Ukraine
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chesirecat
Super Anarchist
Not verified but there are multiple sources coming thru with similar.
Ukrainian forces advanced 5-10 km in the Zaporizhya region in the past day and inflicted 18,000-19,000 casualties on enemy forces in southern Ukraine over the past week (4,500-5,000 killed and another 13,700-14,500 wounded), according to the site Volya, which cites Ukrainian and Russian security sources Those numbers, which are roughly in line with Ukrainian official estimates of Russian losses, mean nearly a quarter of the 85,000 Russian troops in southern Ukraine were put out of action in a week, Volya says Ukraine has yet to commit most of its forces available for the counteroffensive to battle, while Russia on the other hand has already deployed about 75% of its reserves to close gaps emerging in its front and reinforce its retreating forces, the site says Ukraine is said to have focused in the first several days of action on heavily targeting Russian artillery (Ukraine estimates it has destroyed 181 enemy artillery and MLRS systems since June 4), forcing many surviving artillery units to be withdrawn to the rear, and has now turned to striking enemy logistics, which has resulted in supply problems for enemy forces "Russian artillery is now more concerned with survival than with covering fire for its infantry or destroying targets in the Ukrainian rear," Volya says Opsec note: Information in this post is already reported publicly and/or obviously known to the enemy https://telegra.ph/V-48-chasah-ot-Blizhajshie-dvoe-sutok-na-yuge-Ukrainy-mogut-opredelit-ves-hod-dalnejshego-nastupleniya-06-10… Here's a post on why Ukrainian estimates of Russian losses are likely realistic https://twitter.com/ArmedMaidan/status/1640025503846334465…
Ukrainian forces advanced 5-10 km in the Zaporizhya region in the past day and inflicted 18,000-19,000 casualties on enemy forces in southern Ukraine over the past week (4,500-5,000 killed and another 13,700-14,500 wounded), according to the site Volya, which cites Ukrainian and Russian security sources Those numbers, which are roughly in line with Ukrainian official estimates of Russian losses, mean nearly a quarter of the 85,000 Russian troops in southern Ukraine were put out of action in a week, Volya says Ukraine has yet to commit most of its forces available for the counteroffensive to battle, while Russia on the other hand has already deployed about 75% of its reserves to close gaps emerging in its front and reinforce its retreating forces, the site says Ukraine is said to have focused in the first several days of action on heavily targeting Russian artillery (Ukraine estimates it has destroyed 181 enemy artillery and MLRS systems since June 4), forcing many surviving artillery units to be withdrawn to the rear, and has now turned to striking enemy logistics, which has resulted in supply problems for enemy forces "Russian artillery is now more concerned with survival than with covering fire for its infantry or destroying targets in the Ukrainian rear," Volya says Opsec note: Information in this post is already reported publicly and/or obviously known to the enemy https://telegra.ph/V-48-chasah-ot-Blizhajshie-dvoe-sutok-na-yuge-Ukrainy-mogut-opredelit-ves-hod-dalnejshego-nastupleniya-06-10… Here's a post on why Ukrainian estimates of Russian losses are likely realistic https://twitter.com/ArmedMaidan/status/1640025503846334465…
Monkey
Super Anarchist
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Absolutely correct. I don’t think that piece of shit believes half of what he says, but he knows there’s a lot of money to be made by telling stupid people exactly what they want to hear.
chesirecat
Super Anarchist
The Kyiv Independent
https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent
@KyivIndependent
Russian proxies face water supply problems in Crimea following Kakhovka dam destruction. After the destruction of Kakhovka Dam on June 6, Russian-occupied Crimea is facing serious water supply problems, the Ukrainian military's National Resistance Center reported.
Moscow-installed head of occupied Crimea, Sergey Aksyonov, has been apparently instructed to downplay the critical situation.
https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent
@KyivIndependent
Russian proxies face water supply problems in Crimea following Kakhovka dam destruction. After the destruction of Kakhovka Dam on June 6, Russian-occupied Crimea is facing serious water supply problems, the Ukrainian military's National Resistance Center reported.
Moscow-installed head of occupied Crimea, Sergey Aksyonov, has been apparently instructed to downplay the critical situation.
estarzinger
Super Anarchist
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Is there some new information or fact here?
We know russia operated Crimea from 2014 to 2022 with the canal closed. We know it was not optimal for them (primarily greatly reduced agriculture), but it was managed and not a 'crisis'.
It was reported (by Dutch I believe) that as the dam was at 30 year record high level, that the Crimea reservoirs had been completely filled and represented a 2-year supply of water (at current, usage rates).
So I am puzzled by what facts support the description 'Crimea .....critical situation'. They will have to cut back agriculture water usage to pre-2022 levels - is that the 'crisis'?
I don't mean to minimize the significant implications that blowing the dam will have more broadly - significant flooded farm land now (and reduced Ag water flow later across Kherson region), even more displaced population, ecological damage, obviously puts the hydro power out and also makes restarting the nuc plant pretty much impossible eliminating major longer-term electrical supply. Rebuilding the dam is possible but quite expensive and 5-year effort (after peace is established).
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dogwatch
Super Anarchist
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Just more propaganda. UKR and RUS propagandists come from the same schools of vranyo (half-lies) and provocation (e.g. false flag operation). We may give UKR a pass for being on the side of the angels but expecting truth in the way we expect, or at least hope for, truth-telling from western governments, is a mistake.
enigmatically2
Super Anarchist
Irrespective of the bridge, it seems that partisans have blown both main railway routes to Crimea.
As well as some progress south from Zaporozhye in 2 areas
As well as some progress south from Zaporozhye in 2 areas
enigmatically2
Super Anarchist
And more infighting between russian MOD and Wagner. This could easily be the fault lines of a civil war there at some point
Ukraine war: Russia moves to take direct control of Wagner Group
It appears to be the latest in a public falling out between the Wagner boss and Russian officials.
www.bbc.co.uk
Whether or not UKR can retake Crimean landmass any time soon or ever, making Crimea untenable, especially military, is absolutely key to all of this imo.
But food needs to still get in, so cutting supply lines is risky for humanitarian reasons. Ideally, UKR would be able to supply Crimea by either rail from UKR occupied territory, or ultimately by ship from Odessa into the (by then militarily abandoned) port of Sevastopol. And then take out the Kirch bridge and bomb the f'ck out of that Port Nov-whatever if RU creates navy/shipping aggression problems from out of there.
Mark_K
Super Anarchist
The issue of Crimea's water is best shown by the condition of the agriculture before the dam and canal were built. Olive trees, grass for grazing, dry-land farming only, pretty much, the wells produced enough water for people but not for irrigation.
Then came four decades of heavy irrigation. The peninsula was practically paved over with wheat and other crops, while the water table was given a significant break and rose, so the crises of losing the canal was not immediate, but it was assured. The general consensus was within a decade that would be depleted. All those farms were doomed.
enigmatically2
Super Anarchist
Cutting the railway lines will significantly hamper Russian military supply because they are very tail based, but is clearly not a humanitarian issue because any ciivilian can leave by bridge (or ferry) if they want
To the (newly) occupied territories especially, I suppose. But even in those areas, would rail not be important for feeding the population? I'd prefer they target military targets more specifically.
enigmatically2
Super Anarchist
Russian military is heavily reliant on rail everywhere. And as I say, Russian civilians can leave Crimea any time they want
enigmatically2
Super Anarchist
Multiple reports that UKr have recaptured Makarivka. That suggests an advance of 6km in the last 24hours. This could mean that RU is mounting an organised withdrawal to the 2nd line, or that they are being routed. As always, time will tell
'Russian civilians' or whatever civilians they are, need food and other supplies. Cutting rail lines could lead to yet another humanitarian disaster.
The targets need to be military ones.
They can get food over the Kerch Bridge, for now. Rail lines are military targets.
Okay - Agreed on this, it worked for a long time, that and probably shipping too.
But if the K bridge, and the S port, go down well then .... then what? How many people live in Crimea, several hundred thousand?
Maybe there are rail lines into Crimea west of the river; and maybe those rail lines and maybe rail bridges being damaged east of the river could be repaired later.
LeoV
Super Anarchist
They can ask the UN for food parcels.
enigmatically2
Super Anarchist
Are you actually suggesting that UKr should not be allowed to target logistical routes because it may impact civilians?
That is ridiculous.
They are not blockading and starving civilians because civilians are free to leave Crimea at any time
