Ukraine

[Mark_K]

I do not think that will ever happen. Even in Russia, there is a chain of command that has to follow out such an order and all of them know it will be the last breath they take.

Depends on what they think about it, which may not be what we think they should think about it.

As a thought experiment, imagine the US had fallen apart and in the process Texas became its own nation. In the process of attempting to aggressively re-build the US "empire", Russia (imagine the Soviets had won the Cold War here) armed the Texans with all kinds of high tech stuff to defend itself....and the Texans were about to massacre a large US force.

If a US POTUS were to say at that time: "Back the fuck off Russia, or I will use tactical nukes!", would it be wise for the Russians to assume with utter confidence that he's bluffing and'or US generals would surely not obey him?

As Michael Koffman put it a couple week ago: "Look deep into the beady eyes of General Gerasimov for a few moments and see if you can see anything in them that leads you to believe he's too principled to obey that order."

 

[jaysper]

I do not think that will ever happen. Even in Russia, there is a chain of command that has to follow out such an order and all of them know it will be the last breath they take.

Yeah, that too.
But I do think if he attempted to pull this shit, it would be to the window with Putin.

 

[jaysper]

Me too. Not yet, but I hope and believe one day it will. There will come a tipping point as there generally is in these wars. With NATO supplying RU and UKr morale bolstered by defending their own land I am sure it will be RU that collapses.

Could it be the use of western armour in April/may offensives? Dont know but I hope it is sooner rather than later

In some ways, Ukraine needs to drag out the war.
If you look at Bahkmut, the major benefit the Ukrainians have derived is the asymmetric level of attrition.
Russia has effectively performed a rope-a-dope (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Rumble_in_the_Jungle) on themselves and Ukraine needs to play for time until the 7th round of the war, at which time they can come out and lay Russia on the canvas.

 

[Sailbydate]

Depends on what they think about it, which may not be what we think they should think about it.

As a thought experiment, imagine the US had fallen apart and in the process Texas became its own nation. In the process of attempting to aggressively re-build the US "empire", Russia (imagine the Soviets had won the Cold War here) armed the Texans with all kinds of high tech stuff to defend itself....and the Texans were about to massacre a large US force.

If a US POTUS were to say at that time: "Back the fuck off Russia, or I will use tactical nukes!", would it be wise for the Russians to assume with utter confidence that he's bluffing and'or US generals would surely not obey him?

As Michael Koffman put it a couple week ago: "Look deep into the beady eyes of General Gerasimov for a few moments and see if you can see anything in them that leads you to believe he's too principled to obey that order."

Hasn't this happened before? Same problem, different states? About 1776?

 

[Horn Rock]

if we send 10,000 we can once again prove quantity is it's own quality."

They've got more old tanks than drivers. Ukraine captured a medic driving a tank the other day. It's like you or me getting recruited as tank drivers and pointed towards the front and told to go get em! It's not going to end well....

 

[Sailbydate]

They've got more old tanks than drivers. Ukraine captured a medic driving a tank the other day. It's like you or me getting recruited as tank drivers and pointed towards the front and told to go get em! It's not going to end well....

On the plus side, that tank driver would have been able to attend to his own bullet wounds - unless they were fatal.

 

[Mark_K]

Hasn't this happened before? Same problem, different states? About 1776?

Albert Einstein was but a gleam in his great great great grandpappy's eye then.

 

[Sailbydate]

Albert Einstein was but a gleam in is great great great grandpappy's eye then.

Prolly. I was thinking more, King George 111 and England.

 

[Mark_K]

Prolly. I was thinking more, King George 111 and England.

We've been talkin' about nukes.

 

[Steam Flyer]

I do not think that will ever happen. Even in Russia, there is a chain of command that has to follow out such an order and all of them know it will be the last breath they take.

Yeah, that too.
But I do think if he attempted to pull this shit, it would be to the window with Putin.

But do you know for sure, that enough Russian in the chain of command think the same way you and I do?

It's a bad risk. One cannot simply be cowed by crazed threats. But it's still poking the bear when we're in the cage with him.

IMHO two things need to happen: 1- a very clear path to de-escalating and withdrawing from the war and 2- the consequences of escalating, communicated to the Russians in a way that is understandable in Russian culture, and that the aftermath will be far more horrible than anything Putin can inflict.

The problem with #2 is the Russians are very very good at suffering. It almost seems like they have a mystical love for it. Perhaps the messaging should work the angle that if they push the big red button, then everything goes kaboom and they and their descendants don't get to enjoy centuries of agonizing poverty & cold & oppression like their glorious ancestors did.

 

[Horn Rock]

But it's still poking the bear when we're in the cage with him.

Provocation is a two way street. The Russians have been informed that any serious strategic nuke prep - fueling of ICBMs will trigger a US first strike. That gives them pause for thought. Will they have enough left to hit back? The ongoing scenarios get increasingly grim.

 

[Sailbydate]

We've been talkin' about nukes.

I've been talking about a person's proclivities - which may or may not involve nukes. Also about another unfortunate colonist, who lost the lot.

 

[jaysper]

But do you know for sure, that enough Russian in the chain of command think the same way you and I do?

It's a bad risk. One cannot simply be cowed by crazed threats. But it's still poking the bear when we're in the cage with him.

IMHO two things need to happen: 1- a very clear path to de-escalating and withdrawing from the war and 2- the consequences of escalating, communicated to the Russians in a way that is understandable in Russian culture, and that the aftermath will be far more horrible than anything Putin can inflict.

The problem with #2 is the Russians are very very good at suffering. It almost seems like they have a mystical love for it. Perhaps the messaging should work the angle that if they push the big red button, then everything goes kaboom and they and their descendants don't get to enjoy centuries of agonizing poverty & cold & oppression like their glorious ancestors did.

Yes, Russians have a proud history of suffering.
They also have a proud history of deposing and killing leaders who have outlived their useful lives.
Russia is not like North Korea where the Kims are true, good ole fashioned dictators that are able to freely kill anyone who poses a threat to them.
Putin's hold on power is far more tenuous and there are people who could depose him if he fucks things up badly enough.
That's the good news. The bad news is that they are more fanatical than Putin.

 

[enigmatically2]

 

[Mark_K]

I've been talking about a person's proclivities - which may or may not involve nukes. Also about another unfortunate colonist, who lost the lot.

The Russians do not view Ukraine as a colony they view it as something much closer to a breakaway state. A closer analogy in US history would be the civil war.

 

[Sailbydate]

The Russians do not view Ukraine as a colony they view it as something much closer to a breakaway state. A closer analogy in US history would be the civil war.

In their minds, undoubtedly. But that would be a very freakish place to dwell.

 

[Mark_K]

In their minds, undoubtedly. But that would be a very freakish place to dwell.

For most westerners they are easier to understand than the Jihadis we've been fighting. Much more like us.

 

[barfy]

The Russians do not view Ukraine as a colony they view it as something much closer to a breakaway state. A closer analogy in US history would be the civil war.

Maybe a closer analogy for US history would be Canada. In their hearts every Canadian is a closet yank, they even speak American!
😜

 

[Mark_K]

Maybe a closer analogy for US history would be Canada. In their hearts every Canadian is a closet yank, they even speak American!
😜

Assuming they keep exporting that maple syrup they're safe.

 

[chesirecat]

They've got more old tanks than drivers. Ukraine captured a medic driving a tank the other day. It's like you or me getting recruited as tank drivers and pointed towards the front and told to go get em! It's not going to end well....

There are accounts of recruits for the artillery arriving on the front, who have been given rifles and sent into the meat grinder with 11% of survival.