Ukraine

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Bristol-Cruiser

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dogwatch said:
If UKR joined the EU, does the latter in fact want 10Ms of economic migrants.
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Not sure there would be 10s of millions, let's agree on several million. The reality is that the wealthier parts of the EU do need to enhance their labour force and Ukrainians coming in are going to be more skilled than those from sub-Saharan Africa. Remittances from folks working overseas and sending money. home can add up, as these figures from the World Bank show. I suspect most of the money going back to Tajikistan (33.4% of GDP) and the Kyrghiz Republic (32.7%) are earned in Russia. Interesting to see how that shakes out.

https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/BX.TRF.PWKR.DT.GD.ZS?most_recent_value_desc=true
 
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dogwatch

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I'd stick with 10Ms. Why would anyone young and mobile stay in Ukraine if you had FoM to the EU? Rational arguments about the benefits of immigration don't cut it in this populist era. As a British remainer (pro-EU), I can attest to that with some bitterness.
 
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enigmatically2

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German minister says that their Leopards will be in Ukr within 3 months. I've seen Russian estimates that it will be 2, and other views that the Brit C2s will get there quicker.
 
Steam Flyer

Steam Flyer

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Dervish said:
The most urgent question may not be the money or resources we are spending to support, and eventually help rebuild Ukraine.

It is arguably what is our plan to rebuild Russia? Right now, we don’t have one: and that’s how this whole mess started. Before 1994.
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You cannot force on people what they will not accept. Generations of fear and hatred of "The West" left the people of Russia wanting more autocracy and less freedom, in the name of security. In a land where starvation is literally a personal experience for many, that's not an irrational choice. But it also leaves fewer good options going forward.
 
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dogwatch

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Steam Flyer said:
You cannot force on people what they will not accept. Generations of fear and hatred of "The West" left the people of Russia wanting more autocracy and less freedom, in the name of security. In a land where starvation is literally a personal experience for many, that's not an irrational choice. But it also leaves fewer good options going forward.
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Yes but not only. After the collapse of the USSR, western self-styled experts counselled an ultra-rapid transit to a market economy. What actually happened was a small number of oligarchs seized the assets of the country. Fool me once etc.
 
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enigmatically2

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Whereas I think re-building Ukraine will actually be easier this time. There will be a greater social acceptance of western approaches and political desire to root ouy corruption etc (provided we give enough support that Ukr wins).

Russia? Frankly I susect we will do nothing because the issues will all remain
 
Rennmaus

Rennmaus

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dogwatch said:
The Baltic states have thrived post-USSR but most ex-USSR states have not, UKR included. Smart & motivated people in UKR with decent work ethic, absolutely, I've worked with some. Russia is certainly not going to be welcoming western reconstruction, nor do I believe western private capital would, for the most part, want to touch it with a barge pole. Too many have lost too much $$$, nor in the 1990 did most of the western multinationals that invested in Russia understand they were buying into a kleptocracy. My employer of the time, a large US company, certainly didn't. They learned.
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The other day I read that the post-sovjet parliamentary democracies fare much better than the presidential democracies. Sounds reasonable.
 
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Chasm

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As of yesterdays briefing of the German Parliament:
Training of Ukrainian crews in Germany can start as soon as "early February", looking at the calendar that is next week. Actual start date will be "when the crews arrive in Germany". Training will last for 6 weeks.
Delivery of tanks to Ukraine is expected for "the end of Q1" aka end of March.

Say training starts 2nd week of February. 6 weeks of training. Maybe the tank crews also ask for a bit of extra training like the PzH2000 crews did. Add another week. That leaves the last week of March to move tanks and crews back to Ukraine.
Not bad, someone had a plan.

It increasingly looks like Germany is sending the better stuff. Indications are that the tanks get indeed pulled from 414 battalion, the joint one with NL. Until mid 2022 it was part of the NATO Very High Readiness Joint Task Force and the EFP-Battlegroup Lithuania.
Mil-twitter is currently thinking not some basic 2A6 but indeed 2A6MA2, a refit from 2018. M has much improved mine protection, A2 adds digital coms & blue force tracker from NL.

Very interesting if true. There are only 2 or 3 newer variants. (2A6MA3, A7, A7 with Trophy active protection)
Even more interesting compared to the US contribution. The need to refit old M1 Abrams export variants reportedly moves the delivery date more and more into the future. Last time I looked news reporters were still outbidding each other...
 
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enigmatically2

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So they are in good condition because they drove off the ship? Wow.

To misquote the inimitable Douglas Adams

“Have you any idea how much damage that NATO tank would suffer if I just let it smash straight through your T-34s?” “How much?” said Arthur. “None at all,” said Mr. Prosser,”​


 
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B

Bristol-Cruiser

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dogwatch said:
I'd stick with 10Ms. Why would anyone young and mobile stay in Ukraine if you had FoM to the EU? Rational arguments about the benefits of immigration don't cut it in this populist era. As a British remainer (pro-EU), I can attest to that with some bitterness.
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Ukraine's population is about 45 million. If you look at the population pyramid below there are just not tens of millions of people in likely demographic groups, say 20 to 40 to make it happen. The Canadian government have increased immigration to record levels with no suggestion this will change.
1674752024245.png
 
Stingray~

Stingray~

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The borderline poverty is evident when watching much of the footage from rural areas along the battle lines but you get the impression that in the cities, most especially Kiev of course, life is pretty vibrant. It may be the case in UKR that the population has been abandoning those rural areas over time, as we have seen happen in many European and other countries, and moving to better more urban lifestyles they would not have much reason to leave from.
 
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dogwatch

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Stingray~ said:
The borderline poverty is evident when watching much of the footage from rural areas along the battle lines but you get the impression that in the cities, most especially Kiev of course, life is pretty vibrant. It may be the case in UKR that the population has been abandoning those rural areas over time, as we have seen happen in many European and other countries, and moving to better more urban lifestyles they would not have much reason to leave from.
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Lowest [email protected] in Europe (before the war). Lower than basket-case economies like Albania.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(PPP)_per_capita
 
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dogwatch

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Depends why they are returning. The Ukrainians who have been staying with someone I know have gone home because he is a retired electrician and decided he ought to be there.
 
Rain Man

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I think Ukraine will rebuild without much help from the West except perhaps financially. At least some of the rebuilding cost can be from recovered from frozen Russian assets. From what we have seen, it is a mistake to underestimate their abilities. The rebuilding phase should be left to the Ukrainians as it will be a big stimulus to their economy.

In any case, the war has to be won first.
 
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