Ukraine

[Dilligaf0220]

Not just you. I have been thinking the same, especially the bloated part. 

On a similar subject, Pres Z has looked remarkably strong throughout, his presence and his speeches have been surprisingly impressive given the situation. I sometimes wonder if he is getting help, being 'stage-managed' by some real pro's. 

Uh, Prez Z IS a real pro, he has been a tv actor & producer of top Ukrainian comedic tv for more than a decade.

In life imitating art, here's my fav clip from one of his shows when he is playing the Prez of the Ukraine getting a call from Angela Merkel about Ukraine's admission into the EU.

 

[estarzinger]

Russia can continue to pound these cities into rubble, but it's increasingly clear that's all they can do.

Russian artillery digging protected emplacements around Kyiv - suggests they are now preparing/planning for a longer pounding.

My sense is that since the 'blitzkrieg' failed, the Russians are now prioritized trying to clean up control in the eastern region, while pounding and threatening Kyiv to keep some amount of Ukr forces tied down there preventing them from reinforcing the east.

UKR still doing amazing well, but the mass of Russian force seems to perhaps be finally causing some effect in the east. Kyiv has really not seen anything yet.

On Sanctions . . . Europe is still paying russia between $1-3b per DAY for oil and gas.  That unfortunately really takes some bite out of the sanctions.

 

[Rennmaus]

Russian artillery digging protected emplacements around Kyiv - suggests they are now preparing/planning for a longer pounding.

My sense is that since the 'blitzkrieg' failed, the Russians are now prioritized trying to clean up control in the eastern region, while pounding and threatening Kyiv to keep some amount of Ukr forces tied down there preventing them from reinforcing the east.

UKR still doing amazing well, but the mass of Russian force seems to perhaps be finally causing some effect in the east. Kyiv has really not seen anything yet.

On Sanctions . . . Europe is still paying russia between $1-3b per DAY for oil and gas.  That unfortunately really takes some bite out of the sanctions.

Can Russia spend the money at all? 

 

[dogwatch]

Can Russia spend the money at all? 

If the world's drugs cartels can function, if Iran continues to trade despite sanctions, I doubt you can close Russia down altogether. Doesn't mean it isn't worth trying. You can make it harder and more expensive.

 

[floater]

kind of an interesting aside - if you simply look at Ukrainian army losses vs. gains - their armor has actually increased over the course of this war. Also, and I am far from expert on this, but it seems that most of the Russian tanks are mid 80's. its just not their latest and greatest tech - the budgets for which were apparently spent on super yachts anyway..

 

[idontwan2know]

Can't find the link, but there was a good article from someone interpreting the evolution of coverage on RT, which is a good barometer for what the Kremlin thinking is.

On the good side, there has been a lot less focus on "de-nazifying" and eliminating the Ukrainian government/state and more talk about Donbas and Crimea....that would seem to suggest that Putin is trying to lay the groundwork to negotiate Russia keeping Donbas/Crimea and Ukraine as a neutral (all of which he could have had before the invasion, btw) and declare victory.

On the bad side, lots more talk about Ukrainian WMD, which could be prestaging Russia using them themselves.

 

[floater]

this article doesn't have any answers, but it does have the advantage of reason. that is - intelligent commentary on the subject. https://kyivindependent.com/national/analysis-is-putin-going-to-launch-a-nuclear-war/

from Kyiv. written yesterday.

 

[estarzinger]

Can Russia spend the money at all? 

Officially China is not onboard with the sanctions.  So officially, the door is totally open there.

In practice we don't yet really know what they are going to do.  US trying to talk them into not providing 'war materials'.

I was just thinking about sanctions and the european cash for oil and gas because unless a diplomatic solution is reached it looks like a long war of attrition atm.  Looking at past sieges of actively defended urban areas . . . the siege of Kyiv could easily take 2 years (which ofc would be awful and devastating)

I believe Russia's primary aim all along has been to annex the east and have a weak non-nato Ukraine.  He signalled this aim from the start in two ways: (1) with the Russia parliament passing legislation aimed directly at the eastern provinces, and (2) by not ever having enough troops to occupy the whole Ukraine (pretty much everyone agreed that he needed like twice as many).  When/if they finally get control of the east Russia will probably be more serious at the negotiating table, I dont think they will be serious until then.

 

[Stingray~]

While also watching some news about the hellish conditions especially in Mariupol but elsewhere too, it has been of some 'comfort' to watch reports of the losses that UKR is inflicting on the invasion forces. In a segment I saw late last night it was reported (by maybe a former director of the CIA?) that UKR has jamming devices that have the RUS mil communications going FUBAR, and so then the RUS troops started using their cell phones. And now UKR has blocked all RUS area-code numbers from accessing their networks.

If the assessments of what Prez Z has most recently offered as the basis for negotiations are correct, he is offering a ceasefire based on a complete withdrawal by RUS from both E UKR and from Crimea. IF that is true, he could sense that the tide is or will be turning.

 

[Mambo Kings]

Full disclosure :  I have changed my views on the causes and possible outcomes of the invasion of Ukraine.

At work about 7 years ago we had looked at a project in Ukraine and decided there was too much political risk.  At the time, I did a lot of reading and spoke to a lot of "experts" on Ukraine.  I formed a view at the time that the US and her European allies were blindly trying to apply 21st century thinking to a region where 20th century realities were still dominant, that the area was a powder keg , and we were not going to risk millions of dollars of the partnerships money in the project.  At the time (and up until recently) I viewed it as a clumsy mistake for NATO and the EU to allude to forthcoming membership for Ukraine.  Ukraine was viewed as an essential "buffer state" by Russia. Any move to join NATO and the EU would disrupt a fragile 20th century balance of power in the post-Soviet region.  Russia would be no more likely to tolerate Ukraine becoming a NATO base than we (the US) would tolerate Russian missiles in Cuba.  Russia would support Eastern separatists in much the same way as the USA supported the Contras in Nicaragua.  The USA has made it crystal clear that it will not tolerate unfriendly regimes in  border territories in Central America, and Russia endeavored to make it clear that the European buffer states were equally sacred.  My view was that the West should recognize realpolitik and a smart move would have been to negotiate an agreement where, in exchange for Russia agreeing to recognize Ukraine's borders , we (the West) would agree that Ukraine would not be allowed membership of NATO or full membership of the EU.  I felt that if this had been done promptly, then the Crimea would still be part of Ukraine. 

I was wrong.

I underestimated how much Ukraine and the Ukrainian people want to be part of Europe. They look West not East. It is an easy mistake to make. When you are in Ukraine, Russian is the first language for a large part of the population and a large part of the remaining population are bilingual Ukrainian/Russian. At first glance, and on a first visit, it just feels like the cultural and economic links face East.  However, dig deeper, look beyond the golden domes of the Russian Orthodox churches and Ukraine is a very cosmopolitan, multi lingual society. Ukraine political life has zero resemblance to the political life of the everyday Russian . Russians have kinda accepted their lot. The Ukrainians have not. They yearn for freedom and they yearn to be part of Europe .....and incredibly they are prepared to die for it. 

The EU cannot do a deal to prevent Ukraine shifting from Buffer state to European state because its happening inside the Ukraine whether the EU wants it or not.  Yes, NATO, the US and the Western Allies were incredibly clumsy in how they handled things , but you cant push water up hill.

Nor do I think that Russia can push water uphill. They simply do not have the economic might to conquer and rule a hostile country of 44 million people prepared to die for their independence. Heck if the US cannot run Afghanistan, an impoverished nation which basically invited us in, what chance to the Russians have against Ukrainian insurgents who will never give in. 

The real question here is how quickly can Russia, Ukraine and the West resolve this?  Because if this drags on, and it could drag on for a very long time, even if Russia wins the initial siege, then the losers are The West, and Russia the real winner is China.   Unfortunately we need Russia to see this and they don't.

 

[Stingray~]

^ I see no way China benefits from any of this but that's a great post.

Don't get me started on when I first took interest in Ukraine, when all the crap with Manafort and then "But I need a favor" DJT with Giuliani and the US ambassador firing and etc....  Was a real eye-opener into how things there had actually changed from the apparently kleptocratic situation before the former Prez got forced out and Z got elected.  

 

[floater]

yup. the biggest contributor to the Ukrainian war effort. is Russia.

 

[Xlot]

Loro Piana under fire in Italy for the 12k€ jacket Putin was wearing at the stadium

 

[Stingray~]

Loro Piana under fire in Italy for the 12k€ jacket Putin was wearing at the stadium

Funny.

Have any/many Italian companies 'suspended' operations in Russia? The list of US ones is long, even the 700 McDonalds stores. Amazingly, they (McD) will continue paying salaries for now.

 

[Xlot]

Funny.

Have any/many Italian companies 'suspended' operations in Russia? The list of US ones is long, even the 700 McDonalds stores. Amazingly, they (McD) will continue paying salaries for now.

Oh yes, all of them. Even Ferrari has stopped building cars for Russian clients

 

[Stingray~]

Oh yes, all of them. Even Ferrari has stopped building cars for Russian clients

That's gotta hurt!  Classier example than McD's, have to give you that.

 

[Mambo Kings]

Oh yes, all of them. Even Ferrari has stopped building cars for Russian clients

Shout out for Bacardi.

Prior to the crisis, Russia was Bacardi's second largest market after the USA.  They are a private family owned company who have the freedom to do what they think is right, unaffected by investors or PR.

They have suspended operations and sales in Russia. 

That is going to be a big hurt on the bottom line, and no dividend checks this year. 

Snippets of conversation overheard at the Bacardi tent in Miami from unattributed member of the Bacardi family (and friend to the sailing community) during the Bacardi Invitational/Bacardi Cup:

Bacardi "we voted at the board ....unanimous.......our second largest market? Pah, we tighten our belts"

Question " That's great....why no big announcement?"

Bacardi : " ...about principle...we remember what it was like to be refugees....drink as much as you like, its not going anywhere"

(Note they subsequently issued a statement saying exports to Russia suspended, no advertising investment, and $1m to support red cross in Ukraine)

There were some other comments which dont bear repeating here ( your imagination can fill the gaps with aspersions to the quality of cheap Russian vodka and who can drink their own etc.....gotta love the passion of the Cubans) but the traditional Miami toast of "Cuba Libre!" over the course of the night was augmented by toasts of "Kyev Libre!"  

It was a fun evening which went late into the night.

In my household, Russian vodka gets poured down the sink. We're drinking Grey Goose, manufactured in France by Bacardi.

 

[Xlot]

In this tragedy, a bit of comic relef: video in the NYT showing a group of spetsnaz breaking into a building, and them cramming into the lift to go up ...

 

[enigmatically2]

In my household, Russian vodka gets poured down the sink. 

The perrenial mistake of protests. Pouring it down the sink does not help because  you've already paid for it. So it's just wasteful and harmful to environment.

Just don't buy any more.

Not as bad as the idiots who bought books to burn them, thus putting sales up (though anyone that burns books is an idiot anyway)

 

[floater]

Big news today folks. It appears that the Russian campaign has culminated.