you invest enormous amounts of money to do very limited high volume production runs when you know that demand would drop off to practically zero at anytime? They need large standing armies to absorb production. Since the west has focused on high tech platforms, small volunteer armies etc the accompanying armaments manu's have significantly diminished. Rebuilding takes time.

If they ramp up production today it will take 3 years until you have product

Russia has armament factories that turn out 20 million artillery rounds per year

The US can only produce 15 thousand artillery rounds per month

All of the modern nato high tech equipment has a high maintenance schedule that require parts and technicians

The US made a mistake when they declared war on a country that can defend itself

 

[EYESAILOR]

The Chinese position on Taiwan is not ambiguous . Their language is not hedged or inscrutable. They are crystal clear. China has stated that they intend to reunite Taiwan with China.

The official US response on the other hand is open to all sorts of interpretation:
"We do not seek to transform China's political system. Our task is to prove once again that democracy can meet urgent challenges, create opportunity, advance human dignity; that the future belongs to those who believe in freedom and that all countries will be free to chart their own paths without coercion."

The South China Sea is a powder keg. Taiwan could safely ignore China's demands for reunification for decades after WW 2 while China remained a developing country and Taiwan was protected by the USA, a military super power. China is now a military super power...........and geography in the South China Sea does not favor the USA.

 

[enigmatically2]

This has been happening since before Feb '21: note, for example, that the Ukrainians already had western anti-tank gear when the Russians started rolling.

Largely because British intelligence realised what was happening and UK gave shit loads in the 2 months prior, even as French and Germany were denying anything would happen.

Up to start of Feb the yanks had sold Ukraine 360 anti-tank missiles, whereas UK gave 2000*

That is what stopped the advance on Kyiv

Completely agree with the rest of what you said though

* source https://www.forumarmstrade.org/ukrainearms.html

 

[EYESAILOR]

The US made a mistake when they declared war on a country that can defend itself

Article 1 of our constitution allows that Congress shall authorize the declaration of war.

The United States of America has declared war five times in our history. Each time, it was against a country or group of countries capable of defending themselves. Each and every time, we won.

Please provide an example of a "mistake".

 

[AnIdiot]

Largely because British intelligence realised what was happening and UK gave shit loads in the 2 months prior, even as French and Germany were denying anything would happen.

Up to start of Feb the yanks had sold Ukraine 360 anti-tank missiles, whereas UK gave 2000*

That is what stopped the advance on Kyiv

Completely agree with the rest of what you said though

* source https://www.forumarmstrade.org/ukrainearms.html

We're not disagreeing at all- I was not intending to suggest that the USA had been the driver here, rather that European NATO countries (specifically the UK, though I didn't say so) had already started transferring western gear to Ukraine before the Russians actually attacked.

 

[enigmatically2]

If they ramp up production today it will take 3 years until you have product

Russia has armament factories that turn out 20 million artillery rounds per year

The US can only produce 15 thousand artillery rounds per month

All of the modern nato high tech equipment has a high maintenance schedule that require parts and technicians

The US made a mistake when they declared war on a country that can defend itself

Answering your own sock or is he in a different part of Ru propaganda?

You are comparing normal US rates with what Ru can produce at full tilt (assuming a fully functioning industry which it no longer has). Add in all of NATO and ramp up to war rates and NATO can produce a lot more. And Rus uses more than NATO because yours are so innaccurate. One NATO Excalibur shell is worth 100 Ru shells in its impact.

And if Ru can produce so many so easily, why is it buying stuff from NK and Iran?

And as for NATO high tech equipment needing parts and technicians, that is true, and we are providing parts and training. But do you remember all those RU vehicles back in Feb with blown tyres because no-one had maintained the tyre pressure system?
Or if your memory fails you on that then how about the 3m uniforms, boots, armour, small arms, parts etc that have gone missing. EVen Russian State TV is talking about it. And showing pictures of Ru soldiers using cut up plastic bottles as kneeguards; wooden pallettes and anti-missile protection etc

And US never declared war because neither it nor NATO is at war. Ru can't even beat little Ukraine.

On the subject of your memory, you never condemned Wagner PMC for murdering that Russian soldier after you accused Ukr of killing him but Wagner admitted it was them

 

[EYESAILOR]

Article 1 of our constitution allows that Congress shall authorize the declaration of war.

The United States of America has declared war five times in our history. Each time, it was against a country or group of countries capable of defending themselves. Each and every time, we won.

Please provide an example of a "mistake".

On the other hand we have supplied support to allies in their conflicts. Sometimes successfully like Croatia and Kuwait. Sometimes less successfully. Ukraine seems to be successful so far.
If Russia thinks that Ukraine's advance does not qualify as success, then I hope we continue to be as resolutely unsuccessful all the way to the Russian border. I hope our "mistakes" continue to pile up until the last ill fed and ill equipped Russian conscript is driven out of Ukraine's independent sovereign nation.

 

[enigmatically2]

by the way @slug zitski - your comrades are worrying about Hague tribunals when they lose. Perhaps you should too?

 

[slug zitski]

Answering your own sock or is he in a different part of Ru propaganda?

You are comparing normal US rates with what Ru can produce at full tilt (assuming a fully functioning industry which it no longer has). Add in all of NATO and ramp up to war rates and NATO can produce a lot more. And Rus uses more than NATO because yours are so innaccurate. One NATO Excalibur shell is worth 100 Ru shells in its impact.

And if Ru can produce so many so easily, why is it buying stuff from NK and Iran?

And as for NATO high tech equipment needing parts and technicians, that is true, and we are providing parts and training. But do you remember all those RU vehicles back in Feb with blown tyres because no-one had maintained the tyre pressure system?
Or if your memory fails you on that then how about the 3m uniforms, boots, armour, small arms, parts etc that have gone missing. EVen Russian State TV is talking about it. And showing pictures of Ru soldiers using cut up plastic bottles as kneeguards; wooden pallettes and anti-missile protection etc

And US never declared war because neither it nor NATO is at war. Ru can't even beat little Ukraine.

On the subject of your memory, you never condemned Wagner PMC for murdering that Russian soldier after you accused Ukr of killing him but Wagner admitted it was them

Even if you can produce the Russians will destroy your supply lines immediately

Your troops will run out of food, supplies ammo in days …and be annihilated

 

[Peter Andersen]

On the other hand we have supplied support to allies in their conflicts. Sometimes successfully like Croatia and Kuwait. Sometimes less successfully. Ukraine seems to be successful so far.
If Russia thinks that Ukraine's advance does not qualify as success, then I hope we continue to be as resolutely unsuccessful all the way to the Russian border. I hope our "mistakes" continue to pile up until the last ill fed and ill equipped Russian conscript is driven out of Ukraine's independent sovereign nation.

There was no declarartion of war in Viet Nam where 67,000 US Troops died and I think can be called a loser.