Ukraine

Mark_K

Super Anarchist
The first part is about how Russia tends to view such situations. It's that they think they are under attack.

https://www.c-span.org/video/?522555-1/ukraine-russia-us

This is not easy for most westerners to grasp but it's nonetheless a fact. In the days of the USSR we inadvertently came close to global destruction because of this. See "Able Archer 83". We really had no idea how fearful the Russians were. It's a nation that has seen a lot of invasions.
 

motorbike

Member
103
8
The Chinese position on Taiwan is not ambiguous . Their language is not hedged or inscrutable. They are crystal clear. China has stated that they intend to reunite Taiwan with China.

The official US response on the other hand is open to all sorts of interpretation:
"We do not seek to transform China's political system. Our task is to prove once again that democracy can meet urgent challenges, create opportunity, advance human dignity; that the future belongs to those who believe in freedom and that all countries will be free to chart their own paths without coercion."

The South China Sea is a powder keg. Taiwan could safely ignore China's demands for reunification for decades after WW 2 while China remained a developing country and Taiwan was protected by the USA, a military super power. China is now a military super power...........and geography in the South China Sea does not favor the USA.
The Chinese rhetoric vs action are two very different things and putting simplistic ideology aside who has the greater strategic interest in the South China Sea and Taiwan- the US or China and who has the greatest strategic interest in Cuba and the Gulf of Mexico?

Does the US have a sovereign right to the islands of Hawaii, I don't care but the point is the in the world of international relations might is right

BTW most people in Taiwan support the status quo and I am pretty sure that they dont really want their village destroyed to save it in the name of democracy, which in this context is a broad catch all term that is used as a smokescreen to hide the unpleasantness of realpolitik between nations.
 

motorbike

Member
103
8
Talking heads say all sorts of things and some of them might even be true, between your vid and this one whats true? IDK!

 

Kiwing

Super Anarchist
3,520
591
Bay of Islands
I guess the truth lies somewhere in the middle?
In two weeks time we will see. If Ukraine has moved 20-50 kms forward then the above will be thought of as scare mongering and if not then we will all listen again to the above and hear opinions on here of plus and minuses.
 

Stingray~

Super Anarchist
12,256
3,341
PNW
Talking heads say all sorts of things and some of them might even be true, between your vid and this one whats true? IDK!


The guy says at the very start that the only danger to US stockpiles is 'if we do something stupid' like for example suddenly start a new war in the Middle East.
 

motorbike

Member
103
8
I guess the truth lies somewhere in the middle?
In two weeks time we will see. If Ukraine has moved 20-50 kms forward then the above will be thought of as scare mongering and if not then we will all listen again to the above and hear opinions on here of plus and minuses.
Yes, we will, we can do nothing more at present than observe and try and make sense of it. In support of my earlier assertion about the unpreparedness of the EU and the US to engage with Russia in a land war (apart from the lack of any real reason to do so) here is an interesting read from a UK security site:

"The rate of ammunition and equipment consumption in Ukraine can only be sustained by a large-scale industrial base.

This reality should be a concrete warning to Western countries, who have scaled down military industrial capacity and sacrificed scale and effectiveness for efficiency. This strategy relies on flawed assumptions about the future of war, and has been influenced by both the bureaucratic culture in Western governments and the legacy of low-intensity conflicts. Currently, the West may not have the industrial capacity to fight a large-scale war. If the US government is planning to once again become the arsenal of democracy, then the existing capabilities of the US military-industrial base and the core assumptions that have driven its development need to be re-examined."

 

Ease the sheet.

ignoring stupid people is easy
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The US supplied all the major allies with equipment during WW2.

To think they cannot do it again is just silly.

Unless Russia starts sinking ships in the Nth Atlantic or shooting down c17's traveling between the US and Europe, the supply lines are secure.

Slug, you're an idiot.
 

motorbike

Member
103
8
Of course the US can do it again but its going to take time to build the factories and train workers.
At some point the ships and planes supplying weapons to UKR will be seen as fair game, not yet but if there is a counter offensive into Russia then all bets are off.
 
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Steam Flyer

Sophisticated Yet Humble
45,361
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Eastern NC
Of course the US can do it again but its going to take time to build the factories and train workers.
At some point the ships and planes supplying weapons to UKR will be seen as fair game, not yet but if there is a counter offensive into Russia then all bets are off.

Why?
You think it's OK for Russia to invade Ukraine, but Ukrainian incursion would mean "all bets are off?" What do you think of the drone attack on the Novarossiya naval base? Blowing up the Kerch bridge?

Who exactly do you think you scare with this bullshit?
 

motorbike

Member
103
8
Why?
You think it's OK for Russia to invade Ukraine, but Ukrainian incursion would mean "all bets are off?" What do you think of the drone attack on the Novarossiya naval base? Blowing up the Kerch bridge?

Who exactly do you think you scare with this bullshit?
Has groupthink got in that far? Nobody is scared by an internet discussion but its you who are saying that its OK to invade Ukraine, I didnt, it just happened and I am an observer. My comment was that if western backed forces invade Russia, they have made it very clear that they will resort to all means at their disposal to defend their country and that would include I suppose shooting down US planes and sinking US ships.

At present its a proxy war which is just another name for war where the various interests get to fight each other without too much damage to their respective homeland.

In the context of the stated aims of the SMO, the attacks on the Kerch bridge and the sabotage of Nordstream are very dangerous escalations. There is some evidence that these were coordinated with the UK and US intelligence services and the response by Russia has been the gloves coming off.

I come at this from a different viewpoint, I dont see this invasion as a moral failing on the part of Putin or some conspiracy theory about US involvement. Russia was threatened and they attacked, this is what states do and either UKR or Russia is going to win.
 

Ease the sheet.

ignoring stupid people is easy
20,349
2,342
Has groupthink got in that far? Nobody is scared by an internet discussion but its you who are saying that its OK to invade Ukraine, I didnt, it just happened and I am an observer. My comment was that if western backed forces invade Russia, they have made it very clear that they will resort to all means at their disposal to defend their country and that would include I suppose shooting down US planes and sinking US ships.

At present its a proxy war which is just another name for war where the various interests get to fight each other without too much damage to their respective homeland.

In the context of the stated aims of the SMO, the attacks on the Kerch bridge and the sabotage of Nordstream are very dangerous escalations. There is some evidence that these were coordinated with the UK and US intelligence services and the response by Russia has been the gloves coming off.

I come at this from a different viewpoint, I dont see this invasion as a moral failing on the part of Putin or some conspiracy theory about US involvement. Russia was threatened and they attacked, this is what states do and either UKR or Russia is going to win.
So Russia considered all those troops and their machinery exercising on Russian and Belorussian territory threatening?

Luckily the Ukrainians have destroyed those forces.

I'm surprised Putin hasn't given Zelinsky a medal for such a service to Russia.
 

motorbike

Member
103
8
Sorry I dont follow, Russia's concerns were a military buildup in UKR aided, funded and trained by pro western interests- ergo anti Russian. That was communicated to the west as a red line but since we live in a liberal democratic world run by clowns who actually believe they can do as they please with few consequences to them or those their orbit, they poked the bear.

The problem is that you cant do whatever you like in the real world, but our liberal elites in Washington or Brussels or London have told themselves they can create reality, if you dont call it a problem it isn't one therefore war with Russia isn't a problem and we are winning and tell the media to print that thanks. Proof of stupidity is the ill thought out own goal of sanctions on their primary energy supplier. I think part of the problem is that our leaders no real experience of life outside the mutual bubble they inhabit. They also don't appear to have the will or the statecraft needed to end the war.
 

Rain Man

Super Anarchist
7,372
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Wet coast.
Has groupthink got in that far? Nobody is scared by an internet discussion but its you who are saying that its OK to invade Ukraine, I didnt, it just happened and I am an observer. My comment was that if western backed forces invade Russia, they have made it very clear that they will resort to all means at their disposal to defend their country and that would include I suppose shooting down US planes and sinking US ships.

At present its a proxy war which is just another name for war where the various interests get to fight each other without too much damage to their respective homeland.

In the context of the stated aims of the SMO, the attacks on the Kerch bridge and the sabotage of Nordstream are very dangerous escalations. There is some evidence that these were coordinated with the UK and US intelligence services and the response by Russia has been the gloves coming off.

I come at this from a different viewpoint, I dont see this invasion as a moral failing on the part of Putin or some conspiracy theory about US involvement. Russia was threatened and they attacked, this is what states do and either UKR or Russia is going to win.
WTF are you on about? Nobody wants to invade Russia. They will do only what is necessary to get Ukraine's land back. That does not mean there won't be disruption of supply lines inside Russia. Russia is doing that to Ukraine now - they deserve some if their own medicine.

The Kerch bridge is toast. It is just a matter of time.
 




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