Ukraine

[P Flados]

Perhaps. Then again, perhaps Ukraine and Russia can re-establish cordial relations after this war too. Predictions are difficult to make, particularly about the future.

Prior to 2014, there was ample cordial attitude towards the Russian government and the people of Russia from many in Ukraine.

In 2014 Ukraine as a whole decided that they did not want to continue with the way things had been.

This was an opportunity for Russia to stand back, let it happen and show the world that Russia could behave itself. Had Russia done this, they would still be raking in huge profits from sales of oil and gas to Europe, Ukraine would never have put into a position to be eager to join NATO and there would be next to zero threat against Russia from any other country.

The 2014 theft of Crimea and the meddling in the Donbass turned many in Ukraine (but not all by any means) against Russia.

The actions by Russia in 2022 (especially the treatment of civilians on both sides of the line of contact) has turned opinions drastically. Probably better than 95% of those that were not anti-Russian in 2021 are anti-Russian now. And the percentage of Ukrainians that are now extremely anti-Russian has probably gone from a small minority to a large segment (possibly a majority).

The next opportunity for cordial relations between Ukraine and Russia will probably only start after Russia changes out its government for one that is willing to admit the crimes of the Putin government and apologize to the applicable neighboring countries. Given the lack of any movement by Russia in the direction of renouncing its imperialism, I doubt that this is likely to happen while anyone currently an adult in Ukraine is still living.

 

[phill_nz]

Agree, sitting on the sidelines discussing/sharing war porn is not exactly skin in the game. I feel very moved by the losses in UKR as a human being, for the loss of life caused by the actions of both sides, but I despise the feeding of young bodies into the meatgrinder by bloodless war profiteers and all their supporters

yet no support for the obvious best end to the war
ie
for the rushtards to fuk off home and stay there
then being responsible enough to compensate ukraine for their mistake
and withdrawing from the security council as a morally disgraceful example of a country not qualified to be on it

 

[dogwatch]

Yes, but if the Ukrainians agree to return to the state of affairs which existed prior to 2014 (guaranteed access to Sevastopole and the water turned back on) it could it be.

To recap, could be face saving for Russia.

Not under Putin. His domestic credibility, popularity and power rest on that recovery, as he presents it, of Crimea. Lose Crimea and he loses influence, office, wealth, liberty and his life, in that order. There are red lines in shades of grey but retaining Crimea is as red as it gets for him.

So post Putin? I see no reason other than blind optimism to think his successor is more likely to want to make a peace in which Russia has clearly lost Crimea, which is a historical strategic base for them. They are more likely to be an ultra nationalist than a peacemaker.

I do think there will be an agreed peace once both sides have fought to exhaustion and it won’t involve Ukraine recovering Crimea.

it should also be remembered that the modern population of Crimea is Russian. It’s been a pleasant retirement home for Russians. The original Tatar population was long since expelled and is not coming back. There is no realistic reason to believe a majority in Crimea want to belong to a west-facing Ukraine. That is a different situation to most of the rest of pre 2014 Ukraine.

To be clear, this is not what I want, it is what I think most likely to happen.

 

[dogwatch]

Nobody is going to end the world over this, people won't push those buttons even if Putin did order it.

Half way around the world, you are prepared to make such cheerful assumptions. The UK, like swathes of Northern Europe, enjoyed one round of radioactive fallout from Ukraine. We’d rather not have another.

 

[dogwatch]

Yes, but from now on Ukraine will need NATO protection.

It won’t get it. Consider the fuss over a few dozen ageing tanks. Consider the refusal to provide even dated aircraft or missiles capable of firing 100 miles into Russia. NATO isn’t going to war on Ukraine’s behalf.

 

[phill_nz]

it should also be remembered that the modern population of Crimea is Russian. It’s been a pleasant retirement home for Russians. The original Tatar population was long since expelled and is not coming back.

so you have never heard of the concept of the dispossessed wanting too return to their ancestral lands
and the modern court belief they have every right to

some might say ... lucky you
cause
it's a thing

so you not only have a majority of the sane world supporting their return
but the majority of legal minds as well

so now we have a competition
will the tartars or the ukrainians be the most desperate to have the rushtards back at the sevastopol base

 

[barfy]

It’s been a pleasant retirement home for Russians.

Too bad. Occupation by stealth, deceit, and force so the wealthy can enjoy a nice seaside, well, it's not on.

 

[dogwatch]

In 2014 Ukraine as a whole decided that they did not want to continue with the way things had been.

Ukraine as a majority decided that. Not quite the same thing and the difference is salient. In many areas of the world borders have been stable for centuries, bar some tinkering. Modern Ukraine and Poland are not such areas. It is important for peace that borders are nonetheless respected and for that reason, among others, Putin's war cannot be justified. It is also clear that treaty commitments he makes cannot be trusted.

Nevertheless, it is delusional to believe that in eastern Ukraine, any solid collective pro-western sentiment exists. If one pays attention, there are plenty of reports from western journalists suggesting otherwise. Plus you may encounter Ukrainian refugees who have fled their homes in Donbas yet remain pro-Putin. Strange but I know this to be true.

 

[Rain Man]

It won’t get it. Consider the fuss over a few dozen ageing tanks. Consider the refusal to provide even dated aircraft or missiles capable of firing 100 miles into Russia. NATO isn’t going to war on Ukraine’s behalf.

Why would Ukraine accept anything less? The Budapest accords were supposed to guarantee Ukraine's security. It hasn't gone well. Is there any doubt that NATO would have stepped in if Ukraine had been a member last February?

 

[dogwatch]

Why would Ukraine accept anything less? The Budapest accords were supposed to guarantee Ukraine's security. It hasn't gone well. Is there any doubt that NATO would have stepped in if Ukraine had been a member last February?

Ukraine was not a member last February and I've argued it isn't about to become one. Ukraine will ultimately accept what the west requires them to accept. They don't have the resources to fight on indefinitely and alone. Brutal but true.

 

[barfy]

Yup.

 

[enigmatically2]

Zelensky on his first trip to uk since feb 24 in UK - Unconfirmed reports that UK will provide longer range weapons, and will start training Ukr pilots on fighter jets

 

[Steam Flyer]

did you read Branko Marcetic's article i posted? You are parroting a simplistic narrative created for mass consumption.

As opposed to parroting a fact-free yay-Putin narrative, like you?

 

[dogwatch]

Zelensky on his first trip out of Ukr since feb 24 in UK - Unconfirmed reports that UK will provide longer range weapons, and will start training Ukr pilots on fighter jets

Interesting and confirmed.

PM extends Ukraine military training to pilots and marines as President Zelenskyy makes first visit to the UK since Russian invasion

President Zelenskyy arrives in the UK today to meet the Prime Minister and visit Ukrainian troops.

www.gov.uk

Only a few days ago, USA and UK were ruling out supply of jets. FT is suggesting training on Hawks, I'm not really sure you'd call those "fighter jets". Mid 1970s design intended for training, still used for that purpose. No other media seems to be saying Hawks.

 

[enigmatically2]

Makes sense to start them training on the Hawks though.

There are I believe some retired Tornados kicking around that might be easily made flight worthy. Some of those, possibly with Storm Shadow to give the long range strike?

 

[dogwatch]

Could be. I'm just trying to parse what the different sources are saying. Not clear yet but something is happening.

Sounds like RAF fast jet pilots do "at least" 120 hours on a prop-driven trainer followed by 180 hours in Hawks, before going on to type conversion.

Fast Jet Training - RAF Museum

Fast Jet Training Pupils destined for fast jets face the longest training period of the three streams on offer. By the time they reach an Operational Conversion …

www.rafmuseum.org.uk

 

[slug zitski]

Your guys .....
Attacking Russians with chemical weapons

 

[enigmatically2]

At the moment it is nothing more than an allegation, and not AFAIK by anyone from Russian military.
The video is more consistent with fragmentation & concussion grenades. Indeed you can see evidence of a wound at one point.
Use of Chemical weapons (by other side) would be outrageous but I see nothing there to suggest they have

 

[Keith]

 

[Keith]

Notorious Russian nationalist Igor Mangushev shot dead in Ukraine

Igor Mangushev was shot in the head and his killing sparks speculation about who was to blame.

www.bbc.com

"Notorious Russian army captain and mercenary Igor Mangushev has died in hospital, days after he was shot in the head at close range in occupied Ukraine, his friends have said.
Mangushev's wife Tatyana described his killing as an execution."