Ukraine

[jaysper]

War is often a disastrous failure of leadership, who should have agreed long-term plans instead.

And speaking of that, it would be good if a bunch of 'leaders' began looking at what RU might look like after the UKR war. They did this ahead of time for both Japan and Germany and both worked out, over the long run.

I'm assuming you mean in the worst case (depending on your PoV) scenario where Russia breaks into pieces like the USSR did?
I suspect the only thought they will have put into this will be how to secure the nukes (or more likely how to help the Russians secure them) from terrorists etc.
Anything beyond that, such as the Marshall plan, only really works when you:

• Have secured unconditional surrender from the other side, and
• There remains a coherent government (which there may not be if it all goes pear shaped).

 

[dogwatch]

For me:
-hitting Russian military targets inside Russia is all good
-hitting relevant industrial targets is fine if some care is taken to minimize civilian loss (like hitting them at night)
-I do not support hitting apartment blocks or bombing coffee shops

So, I think these drones could have been better used against different targets.

I do not think 'bringing the war to the Russian people' is at all likely to result in a coup (against putin), but rather will probably strengthen his hand. The fact that Russia is hitting civilian targets in Ukraine does not make 'an eye for an eye' right.

Agreed. I don't think intentional targeting of UKR civilians by RUS makes it OK to retaliate in kind. Nor do I think that doing so is going to turn the Russian population against Putin, rather the reverse.

 

[dogwatch]

so probably Pootin organized them?

Organised drone attacks on Moscow apartments? It's a distinct possibility. There's smoking gun evidence linking the FSB to attacks on Moscow apartments in 1999, apparently to mobilise public opinion behind Putin's escalation of the war in Chechnya.

 

[Steam Flyer]

I'm assuming you mean in the worst case (depending on your PoV) scenario where Russia breaks into pieces like the USSR did?
I suspect the only thought they will have put into this will be how to secure the nukes (or more likely how to help the Russians secure them) from terrorists etc.
Anything beyond that, such as the Marshall plan, only really works when you:

• Have secured unconditional surrender from the other side, and
• There remains a coherent government (which there may not be if it all goes pear shaped).

There are almost certainly a whole range of plans being developed, or far along in development, for "what happens after." These would be based on State Dept assessment of conditions and probable happenings, with input from a wide range of academic experts as well.

The goal will have to be to secure Russia's nukes but also stabilize the political situation and prevent civil catastrophes; right now I think the reasonable assumption is that Russia's gov't is not going to collapse and is not going acknowledge defeat and withdraw.

 

[estarzinger]

map of drone stikes on moscow - pink where drones (have been reported as) exploded, purple where UAV hit or crashed into something. As someone noted above, there was a huge disturbance of GPS service across a wide area (all the way to the baltic states)

Personally, I would rather strongly guess this was a Ukr covert action and not a Russian false flag, but like a lot of such actions, we will probably never know for sure. Why - because the Russians are downplaying it rather than making hay about it, and Russian false flag would probably been less wide spread and more destructive in (few) locations (better PR profile that way), and the UAV's seem to be of definite Ukr origen with no exports (of course, Russia could have gotten their hands on a few, but there seem to have been quite a few UAV's in action, more than the Russians are reporting), and we 'know' (from western intelligence listening ops, and a few public statements) that Ukr government has been very interested in bringing the way to Russia in exactly this way. OFC none of that is definitive.

 

[Stingray~]

Heard on radio a Russian oil refinery is now on fire, somewhere?

 

[Stingray~]

Heard on radio a Russian oil refinery is now on fire, somewhere?

Krasnodar

 

[mathystuff]

Absolutely insane mass delusions.

 

[enigmatically2]

Clearly I don't know what the Ukrainians were aiming for. They could have been aiming for legitimate military targets and been knocked off course by spoofing. The fact that they hit a rich area may suggest another motive, but that's getting cynical. We'll probably never know.

Nevertheless, it may have positive effects. It may cause more panic (already seems to); more emigration; flight of capital and will almost certainly result in more AAW systems being moved to Moscow.

It may cause more influential people to realise Putin must go. I agree that the average muscovites might get more entrenched though

 

[dogwatch]

Krasnodar

Very roughly 100 miles east of the Kerch bridge i.e. well inside "mainland" RUS.

 

[Stingray~]

Very roughly 100 miles east of the Kerch bridge i.e. well inside "mainland" RUS.

Yes, and it supplies port N that among other things runs oil supplies through the Black Sea including to Savastapol. Perfect kind of target, imo.

 

[Ex Machina]

Yes, and it supplies port N that among other things runs oil supplies through the Black Sea including to Savastapol. Perfect kind of target, imo.

View attachment 594529

Kidney punches

 

[LeoV]

Clearly I don't know what the Ukrainians were aiming for.

So many targets there. Putin will not sleep there anymore I reckon.

Wikipedia;
Novo-Ogaryovo (Russian: Ново-Огарёво), also transliterated as Novo-Ogarevo, is an estate in the Odintsovsky District of Moscow Oblast, located by the Rublyovo-Uspenskoye Highway west of the city of Moscow. It operates as the suburban residence of the President of Russia, officially recognized as such in 2000, although, throughout President Vladimir Putin's second tenure, he has spent progressively more time at Novo-Ogaryovo, so much so that it has been unofficially termed the de facto residence of the head of state.[1]

 

[Ex Machina]

So many targets there. Putin will not sleep there anymore I reckon.

Wikipedia;
Novo-Ogaryovo (Russian: Ново-Огарёво), also transliterated as Novo-Ogarevo, is an estate in the Odintsovsky District of Moscow Oblast, located by the Rublyovo-Uspenskoye Highway west of the city of Moscow. It operates as the suburban residence of the President of Russia, officially recognized as such in 2000, although, throughout President Vladimir Putin's second tenure, he has spent progressively more time at Novo-Ogaryovo, so much so that it has been unofficially termed the de facto residence of the head of state.[1]

Does he even sleep ? He must have a brain tumour by now from all the INT gear trained in his direction . It must take a toll on him knowing that worlds best gear is tracking his every move

 

[Stingray~]

Does he even sleep ? He must have a brain tumour by now from all the INT gear trained in his direction . It must take a toll on him knowing that worlds best gear is tracking his every move

For all we know, he lives as well or better than anyone else on the planet.

Kremlinology is one heck of a subject...

 

[Ex Machina]

For all we know, he lives as well or better than anyone else on the planet.

Kremlinology is one heck of a subject...

Materially yes , Mentally ?

 

[Mark_K]

Clearly I don't know what the Ukrainians were aiming for. They could have been aiming for legitimate military targets and been knocked off course by spoofing. The fact that they hit a rich area may suggest another motive, but that's getting cynical. We'll probably never know.

Nevertheless, it may have positive effects. It may cause more panic (already seems to); more emigration; flight of capital and will almost certainly result in more AAW systems being moved to Moscow.

It may cause more influential people to realise Putin must go. I agree that the average muscovites might get more entrenched though

It can also be battlefield shaping for the summer campaigns. The Ukrainians are being encouraged to deploy AA assets near Kyiv and other places far from the fronts, and the Russians are being similarly encouraged.

 

[Stingray~]

The subject of drone warfare seems to be increasingly important. I fly a toy version, although I have seen the exact same model in some of the frontline vids. Anyway..

Has there been much discussion maybe in the PA thread on UKR, about how each side is able to jam them, what the tech leap-frogging may be, etc? I can set what are called Way Points and then make it auto-fly the route but it does rely on maintaining the GPS sat signals.

 

[Elegua]

Ukr drone attacks have had some payoff. VKS can no longer use the Engels airbase and airbases that can support the tupolev’s a few + longer flights, more wear and tear on old assets and more predicable angles of attack.

Also, forcing Russia to keep AA systems up and running to prevent attacks while keeping such systems alive is a big hassle.

 

[barfy]