Ukraine

[Mark_K]

The Greek city-states nearly always had a war happening somewhere along the peninsula, hot or cold. Some bit of ground somebody was contending was theirs. Check our The Classical period.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_wars_involving_Greece

 

[Kalimotxo]

German military intelligence now reports 300,000 dead or maimed Russians and 100.000 dead or maimed Ukrainians for an italian shithouse full of black mould in Gelendzhik.

 

[Raz'r]

at least in syria, the turks did have significant infantry, but isis was using atgm's with 4 or 5 km range - somewhat hard to screen every possible LOS in 5 km radius (without us style airpower).

Now ofc the turks were not so skilled at this. Put their tanks in positions with great lines of fire to support the assault, but also where ISIS had great sight lines on them. And they got hit by IED's and mines, having moved into some positions that ISIS had prepared as kill zones.

My only point is that it is more subtle and needs more skill than just 'some infantry beating the bushes to screen the tanks'. Even the US in Iraq had 'By March 2005, approximately 80 Abrams tanks were forced out of action by enemy attacks', and the US is 'the expert' on combined arms.

Less terrific news from one of my friends in Ukr - I will simply quote his comment this morning to me. "We've got a terrible thing going on in town today. A lot of military are grabbing people on the streets and dragging them to war. Not really knowing what's going on. I had to cancel all my business for the morning. And stay home... That's how they came home, banging on the door. This is everyday life in Ukraine." First time I have heard him sound depressed about Ukr. He is 'fortunate' in that he is already working with the Ukr military building computers for them, so not going to be sent for cannon fodder. In an existential war you can't really fault the government press gang, but it is hard on people who viewed themselves as western/free/democratic.

Thinking about that earlier today, "how long can Ukraine hold on" - due to sheer numbers of people. I don't know. It's not indefinitely.

 

[estarzinger]

Was your specific or general attendance promoted and/or supported by the administration?

sure, team selected by sport governing body which has a charter from the government

Was the fact that you were competing spread throughout the state-owned media and other US-owned propaganda outlets?

minor sport, so no one really cared about us, but our results were included in 'USA totals', pretty much like Russian athletes in similar minor sports.

Were you on leave from your military post in Iraq when you were competing? Etc.

I personally think if you are trying to exclude athletes, then those actively serving in the Russian military would be a starting point. But it could easily get a bit murky because Olympic athletes in Russia are an elite class, none of them is posted to combat in Ukraine. They get the best of everything when they are at that level. Most of them get tossed in the trash when their days of glory are over, while a few serial gold medal winners in prime sports get plush lives.

 

[estarzinger]

Thinking about that earlier today, "how long can Ukraine hold on" - due to sheer numbers of people. I don't know. It's not indefinitely.

my take from happenings in my friends's town - is that some in Ukr military/government are quite worried about the possible Russian offensive with a big troop count. They can again defend with tactical withdrawals until the Russians are over-extended, but I think they don't want to give up that much ground again.

 

[Stingray~]

my take from happenings in my friends's town - is that some in Ukr military/government are quite worried about the possible Russian offensive with a big troop count.

Thanks for posting that most recent one too, about your friend getting knocked on his front door in Odessa by UKR 'military police' trying to send him to the front lines. It suggests that despite all we hear so much about the RU conscripts being untrained for warfare, that UKR has similar problems. A touch of reality there.

What a horrific mess......

 

[Raz'r]

Thanks for posting that most recent one too, about your friend getting knocked on his front door in Odessa by UKR 'military police' trying to send him to the front lines. It suggests that despite all we hear so much about the RU conscripts being untrained for warfare, that UKR has similar problems. A touch of reality there.

What a horrific mess......

UKR gains aside, I've always thought that if Russia really wants Ukraine, to the point of destroying it, they could. It won't be cheap or easy, and will have other ramifications for a long time, but they could destroy it.

 

[Stingray~]

UKR gains aside, I've always thought that if Russia really wants Ukraine, to the point of destroying it, they could. It won't be cheap or easy, and will have other ramifications for a long time, but they could destroy it.

It strikes me as a little weird how much 'they' are willing to demolish in the territories they want to take permanently. But maybe they take a long view on it. And Mariupol apparently has fresh new blocks of apartments already built.

But yes, there does appear to be a recognition all around about how the war needs to be contained somewhat. RU could flatten Kharkiv easily; their objective is surely Donbas and the land bridge to Crimea.

 

[Raz'r]

It strikes me as a little weird how much 'they' are willing to demolish in the territories they want to take permanently. But maybe they take a long view on it. And Mariupol apparently has fresh new blocks of apartments already built.

But yes, there does appear to be a recognition all around about how the war needs to be contained somewhat. RU could flatten Kharkiv easily; their objective is surely Donbas and the land bridge to Crimea.

I am not sure at all what Russia's objective is. I'm not sure THEY know what the objective is.

 

[NotSoFast]

If the western tank deal with Ukraine really involves 4 different types now:
1) Challenger 2
2) Leopard 1
3) Leopard 2
4) M1A2 Abrams

Is there any reason why the type count can not be reduced while keeping the unit count given to Ukraine the same?
For example, could some European NATO country buy all M1A2 Abrams from Ukraine and sell the very same amount of Leopard 2 for the same prize, like 1$, possibly even before delivery, and replace all their existing Leopard 2 tanks with M1A2 by buying some more directly from USA when a production slot become available?
I might be misinformed, but as far as I know both Norway and Portugal have currently Leopard 2 numbers just above 31 donated by USA and less than 40. There are some more countries with more than 40 but less than 50, and even more outside Europe.
End result would be that the tank deal between USA and Germany is followed, assuming it doesn't require Ukraine to keep and use their M1A2, just that USA does give them to Ukraine.
For the country changing tank type from Leopard 2 to M1A2, it does induce some costs for training and maintenance, but not more than many countries with similar GDP are already using for donations of weapons. Said tank types also have somewhat different properties affecting operations planning, but would that be a change for better or worse for their point of view?
For Ukraine it would allow dropping out one type all together, significantly easing maintenance and logistics as well as training needs and possibly even simplifying operations planning.

Any reason why this would be a bad idea?

 

[Stingray~]

Is there any reason why the type count can not be reduced while keeping the unit count given to Ukraine the same?

Fully agree. The logistics for supporting multiple models could be a nightmare.

 

[MR.CLEAN]

sure, team selected by sport governing body which has a charter from the government

minor sport, so no one really cared about us, but our results were included in 'USA totals', pretty much like Russian athletes in similar minor sports.

I personally think if you are trying to exclude athletes, then those actively serving in the Russian military would be a starting point. But it could easily get a bit murky because Olympic athletes in Russia are an elite class, none of them is posted to combat in Ukraine. They get the best of everything when they are at that level. Most of them get tossed in the trash when their days of glory are over, while a few serial gold medal winners in prime sports get plush lives.

In other words, high level sport is done quite differently in Russia than most other places, because it is one of the few arenas in which they can beat other major world powers, and they leverage every victory in the promotion of Russkiy Mir via a huge communication apparatus. Who sent out the press releases in your sport?

 

[Rain Man]

Fully agree. The logistics for supporting multiple models could be a nightmare.

The problem isn't type count. The problem is order of magnitude. Ukraine needs ten times more tanks than what the West is offering in order to both withstand the coming offensive and launch a course-offensive of their own.

 

[Zonker]

This is the first I've heard. Another game changer, just like the HIMARS. They have a small warhead of 36 lbs of explosive.

US to send Ukraine longer-range bombs in latest turnaround

After months of agonizing, the U

abcnews.go.com

"After months of agonizing, the U.S has agreed to send longer-range bombs to Ukraine

Ukrainian leaders have urgently pressed for longer-range munitions, and on Thursday officials said the U.S. will send an undisclosed number of the ground-launched, small diameter bombs, which have a range of about 95 miles (150 kilometers). The officials spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss details of the aid package not yet made public. "


This green line - from inside Ukraine held territory, is well under 95 miles. Suddenly one of two supply routes into Crimea is within range.

Just have to drop that pesky Kerch bridge and suddenly Russian troops in the Crimean peninsula are without supplies.

 

[barfy]

edit : subtitled

 

[barfy]

And for a positive spin:

 

[LeoV]

AP news;

Will be a while for the new missiles will be in Ukraine.
Interesting the integrating of missile systems. In a few weeks patriots will be active.

 

[estarzinger]

In other words, high level sport is done quite differently in Russia than most other places,

No, not what I said. I guess China's approach is quite similar to Russia's, although better executed (at least the ped side of it). A whole bunch of countries have similarly centrally driven sports. The modern Olympics always seems to me to be specifically organized around the celebration of national pride, both for hosting and for winning. Is (unfortunately) good marketing, something the AC needed to relearn thru the Coutts/Ellison days.

We are getting a bit off topic with this - the question was whether - EVERY ATHLETE is an INDIVIDUAL PROMOTOR of the evil - is a fair statement. I suggest it could have been much better phrased - to express disgust at the Russian government and not tar every athlete. The objective, I guess, is to deny Russian government a propaganda platform. Instead, they are demonizing individual athletes. This is powerful Ukr propaganda. It is unfortunately typical in war to move to dehumanize everyone, all individuals, in the opposing country.

Should Russia be banned because the Russian government is evil is a substantially different question than are all Russian athletes individual promoters of evil. I entirely disagree with the later. I personally think on the former that systematic repeated state-sponsored cheating is sufficient reason to ban Russia from the Olympic movement - it is directly against the game's supposed ethos. I, unfortunately, think there are quite a number of countries/governments which are (or have) done very repugnant things (war crimes and such) and personally don't think individual athletes should generally be punished for that.

Ukr whole electrical system seems basically shut down this morning (at least by poling my contacts).

 

[dogwatch]

There was piece in the UK Guardian this morning confirming that your anecdote about people being pulled off the street in UKR for military service seems to be a systematic process being rolled out.

Also a brief mention of https://www.iainduncansmith.org.uk/news/ukraines-front-lines-everyone-said-me-please-dont-forget-us

Our visit to the area’s military hospital was deeply troubling. Housed in a bomb-damaged building and still attacked by Russian rockets daily, it was here that we were reminded of the desperate after-effects of post-traumatic stress disorder. Many Ukrainian soldiers take their lives every day as a result and desperately need help.

Overstretched already, these hospitals urgently need combat stress specialists from the UK and the USA.

For those outside the UK, Iain Duncan Smith (IDS) is an MP, ex-leader of the Conservative Party and an ex army officer. While I don't agree with all of his politics, I consider him a paid-up member of the human race.

 

[Stingray~]

This is the first I've heard. Another game changer, just like the HIMARS. They have a small warhead of 36 lbs of explosive.

US to send Ukraine longer-range bombs in latest turnaround

After months of agonizing, the U

abcnews.go.com

"After months of agonizing, the U.S has agreed to send longer-range bombs to Ukraine

Ukrainian leaders have urgently pressed for longer-range munitions, and on Thursday officials said the U.S. will send an undisclosed number of the ground-launched, small diameter bombs, which have a range of about 95 miles (150 kilometers). The officials spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss details of the aid package not yet made public. "


This green line - from inside Ukraine held territory, is well under 95 miles. Suddenly one of two supply routes into Crimea is within range.

Just have to drop that pesky Kerch bridge and suddenly Russian troops in the Crimean peninsula are without supplies.

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here too