Ukraine

[chesirecat]

"A large landing ship "Orsk" of the Russian Federation is on fire in the port of the temporarily occupied Ukrainian city of Berdyansk. Two more are smoking heavily and trying to escape. The warehouse with ammunition and fuel was destroyed."

 

[dogwatch]

Interesting as Russia was crowing about this earlier in the week.

March 21 (Reuters) – Russia’s armed forces said on Monday they had docked a large, beachable landing support ship, the Orsk, in the occupied Ukrainian port of Berdyansk, 70 km (45 miles) southwest of the besieged Ukrainian port of Mariupol on the Sea of Azov...........

“It is hard to overestimate the possibilities of using this port,” said the website of the Russian armed forces news outlet Zvezda (Star). 

“Now the southern flank of the special operation can receive everything necessary at any time, including equipment and ammunition.”

The Zvezda website said 10 such ships were participating in the operation. It said each could carry up to 20 tanks or 40 armored personnel carriers. 

https://gcaptain.com/russian-landing-ship-docks-ukraine/

 

[dogwatch]

Maybe. Maybe not. You'd be surprised how easy it is to get frostbite. You only need temperatures below 0 at night and it can start.

That is theoretically possible but in practice it is unusual above -15C. Frostbite means ice crystals forming in the skin (in mild cases) and deeper tissue (in more severe cases). Your blood circulation and heat from your body core mitigates against it as well as any clothing covering the skin. I've camped outside in freezing conditions in the UK hills and while it can feel very cold in the early hours, colder than anything I've experienced sailing offshore, frostbite wasn't a conceivable issue. Weather in Ukraine is not severe now, mild frost overnight, spring temperatures in daytime.     

 

[Sailbydate]

These Ukrainians are brave buggers. They actually believe they can beat Russia at its own game.

Set up some 30 kilometres north of Kyiv, the Ukrainian army’s lines of defence have so far succeeded in preventing Russian troops from advancing on the capital. The anti-tank missiles provided by Western allies have handed the Ukrainian soldiers a sense of courage and hope. Embedded with the Ukrainian Army’s 72nd Brigade, FRANCE 24 reports from the frontline.

It is a brave choice that has so far allowed the Ukrainian capital to resist to the best of its ability. The former journalist, who has now changed into khaki-coloured fatigues, ends by citing former Israeli Prime Minister Golda Meir, born in Kyiv in 1898: "We intend to remain alive. Our neighbour wants to see us dead. This is not a question that leaves much room for compromise”.  

The fact that the soldiers have managed to hold the position for three weeks now appears to have boosted troop morale. "We have better tactics and we have allies who provide us with weapons," says the fix-it-all volunteer.

https://www.france24.com/en/europe/20220318-with-state-of-the-art-arms-ukrainian-troops-stall-russian-offensive-on-kyiv

 

[Sailbydate]

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/3/24/analysis-russia-falls-back-on-urban-siege-warfare-in-ukraine

'One month after Russia launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the Russian army has failed to execute a swift takeover of its neighbour and install a pro-Kremlin puppet government in the capital, Kyiv.

Instead, resistance has been fierce from both the regular Ukrainian army and volunteer and reserve forces across most of the country. Meanwhile, attempts to assassinate or kidnap President Volodomyr Zelenskyy and other key leaders at the national and local government levels were foiled by rapid Ukrainian action and poor Russian operational security measures.

As a result of these failures, Russian forces have achieved very limited territorial gains in the north around Kyiv, northeast around Kharkiv and Sumy, and in the southwest around Mykolaiv.'

 

[estarzinger]

so bloody quagmire and wholesale destruction of Ukrainian infrastructure and society it will be.  

agreed, unfortunately.  Although, slightly more positive, I note that one of Zelenskyy more prescient advisors is currently saying that he thinks there will be some sort of 'solution' in the May timeframe. Idk if I believe him this time but he has had greater insight into the situation than many.

The arguments that Russias actions are proportional gets a bit strained.  

agreed, except I would go further and suggest that clearly Russian actions are NOT proportional.  Being diplomatically aggrieved, even with some (questionably arguable) justification, does not give you any justification/proportionality to destroy another country.

Taiwan is a very different case, legally, politically and culturally. 

Agreed. And because island - also much harder to invade.  I would think you could argue, from the Ukrainian experience (factoring in the island's unique circumstances), that their anti-air and anti-ship missile capabilities should be brought up to first class world standards. That would be a significant deterrence to a conventional attack.  In hindsight - I think it could be argued that the west should have rather more aggressively bolstered Ukrainian capability after 2014/2015.

How exactly you would protect Taiwan from a covert 'little green men' invasion (al la Crimea), I'm not sure, but I would certainly be thinking about that if I was them or their pentagon advisors.   This is a harder task than building defensive missile capability.

 

[floater]

the soldiers have managed to hold the position for three weeks now

not true. Ukraine pushing back the Russians. the battle of Kyiv has definitely been swinging blue for the last few days. iow - it's now the Russians on the defensive.

The besieged are becoming the besiegers. Two Russian army's getting hungry and running out of supplies: the one to the NW, and the other to the NE of Kyiv. in reality - if Ukraine can cut them off - they will end up surrendering. 

 

[enigmatically2]

not true. Ukraine pushing back the Russians. the battle of Kyiv has definitely been swinging blue for the last few days. iow - it's now the Russians on the defensive.

The besieged are becoming the besiegers. Two Russian army's getting hungry and running out of supplies: the one to the NW, and the other to the NE of Kyiv. in reality - if Ukraine can cut them off - they will end up surrendering. 

And that could in theory free up Ukranian troops to go elsewhere

Also, Ukraine has said it has enough short range missiles but needs longer range stuff. It appears that as well as 3000 more anti-tank missiles the UK are sending 3000 more longer range devices. Not quite clear which though. I can think of a few things that would help

 

[idontwan2know]

The support that the West is giving Ukraine is a drop in the bucket compared to what modern warfare requires. They are in a position to slow the Russians, but unlikely to be able to defeat them.  Right now the UA can't even mass its troops, so bloody quagmire and wholesale destruction of Ukrainian infrastructure and society it will be.  

It's hard to argue that the act of killing is a moral one and trying to regulate and legislate war is a fraught exercise, but there is the concept of proportionality.  The arguments that Russias actions are proportional gets a bit strained.  

Taiwan is a very different case, legally, politically and culturally. The Chinese are more capable than the Russians both militarily and economically.  The Taiwanese have built of one of the most progressive and liberal societies on earth, peacefully, out of a country (in everything but name) that was under martial law in the early 90's. The KMT emigrants that came after the war with strong ties to China are almost gone.  Militarily Taiwan is much smaller and weaker than Ukraine.  While Ukraine shows that adventurism/irredentist actions potentially can be more costly and risky than anticipated, you are dealing with very hardline views from the Chinese side that will view as the price extracted by the West as acceptable.  No Chinese government has forgotten what happens when you give away territory and the current government is intent on fulfilling the furthest extent of the Qing dynasty. You could almost say that Putin may have gotten some ideas from this. 

While in the grand sense, Taiwan may be weaker than Ukraine, I think you're overselling the comparison. Russia didn't have to cross a heavily disputed strait and conduct amphibious landings to get to Ukraine. Taking Taiwan would not be easy or without significant cost for China.

 

[Elegua]

Is this the one that predicted the war in 2019(?) and said that the years 2020-2022 were the most critical? I'm in China right now and my normally reliable VPN is not working well. 

Agreed. And because island - also much harder to invade.  I would think you could argue, from the Ukrainian experience (factoring in the island's unique circumstances), that their anti-air and anti-ship missile capabilities should be brought up to first class world standards. That would be a significant deterrence to a conventional attack.  In hindsight - I think it could be argued that the west should have rather more aggressively bolstered Ukrainian capability after 2014/2015.

How exactly you would protect Taiwan from a covert 'little green men' invasion (al la Crimea), I'm not sure, but I would certainly be thinking about that if I was them or their pentagon advisors.   This is a harder task than building defensive missile capability.

Because of the fierce interference from China, few countries support Taiwanese military capabilities. The US does some training for equipment sold to them, but I think people over estimate how well it's integrated or used.   Some of the senior military staff are openly Chinese sympathizers.  I do know some younger folks in the professional military, and they are smart and hard working, and like most young people there, clearly not interested in becoming a part of the other China in any way. They mostly feel neglected and misunderstood by the rest of he world.  I'd like to see Taiwan anti-ship and anti-air brought to first class as well, but I'm not holding my breath.  One of the worlds best democracies and their basic right of self-determination is being neglected to maintain relations with China, despite the outsized role Taiwan plays in the world economy.  Perhaps Ukraine will re-kindle attention to this matter? 

I was in Germany in 2014 when Crimea was taken over and I was a bit taken back at the attitude that Crimea was Russia's anyway, no big deal if they take it back. But then again, I was generally shocked at some of the German business practices in Russia. 

Little green men is harder because it's an island. The used to have all beaches surveilled and patrolled, but no longer. They took the peace dividend possibly too seriously. The mainland Chinese would need to do some linguistic training, otherwise it'd be as unobvious as Scotsman trying to take over London.  My personal feeling is they would plan to bombard the island into submission with missiles and attempt a decapitation of the government.  Taiwan is very rough terrain. If we had tried to take it from the Japanese in WW2 it would have been the bloodiest battle out there.  The US plan was to invade on the beaches south of KaoHsiung and move up the island along the west coast. A steep east coast and a very shallow west coast might make someone do the same. 

 

[Elegua]

While in the grand sense, Taiwan may be weaker than Ukraine, I think you're overselling the comparison. Russia didn't have to cross a heavily disputed strait and conduct amphibious landings to get to Ukraine. Taking Taiwan would not be easy or without significant cost for China.

Actually I'm arguing there is little comparison.  See my other post.  It's be much harder to hurt the Chinese economically the same way as Russia.  Most of the China sincerely believes that Taiwan should be brought back into the fold regardless of the cost. Try the "Taiwan is a country" argument on what seems to be normally rational PRC citizen and they start to foam at the mouth. If you add up the civilian shipping, the modern navy that has more ships than the US's, with modernized land-based missiles and upgraded fighters with possibly stand-off capability, it might be enough to keep the US far away enough for long enough for them to have their way with Taiwan. China is already doing a good job of wearing down Taiwan's old fighter force ( and Japan's).  It's very hard for Taiwan to get replacements. 

Thirty years ago we used to say China will have the capability in thirty years. Well, thirty years is now.... I like Taiwan, so I am very happy to be proven wrong. 

Taiwan needs more support and integration with other countries and a significant build up.  Possibly they bought into the post-war peace dividend too much. Possibly they believed the US would keep them out of trouble too much. It can't just be the US. It has to be a wider effort. 

How serious is the world about protecting liberal democracies? It seems to me, not much.  

 

[enigmatically2]

 China is already doing a good job of wearing down Taiwan's old fighter force ( and Japan's).  It's very hard for Taiwan to get replacements. 

US is in the process of building up Taiwan's force to include approx 200 F-16s.

https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/exclusive-us-seeks-way-speed-delivery-new-fighter-jets-taiwan-2022-01-20/

The west (mainly US) has supplied a lot of other technology. 

Do not underestimate the difficulties of a contested amphibious landing. In 1944 the allies had total air and sea domination, Germany was engaged on 2 other fronts, the Allies had a massive materiel superiority and it was still marginal. 

In 1982 the UK had total command of the sea but not the air and nearly lost despite many advantages.

I have no doubt that China would succeed eventually, but it would be very costly.

 

[Elegua]

US is in the process of building up Taiwan's force to include approx 200 F-16s.

https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/exclusive-us-seeks-way-speed-delivery-new-fighter-jets-taiwan-2022-01-20/

The west (mainly US) has supplied a lot of other technology. 

Do not underestimate the difficulties of a contested amphibious landing. In 1944 the allies had total air and sea domination, Germany was engaged on 2 other fronts, the Allies had a massive materiel superiority and it was still marginal. 

In 1982 the UK had total command of the sea but not the air and nearly lost despite many advantages.

I have no doubt that China would succeed eventually, but it would be very costly.

I think China would take that trade. 

F-16s are going to struggle agains the Chinese air force. It's a very short flight across the straits and Taiwan already sits partially under China's SAM umbrella.   

The rest of the world needs to show exactly how expensive irredentist adventurism is in Ukraine and someone, other than just the US and maybe Estonia, needs to support Taiwan.   

 

[estarzinger]

Is this the one that predicted the war in 2019(?) and said that the years 2020-2022 were the most critical?

yes, exactly.

 

[slug zitski]

Very few westerners have been held accountable and almost all of them 'grunts', pretty much none of a 'senior' status.  Re the UK: The UK has a lamentable record of failing to prosecute war crimes committed by its nationals overseas. There has just been one prosecution of UK forces for war crimes in Iraq and Afghanistan in the last 20 years.

But that was a secondary point. My main interest here is the relevance of the current 'war crimes' structure to modern warfare. IDK, I have just wondered if they need to be rethought or updated.   By observation - It seems difficult to fight an urban insurgency without blowing up lots of civilian buildings (and that includes places of worship and medical services), and lots of claims of 'war crimes', even when your military generally has a law abiding culture and process.  There is 'supposed to be' some proportionate calculations about these sorts of attacks, but again by observations, that does not seem a very practical rule in the heat of urban combat - do you drop a 500lb bomb on that apartment block or that mosque that seems to have RPG's coming from that corner room or not?  I am not a fan of rule of law where the law is routinely skirted and only used against the loser and the less powerful.

On the other hand, a lot of the war crime's committed seem very avoidable and are still certainly valid practical law - so clearly it does not all need to be thrown out.  I would really like to see the torture group actually held accountable, and similar for the special forces who kill civilians and pows indiscriminately. And yes, whatever russian ordered that strike on the shelter with 'children' written in big letters on both sides.

But i sense there is a problem, too many claims of relatively routine war crimes (by essentially all the players, even the presumptive 'good guys') and too few (especially at sr levels) held accountable.  Again, IDK, thorny issue.

War crimes are a modern tool used by militaries

station your missiles  around a hospital , school …and when the other side attacks them …civilian casualties…war crimes…

or fire a missile  into a hospital , then blame the other side

 

[Israel Hands]

The rest of the world needs to show exactly how expensive irredentist adventurism is in Ukraine and someone, other than just the US and maybe Estonia, needs to support Taiwan.   

And at the same time, shouldn't the US be strategically developing other supply lines to replace Taiwan's computer chips, metals, etc? 

 

[Rennmaus]

And at the same time, shouldn't the US be strategically developing other supply lines to replace Taiwan's  China's computer chips, metals, etc? 

FIFY

 

[Israel Hands]

FIFY

Well, both. But we have viewed Taiwan as a strategic supplier of those items if shit hits the fan. We should be moving as swiftly as possible to source more of them from less volatile places.

Special thanks to Sam Walton, for building the 1890's-style manufacturing portal to China. He really helped China become a global brown cloud polluter and sweat shop, which eventually increased its wealth and tipped the balance of power away from the US.  Real progress!  And he used that trick that so many politicians use today, of labeling something the opposite of what it actually is.  His humbug phrase was Buy American.

 

[dogwatch]

This thread is "Ukraine". Not "Taiwan".   Not "Walmarts". I'm sure there are lovely threads elsewhere to talk about such things.

 

[Rennmaus]

This thread is "Ukraine". Not "Taiwan".   Not "Walmarts". I'm sure there are lovely threads elsewhere to talk about such things.

And this is a sailing forum, so what?