Ukraine

[dogwatch]

Cheerless reading.

One evening in late December, as Muscovites strolled along their city’s brightly lit streets in anticipation of the end-of-year celebrations, a group of old friends gathered for dinner at the flat of a senior state official.

Some of the guests present, which included members of Russia’s cultural and political elite, toasted a new year in which they expressed hope for peace and a return to normality.

As the night went on, a man who needed little introduction stood up for a toast, holding his glass.
“I am guessing you are expecting me to say something,” said Dmitry Peskov, Vladimir Putin’s longtime spokesperson, according to one of the two people who separately recounted the evening to the Guardian under conditions of anonymity.

“Things will get much harder. This will take a very, very long time,” Peskov continued.

More

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...ever-war-with-west-as-ukraine-invasion-stalls

 

[dogwatch]

Or warm yourself on this one.

Since February 24th 2022 there have been at least 93 documented, war-related arson-attacks in Russia. They have taken place right across the country, from Krasnodar to Krasnoyarsk, from Buryatia to Bashkortostan, from Rostov to Chelyabinsk. There is a similar spread regarding the age of the culprits. In Leningrad region one (failed) attack was carried out in late February this year by a 16-year high school student, while in Podolsk, Moscow Region, two pensioners in their 70s have been arrested.

https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/who-is-torching-russias-military-recruitment-centres/

 

[dogwatch]

And the last from me for now:

If I were to have to pick the figure in Vladimir Putin’s inner circle who scares me the most, it would have to be Nikolai Platonovich Patrushev, secretary of the Security Council and the closest thing there is in the Russian system to a national security adviser. Patrushev’s profile has grown steadily as both cause and symptom of the system’s drift towards nationalist imperialism, and he best channels the worst impulses within the id of Putin’s clique. Whenever he speaks, it is sadly worth listening.

https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/nikolai-patrushev-the-man-dripping-poison-into-putins-ear/

 

[enigmatically2]

What should/will the west do when indicted war criminal Putin and his banana dictatorship take over the UNSC security council presidency?

 

[Sailbydate]

Ukraine updates: Bakhmut battle 'badly damaged' Wagner group – DW – 03/29/2023

The leader of the Wagner mercenary group says his forces have suffered heavy losses in Bakhmut. Meanwhile, Ukrainian President Zelenskyy extended an invitation to Russian ally Xi Jinping to visit Kyiv. DW has the latest.

www.dw.com

 

[Monkey]

What should/will the west do when indicted war criminal Putin and his banana dictatorship take over the UNSC security council presidency?

Invite him to attend in person…

 

[Mark_K]

What should/will the west do when indicted war criminal Putin and his banana dictatorship take over the UNSC security council presidency?

Ignore it.

 

[dogwatch]

Long "state of the war" piece by Lawrence Freedman. Summary, RUS cannot advance, cannot concede. I guess we already knew that but still.

https://www.newstatesman.com/world/europe/ukraine/2023/03/meaning-battle-bakhmut-lawrence-freedman

 

[enigmatically2]

Russians are worried about what is coming. Even the HIMARS they have destroyed 3x over

 

[LeoV]

Freedman article;
Micawberish
Irresponsibly optimistic: A person who idles and trusts to fortune.
Someone described as being micawberish is simply someone who resembles the character Wilkins Micawber in Dickens’s novel David Copperfield.

Freedman says Russian economy is doing well, some disagree.
He does not talk about troop morale.
Both are intertwined. Seeing old crappy tanks showing up and knowing Ukr get modern stuff from allies...

 

[enigmatically2]

 

[Steam Flyer]

Freedman article;
Micawberish
Irresponsibly optimistic: A person who idles and trusts to fortune.
Someone described as being micawberish is simply someone who resembles the character Wilkins Micawber in Dickens’s novel David Copperfield.

Freedman says Russian economy is doing well, some disagree.
He does not talk about troop morale.
Both are intertwined. Seeing old crappy tanks showing up and knowing Ukr get modern stuff from allies...

I can easily see Russian generals sitting around a table, saying things like, "Yes the T-34 is totally incapable of sustaining combat operations, but if we send 10,000 we can once again prove quantity is it's own quality."

I can also easily see the Russian soldiers far far less appreciative of this attitude. I keep waiting for the Russian front to just collapse.

 

[The_Alchemist]

Russians are worried about what is coming. Even the HIMARS they have destroyed 3x over

He is the military expert and not just one of the talking heads that keep thumping their chest.

 

[enigmatically2]

I keep waiting for the Russian front to just collapse.

Me too. Not yet, but I hope and believe one day it will. There will come a tipping point as there generally is in these wars. With NATO supplying RU and UKr morale bolstered by defending their own land I am sure it will be RU that collapses.

Could it be the use of western armour in April/may offensives? Dont know but I hope it is sooner rather than later

 

[Crooked Beat]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...rpreter-of-our-dark-times-putin-trump-ukraine

 

[enigmatically2]

Putin has signed the next conscription order: 147k as opposed to the average of 130k. He's obviously afraid of unrest, or realises they have no more equipment.
Or both

 

[jaysper]

Long "state of the war" piece by Lawrence Freedman. Summary, RUS cannot advance, cannot concede. I guess we already knew that but still.

https://www.newstatesman.com/world/europe/ukraine/2023/03/meaning-battle-bakhmut-lawrence-freedman

I think that the Ukrainians taking back all territory taken since 22 Feb last year is highly likely.
However, with regards to the Crimean peninsula, this is a whole other ball game.
It is an easily defensible position, especially when your enemy cannot mount a amphibious assault nor achieve anything close of air superiority.
All the Russians need to do is mine the shit out of the 3km pinch point into the peninsula and then place troops to guard it.
Yes the Ukrainians will presumably be able to cut water supplies to Crimea back off and this may cause much of the civilian population suffer (or perhaps even flee), but it wouldn't do anything to force out the Russian military.
If Russia loses Crimea, it is HIGHLY likely that Putin will end up being defenestrated, so this is a life and death situation for him. Therefore, Ukraine will most likely have to destroy all the military units in Crimea to take it back.
Is it worth it? Probably not, but the mood of the Ukrainian population appears as if nothing else would be acceptable.

 

[Sailbydate]

I think that the Ukrainians taking back all territory taken since 22 Feb last year is highly likely.
However, with regards to the Crimean peninsula, this is a whole other ball game.
It is an easily defensible position, especially when your enemy cannot mount a amphibious assault nor achieve anything close of air superiority.
All the Russians need to do is mine the shit out of the 3km pinch point into the peninsula and then place troops to guard it.
Yes the Ukrainians will presumably be able to cut water supplies to Crimea back off and this may cause much of the civilian population suffer (or perhaps even flee), but it wouldn't do anything to force out the Russian military.
If Russia loses Crimea, it is HIGHLY likely that Putin will end up being defenestrated, so this is a life and death situation for him. Therefore, Ukraine will most likely have to destroy all the military units in Crimea to take it back.
Is it worth it? Probably not, but the mood of the Ukrainian population appears as if nothing else would be acceptable.

When, Putin has nothing more to lose, will he reach for the red button?

 

[jaysper]

When, Putin has nothing more to lose, will he reach for the red button?

I believe that would be where defenestration would come into play.

 

[The_Alchemist]

When, Putin has nothing more to lose, will he reach for the red button?

I do not think that will ever happen. Even in Russia, there is a chain of command that has to follow out such an order and all of them know it will be the last breath they take.