Ukraine

Mark_K

Super Anarchist
Regardless of the outcome, Russia is now an international pariah and will no longer be a trusted or respected member of the international community, if they ever were. I will no longer purchase Russian products or associate with Russians who support the war, or stood by and did nothing. I suspect there are millions more who think the same. It will be a long time before Russian athletes are competing in international sport - we have seen our last Russian Grand Prix, for example. More importantly, they will no longer be able to sell energy to Europe in the volume they did in the past, the EU has learned the lesson on dependence on an unreliable supplier.

While Ukraine is taking significant damage now, they can and will rebuild, because the West will help. The damage to Russia's economy and international reputation will take generations to repair, and they will have to do it without help from the West. Unless democracy comes to Russia, their reputation is permanently damaged.

Moreover, there is no solution without Ukraine in NATO going forward. The irony is Russia asking for security guarantees. What good were the security guarantees Russia gave Ukraine?
A policy of framing this as Putin's war, rather than Russia's, may be wiser.
 

Ishmael

53,935
13,271
Fuctifino
Read history, it aint woke and btw no state needs to give you or me excuses to act.

"During the Iraq war, the Bush administration justified its pre-emptive military strike against Iraq on grounds of national security. The strike, carried out under the administration's National Security Strategy, asserts the right of the USA to take unilateral military action against rogue states and terrorist organizations so as to prevent or mitigate a presumed attack by such nations or organizations against the United States."

Who exactly is a rogue state or terrorist organization? That its purely determined by the perceived threat.

There are plenty of papers online that discuss the negative aspects of this doctrine but might is right out in the real world.

One word before I Ignore you.

Bullshit.
 

EYESAILOR

Super Anarchist
3,632
2,097
My sense is that Sevastopol is a big reason RU invaded, they want land bridge supply lines to there and want to restore water to Crimea - without which is a desert wasteland that can't feed itself. If UKR can strangle and eventually take that port, much of the reason for the invasion may turn to the even more pointless. Therefore, the sooner the better.
I am assuming you are referring to the 2014 occupation of Crimea. If so, yes you are correct Sevastopol is very important to the Russians.

The annexation of Crimea took place in March 2014 but the Russians had already taken control of Sevastopol in February 2014. They had over Russian 15,000 troops at their naval base. Sevastopol was (and still is ) the headquarters of the Russian Black Sea Fleet. When Ukraine gained its independence from the USSR, the Soviet Black Sea fleet was divided between Russia and Ukraine. Russia leased its port and facilities from the city and continued to headquarter the Russian Black Sea fleet in Sevastopol.

While Russia formally recognized the independence of Ukraine and included Crimea as part of Ukraine, neither side included Sevastopol as part of Crimea and Russia has never included Sevastopol as part of Ukraine and instead considered it a Russian Federal city with its own government independent of Crimea.

Ukraine obviously does not recognize Sevastopol as a Russian Federal city, but nor do they claim it as part of Crimea. In Ukrainian eyes , Sevastopol is a special-status city.

How Sevastopol is resolved will be very tricky. Perhaps it just becomes an independent city-state.
75% of the population of Sevastopol is Russian, from before the occupation.
 
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Stingray~

Super Anarchist
12,195
3,317
PNW
Thought I read somewhere that for a time after ‘91 Russia was paying around $100M/yr to lease Sevastopol. Regardless, thanks for the summary.
 

Stingray~

Super Anarchist
12,195
3,317
PNW
After the USA dropping out of the WC, this time to NED, am following my tradition of watching a movie called The Other Final. Beautiful, I recommend it.
 

chesirecat

Super Anarchist
1,372
796
Shoebox on M'way
I am assuming you are referring to the 2014 occupation of Crimea. If so, yes you are correct Sevastopol is very important to the Russians.

The annexation of Crimea took place in March 2014 but the Russians had already taken control of Sevastopol in February 2014. They had over Russian 15,000 troops at their naval base. Sevastopol was (and still is ) the headquarters of the Russian Black Sea Fleet. When Ukraine gained its independence from the USSR, the Soviet Black Sea fleet was divided between Russia and Ukraine. Russia leased its port and facilities from the city and continued to headquarter the Russian Black Sea fleet in Sevastopol.

While Russia formally recognized the independence of Ukraine and included Crimea as part of Ukraine, neither side included Sevastopol as part of Crimea and Russia has never included Sevastopol as part of Ukraine and instead considered it a Russian Federal city with its own government independent of Crimea.

Ukraine obviously does not recognize Sevastopol as a Russian Federal city, but nor do they claim it as part of Crimea. In Ukrainian eyes , Sevastopol is a special-status city.

How Sevastopol is resolved will be very tricky. Perhaps it just becomes an independent city-state.
75% of the population of Sevastopol is Russian, from before the occupation.
The Russians killed some 600 to 800 Ukrainian marines who surrendered at Sevastapol and were allowed to return to Ukraine. It was a false promise and the unarmed marines were massacred.
 

dogwatch

Super Anarchist
17,161
1,760
South Coast, UK
The 1st ship has arrived. As part of the program of President Vladimir Zelensky #GrainFromUkraine 25 thousand tons of Ukrainian humanitarian wheat were sent to Ethiopia. Together with partners Ukraine as a guarantor of food security makes all efforts to help people in need. Our partners buy Ukrainian grain to fight world hunger.

Ship left Odessa mid-November, now at Djibouti. https://www.vesselfinder.com/vessels/details/9573921
 
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dogwatch

Super Anarchist
17,161
1,760
South Coast, UK
Sorry but are you sure about that? I believe it's a bulk carrier that transported grain to from UKR to Ethiopia? If I'm not mistaken, that's what the text under the photo says and that's the most recent journey recorded for that ship, which is currently off Africa.
 

Rennmaus

Super Anarchist
10,546
2,076
Of course not.
Oooops, it looked like the Turkish generator ship that was promised :(.
Sorry but are you sure about that? I believe it's a bulk carrier that transported grain to from UKR to Ethiopia? If I'm not mistaken, that's what the text under the photo says and that's the most recent journey recorded for that ship, which is currently off Africa.
 

Ex Machina

Super Anarchist
1,234
553
New Zealand
Sorry but are you sure about that? I believe it's a bulk carrier that transported grain to from UKR to Ethiopia? If I'm not mistaken, that's what the text under the photo says and that's the most recent journey recorded for that ship, which is currently off Africa.
Yep sorry mate , can’t read Ukrainian . Assumed the same as renners did that it was one of two supposedly sent from turkey Genny ships .
 




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