Ukraine

[Stingray~]

Nukes probably. Maybe biologics. Probably not chemical.

Those are all red lines to my mind. 'Cross it and get annihilated' needs to be the message, while also revealing to Putin how we can see which hand he is currently holding the phone with and what make, model and color it is.. His call list, everything. 

The situation is far too one-sided, approaching red lines even now, some initiative has to be taken to very suddenly turn the tide. Cyber could be part of it?

 

[floater]

if the plan is to lay siege to Kyiv.

you still don't get it. Russia has completely fucked up their "plan".

right now. the next step - at least for the armies near Kyiv - looks more like surrender. they are not going to lay siege to Kyiv.

1. Study the map above.
   
2. find Kyiv. and
   
3. realize that the only boundaries shifting right now are in Ukraine's favor.
   

 

[Stingray~]

you still don't get it. Russia has completely fucked up their "plan".

right now. the next step - at least for the armies near Kyiv - looks more like surrender. they are not going to lay siege to Kyiv.

1. Study the map above.
   
2. find Kyiv. and
   
3. realize that the only boundaries shifting right now are in Ukraine's favor.
   

I wish I had your enthusiasm but if Mariupol is any example, then Kyiv is in for heavy bombardment from the air for weeks, before those Russian tanks would decide to move in tighter. It is what the most respected military experts are saying, don't blame me. It is reduced to a war of attrition now, standard Russian modus operandi. Problem is, the targets of devastation are in only Ukraine and all the 'dumb' bombs don't care where they are landing. We are past the point of anyone 'winning.'

 

[P Flados]

The war may truthfully be heading toward something called "Stalemate".  Russia has more resources and a leadership that does not seem likely to give up.  Ukraine has become unified, motivated and determined.  They seem to feel that fighting (and dying if need be) is better than giving up.  They are likely to have sufficient outside help to keep going and to be very hard to defeat.

When you see the phrase "stalemate", you need to recognize this is a term use by military analysts that describe one of the worst possible outcomes for the local population and the armies on both sides.

The link below it to writeup by US military think tank.  Although they may be biased as far as the outcome they would like to see, their assessments seem to be as honest and factual of what is going on.  Their discussion of "Stalemate" is not in the least encouraging.    https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/what-stalemate-means-ukraine-and-why-it-matters

 

[ro!]

I wish I had your enthusiasm but if Mariupol is any example, then Kyiv is in for heavy bombardment from the air for weeks, before those Russian tanks would decide to move in tighter. It is what the most respected military experts are saying, don't blame me. It is reduced to a war of attrition now, standard Russian modus operandi. Problem is, the targets of devastation are in only Ukraine and all the 'dumb' bombs don't care where they are landing. We are past the point of anyone 'winning.'

Once again the pinots kicked in and the PNW surrender monkey is wringing his hands, he advocated on day one they should all surrender and accept their fate to Russian hands, and then changed that to everyone bombing the shit out of Russia!                             Now he’s giving up again!

We all know that no one wins this war, but we don’t want Ukraine to lose…

spinbot..ffs…shut the fuck up…

 

[dogwatch]

Forgive me, but you seem to vacillate between total surrender and thermo-nuclear war. Maybe try to find a happy medium position?

So SR is bemused as to the facts of the situation and confused as to the best way out of the horror. Fair enough, I say. Anyone claiming clarity on either at this point is peddling snake oil.

 

[chesirecat]

Estimated 90% of this Para group are KIA

 

[chesirecat]

Other news.

Frostbite becoming a problem including lack of tents near Kherson.

Mariupol by no means defeated. News of a fightback and becoming a meat grinder for RU.

Shortage of fuel for RU navy since Turkey has blocked the Black Sea off.

Ukraine has captured a Krasukha-4 mobile electronic warfare system (1RL257). This can jam imaging sensors, warning and targeting systems and one of the most capable outfits RU have. US would be very pleased to get their hands on this.

 

[dogwatch]

Estimated 90% of this Para group are KIA

Estimated by who and how?

 

[dogwatch]

Frostbite becoming a problem including lack of tents near Kherson.

Met Office says it is pleasantly spring-like. https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/forecast/u8r1mbdx7#?date=2022-03-23

Given the shut-down of independent media on both sides, we can't assume what we are told is necessarily true. To be clear however, I have no doubt that Russia is doing terrible things.

 

[chesirecat]

Met Office says it is pleasantly spring-like. https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/forecast/u8r1mbdx7#?date=2022-03-23

Given the shut-down of independent media on both sides, we can't assume what we are told is necessarily true. To be clear however, I have no doubt that Russia is doing terrible things.

Intercepted near Mykolaiv. No confirmed date as yet

 

[dogwatch]

Ukrainian state propaganda then. I hope the Russians are having their arses kicked but a propaganda video doesn't make it so.

 

[chesirecat]

Estimated by who and how?

Need to go back thru my list but they also went thru the meat grinder at Mariupol been been withdrawn.

Will have a look but think its was the 31st

 

[chesirecat]

Well this is going to become interesting in a few weeks

"The information on preparation of blocking by forces of Rosguard of the movement on the Crimean bridge towards the Russian Federation is confirmed. The occupation authorities will also restrict the movement of the Parma crossing and air connections of the peninsula with Russia.

The formal reason for such actions is the fight against Ukrainian saboteurs and the prevention of possible "terrorist attacks".

Thus, Putin's government is trying to respond to the panic among Russian citizens who illegally moved to the Ukrainian Crimea after February 2014. The occupiers are trying to stop the flow of refugees from the peninsula. In recent weeks, following the Russian military invasion of Ukraine in February, there has been a trend towards the outflow of Russian citizens from Crimea. At the same time, in the first ranks of the "fugitives" - members of the families of Russian officers, law enforcement officers and representatives of the occupation administration of Sevastopol. They urgently sell real estate, change the registration of residence, remove business and assets from the peninsula.

By restricting the possibility of leaving Crimea, Putin is actually holding hostage 600,000 Russian citizens who are currently illegally on the peninsula and are beginning to understand the uncertainty of their legal status.

Source   https://gur.gov.ua/content/putin-hotuietsia-zablokuvaty-vyizd-rosiian-z-okupovanoho-krymu.html

 

[dogwatch]

It would be interesting if Crimea were retaken. Spin that, Putin.

 

[estarzinger]

It would be interesting if Crimea were retaken. Spin that, Putin.

Crimea, and the Sevastopol Naval base (home port of the Black Sea fleet), is a very sticky problem.  It is Ukrainian (arguably depending on where you go in history) and they have every justification to demand it back.  But it is also a core asset of the Russian Navy, has been under russian control since the 1950's, and the Russian military will take an enormous amount of pain before they give it up/back.

 Zelenskyy is ofc well aware of this.  It is one of the reasons he has floated the referendum concept rather than simply declaring it not on the table.  The other reason for the referendum idea is that if the Russians ever manage to install a puppet government he wants to try to block the legitimacy of any grants of territory to russia they might attempt to make by fiat.

Atm both sides seem to believe they can make the other side lose/give up if they simply persevere long enough.  Given this neither side is yet prepared to be 'serious' at the negotiating table.  Personally I think unfortunately there is alot of death and destruction yet to come. I would love to be proven wrong in this.

If Ukrainian forces manage to get to the verge of decisively defeating the russian forces in the eastern provinces.  I suspect Russian would then be ready to come to the table and be willing to give up everything but Crimea.  To regain control of Sevastopol I think Ukraine will likely have to take it by force, or at least be in a very strong position to do so.

My thoughts have turned to what broader implications this conflict should have. What implications for policy toward Taiwan?  What implications for Western military organization - I think the American generals are fooling themselves if they think they would not suffer a blood bath against an organized insurgency with unlimited AT & AA rockets (edit: & armed drones) and targeting intelligence.?  What implications for energy policy (and reliance on ME Oil and the religious civil war there and iran)? What implications for the 'illiberal' states in Nato and the EU (like Hungary and Turkey)?

 

[idontwan2know]

Saw some reports that Ukraine may actually be close to encircling Russian forces northwest of Kyiv in the Hostomel/Irpin area. Not clear exactly how many troops that is, but it would be a significant morale issue for the Russians for sure.

 

[floater]

If Ukrainian forces manage to get to the verge of decisively defeating the russian forces in the eastern provinces.

that seems a big ask, but I guess you are really probing into the future here. Many of us are aware of the present Russian strategy of trying to cut off the Ukrainian eastern army - the Russians will fight south from Kharkiv and north from Mariupol. but, I won't bet on the Russian army here. As I mentioned on Sunday, the Russian campaign has culminated - their offensive capability has essentially ground to a halt as they have outrun their supplies.

so. Russia is on the offensive on the eastern front. but good luck with that. which, in the end, might very well open the door to Ukraine going on the offensive there.

now. the good news. on the western front. It appears that the Russian army to the NW of Kyiv has been surrounded, as I mentioned last night. If successfully cut off from Belarus, this could very well mean the surrender of an entire Russian army. But, they - the Russians - will be fighting for their lives here. as they are presently both surrounded and cut off. boom.

from a journalist in Kyiv - as reported this morning: 

 

[floater]

oh my. Russians getting beat back NE of Kyiv as well. the Russian bear just a stuffed animal?

 

[enigmatically2]

Ukrainian state propaganda then. I hope the Russians are having their arses kicked but a propaganda video doesn't make it so.

Maybe. Maybe not. You'd be surprised how easy it is to get frostbite. You only need temperatures below 0 at night and it can start. With poor nutrition, poor shelter, poor clothing and poor training it can happen very easily. I remember in army training having that lecture on a very hot day when dehydration and sunstroke was a risk, before we set off for a night ambush drill. Lying on the ground for several hours did get bloody cold. You can't take camping comforts on such tasks.

You would think that the Russian army being better at this, but the conscripts from the cities may not be