lol. try significant existential issue.Saw some reports that Ukraine may actually be close to encircling Russian forces northwest of Kyiv in the Hostomel/Irpin area. Not clear exactly how many troops that is, but it would be a significant morale issue for the Russians for sure.
wrong. reported by Pentagon.Ukrainian state propaganda then. I hope the Russians are having their arses kicked but a propaganda video doesn't make it so.
Nice.This week I sent more $$ to Ed Lada who has been organizing relief efforts in Poland. Fellow assholes in PA have raised some thousands to date - every penny going to actual relief there.
Yes, exactly.that seems a big ask, but I guess you are really probing into the future here.
I dont think so.But isn't that just because we can't get the war-criminals?
War crimes are prosecuted. Soldiers testify thereby destroying their careers. Drumpf issued the pardons for political reasons.there is little moral authority to prosecute the russian generals, if we don't police our own bad actors.
just in case people don't understand the significance of this action (surrounding and cutting off an entire russian army to the NW of Kyiv) is "easily the most important military development in the war".from a journalist in Kyiv - as reported this morning:
Depends on how many Russians are in that pocket. I have seen wildly varying stuff, from just a couple weak BTGs to a whole army. We shall see.lol. try significant existential issue.
I saw a segment about a solid effort being led primarily out of LA by an emigrant from UKR, they are using open source information to help guide people, cars and bus drivers to get the people safely to the Polish border, plus coordinating other people to provide help for when they arrive and provisions for the return trips into UKR. The drivers take backroads, some of them pretty rough.
Very few westerners have been held accountable and almost all of them 'grunts', pretty much none of a 'senior' status. Re the UK: The UK has a lamentable record of failing to prosecute war crimes committed by its nationals overseas. There has just been one prosecution of UK forces for war crimes in Iraq and Afghanistan in the last 20 years.The UK has investigated and prosecuted its own soldiers (and convicted them). I agree that some atrocities committed by Western nations have not been prosecuted.
The support that the West is giving Ukraine is a drop in the bucket compared to what modern warfare requires. They are in a position to slow the Russians, but unlikely to be able to defeat them. Right now the UA can't even mass its troops, so bloody quagmire and wholesale destruction of Ukrainian infrastructure and society it will be.Crimea, and the Sevastopol Naval base (home port of the Black Sea fleet), is a very sticky problem. It is Ukrainian (arguably depending on where you go in history) and they have every justification to demand it back. But it is also a core asset of the Russian Navy, has been under russian control since the 1950's, and the Russian military will take an enormous amount of pain before they give it up/back.
Zelenskyy is ofc well aware of this. It is one of the reasons he has floated the referendum concept rather than simply declaring it not on the table. The other reason for the referendum idea is that if the Russians ever manage to install a puppet government he wants to try to block the legitimacy of any grants of territory to russia they might attempt to make by fiat.
Atm both sides seem to believe they can make the other side lose/give up if they simply persevere long enough. Given this neither side is yet prepared to be 'serious' at the negotiating table. Personally I think unfortunately there is alot of death and destruction yet to come. I would love to be proven wrong in this.
If Ukrainian forces manage to get to the verge of decisively defeating the russian forces in the eastern provinces. I suspect Russian would then be ready to come to the table and be willing to give up everything but Crimea. To regain control of Sevastopol I think Ukraine will likely have to take it by force, or at least be in a very strong position to do so.
My thoughts have turned to what broader implications this conflict should have. What implications for policy toward Taiwan? What implications for Western military organization - I think the American generals are fooling themselves if they think they would not suffer a blood bath against an organized insurgency with unlimited AT & AA rockets (edit: & armed drones) and targeting intelligence.? What implications for energy policy (and reliance on ME Oil and the religious civil war there and iran)? What implications for the 'illiberal' states in Nato and the EU (like Hungary and Turkey)?
Sevastopol would be a serious loss for the RU NavyIt would be interesting if Crimea were retaken. Spin that, Putin.
Yes, although I was thinking more about the political/prestige loss. The seizure of Crimea was highly popular in Russia. Anyway, it’s probably a fantasy.Sevastopol would be a serious loss for the RU Navy
Yep, def a sizable pol/pre loss. This fantasy might be coming down to earth, apparently RU naval ships are low on fuel since Turkey cut RU transits to the Black Sea so no topped up refuelers. Probably not a place to be with half the Crimean population undergoing a sense of rising panic.Yes, although I was thinking more about the political/prestige loss. The seizure of Crimea was highly popular in Russia. Anyway, it’s probably a fantasy.