Ukraine

[estarzinger]

It’s hard to imagine Ukr as a full functioning sovereign state without Crimea. It’s be a source of friction and a permanent threat to Ukr.

as I said, depending on the scenario, could be an extremely tough choice - 20 years of war like this is very unattractive in the extreme.

I don't find it that hard to imagine a scenario - demilitarized Crimea as essentially a semi-independent federal state, with article 5 protection for Ukrane. It is most definitely not ideal, but it is not an ideal world.

It would be pleasant if the situation on the ground did not force them to make tough compromises, and if they are, any such decision/compromise will I hope be Ukr's to make on their own, without external pressure.

 

[Stingray~]

I hope they negotiate a peace where E UKR and Crimea are both DMZs.

And with a great deal of local, democratic autonomy under those conditions. Maybe even give them each 'nation' status.

 

[Ishmael]

Western media lies about the war. Russia is protecting themselves from the existential threat of being invaded by the West. Ukraine was to remain neutral. Instead USA built up Ukraine's military and had weapons labs near the Russian border.
The Banderites of Ukraine are the remains of the nazis, and the stated mission is to de-nazify Ukraine.
This interview with Scott Ritter shows an accurate account of this debacle. Ritter is the retired weapons inspector that got in trouble for reporting that there were no weapons of mass destruction in Iraq which opposed the media's official story. He just returned from a month long book tour in Russia.
i hope Ukraine becomes a neutral zone soon so we can go back to being friend with Russia.

Bullshit.

 

[Elegua]

as I said, depending on the scenario, could be an extremely tough choice - 20 years of war like this is very unattractive in the extreme.

I don't find it that hard to imagine a scenario - demilitarized Crimea as essentially a semi-independent federal state, with article 5 protection for Ukrane. It is most definitely not ideal, but it is not an ideal world.

It would be pleasant if the situation on the ground did not force them to make tough compromises, and if they are, any such decision/compromise will I hope be Ukr's to make on their own, without external pressure.

That’s a scenario I didn’t think of. It’s sensible. Perhaps too sensible to implement for belligerents that feel they have paid a high enough price already. People have to recognize they are beaten to accede.

Now that we’ve gone to hell with incrementalism / penny ante-ism, I figure somebody is going to escalate as soon as it becomes clear they might face a clear defeat even if it is not a decisive one. I wonder if the Free Russia folks have indicated a greater weakness than expected? I look at how Ukr have handled the weapons they have been given - like how they moved a small part of their patriot battery to the front and inflicted significant pain - and I wonder if they could pull it off. I’m probably being too optimistic.

 

[Elegua]

I hope they negotiate a peace where E UKR and Crimea are both DMZs.

And with a great deal of local, democratic autonomy under those conditions. Maybe even give them each 'nation' status.

If you’ve ever visited a “DMZ” like in Korea, you realize it’s just temporary stasis and not entirely stable.

 

[Kiwing]

Ukraine has to be able to join NATO. Otherwise Russia will invade again.

 

[enigmatically2]

I see we have a new Russian shill.

Some facts
1) Did every region of Ukraine (including Donbas and Crimea) vote to be part of Ukraine in a vote recognised as free and fair by international advisers- YES
2) Were the borders of Ukraine (including Donbas and Crimea) recognised internationally, including by Russia as a signatory to a treaty as condition of Ukraine giving up nuclear weapons? YES
3) was Russian spoken freely as a language (including by the president as a natural Russian speaker) and not persecuted prior to the illegal invasion? YES
4) Are the nazis the ones trying to eliminate a nation, language and culture, whilst abducting and brainwashing children. IE the Russians. YES

So therefore is the correct legal and more and moral response to ensure that Russian invaders are evicted from every part of Ukraine (including Donbas and Crimea)? YES

So should Putin and Russia fuck off? YES

 

[Keith]

Western media lies about the war. Russia is protecting themselves from the existential threat of being invaded by the West. Ukraine was to remain neutral. Instead USA built up Ukraine's military and had weapons labs near the Russian border.

you forgot to use the purple font..

 

[Mark_K]

That’s a scenario I didn’t think of. It’s sensible. Perhaps too sensible to implement for belligerents that feel they have paid a high enough price already. People have to recognize they are beaten to accede.

Now that we’ve gone to hell with incrementalism / penny ante-ism, I figure somebody is going to escalate as soon as it becomes clear they might face a clear defeat even if it is not a decisive one. I wonder if the Free Russia folks have indicated a greater weakness than expected? I look at how Ukr have handled the weapons they have been given - like how they moved a small part of their patriot battery to the front and inflicted significant pain - and I wonder if they could pull it off. I’m probably being too optimistic.

Dervish posted an excellent deep dive into the incrementalism in the other thread, it's probably correct. Near the end he delves into the end-games and the reasons why a quick trip up the escalation ladder is not assured, probably unlikely as long as the Russians do not begin to view it as an existential threat to their state, which is unlikely as long as ground forces are all in Ukraine.

 

[The_Alchemist]

That's nice but Canada is not Ukraine. There are many objective accounts of Russian culture and language being unapologetically suppressed in western Ukraine. In the circumstances it is understandable but there is little reason to believe that if Donbas and Crimea are recovered by Ukraine, Russian speakers will find themselves in a comfortable situation.

Today’s Ukraine is not the same as the old Ukraine. Obviously, there will be some resentment against Russian sympathizers because of what Russia has done to their country. But with the expectations of joining the EU and NATO, these sort of actions will be under greater scrutiny.

 

[phill_nz]

Western media lies about the war. Russia is protecting themselves from the existential threat of being invaded by the West. Ukraine was to remain neutral. Instead USA built up Ukraine's military and had weapons labs near the Russian border.
The Banderites of Ukraine are the remains of the nazis, and the stated mission is to de-nazify Ukraine.
This interview with Scott Ritter shows an accurate account of this debacle. Ritter is the retired weapons inspector that got in trouble for reporting that there were no weapons of mass destruction in Iraq which opposed the media's official story. He just returned from a month long book tour in Russia.
i hope Ukraine becomes a neutral zone soon so we can go back to being friend with Russia.

ohhh cute
did our toilet cleaner come back ??

 

[Kiwing]

escalation the theory of?



The future does not look good for Pootin and his empty hand.

 

[barfy]

Interesting news across multiple fronts, military and political.
It seems that the AFU is conducting trolling attacks as much as shaping attacks. Both in good order except for the last one mentioned in RfU.
And the internal structure of Russia is breaking up faster than I would have expected.

 

[dogwatch]

In most end-game scenarios (whether they fully recover Crimea or not), Ukr will have an angry and militaristic Rus on its border. Extremely high priority for any final settlement will be some sort of article 5 like protection, because they simply cannot trust anything Rus says and they will need something to deter Russia from just doing this again.

Admission to NATO requires unanimity and I find it hard to see Hungary or Turkey voting "aye". Maybe they could be bludgeoned or bribed to do so, I guess we shall see. On the related question of EU membership, which someone else has raised, while evidently the UK doesn't get a vote on that, I find it difficult to see UKR as less than a million miles from the criteria for membership. The mood music has switched towards core membership with, maybe, some kind of associate status for those who cannot or do not want to qualify for full membership. Just because UKR wants membership doesn't mean they get it, see Turkey.

I'm aware of raising problems without suggesting solutions. Unfortunately, I'm not sure the solutions are there.

 

[dogwatch]

(3) It is probably helpful for negotiating leverage to, at the least, clearly demonstrate to Russia that Ukr can, in fact, choke Crimea. They probably need a pretty good supply of long-range missiles (and launch platforms) to accomplish this - I would guess they really don't have enough atm to make as compelling a demonstration as necessary.

I believe Russia could, if need be, supply Crimea in the medium term by sea and air and nothing short of direct NATO intervention could prevent that. I don't see that happening.

 

[dogwatch]

I see we have a new Russian shill.

You are describing me as a "Russian shill"? Fuck's sake, you know better than that.

 

[enigmatically2]

You are describing me as a "Russian shill"? Fuck's sake, you know better than that.

Not you, David R

 

[dogwatch]

Oh good. Thanks for clarifying.

 

[enigmatically2]

It seems the UKR counter-offensive has started. Competing claims as to what has happening. RU says all beaten back, other sources say UKR has made gains of up to 5km in area of border between Donets/Zaporizhzhya oblasts

We will see

 

[dogwatch]

If you’ve ever visited a “DMZ” like in Korea, you realize it’s just temporary stasis and not entirely stable.

In the short or long-term, you could say that about most continental borders. The situation of the USA, with land borders uncontested in the present day, isn't typical of the globe.