US ranked #1 to best deal with a disease outbreak

[Se7en]

It’s the premise, and everything flows from it.

I’m looking it as an unprecedented collapse of demand b3cause people are reasonably worried about a nasty virus and the restrictions are following. The economy is collapsing. The question is how to fix it. 

I'd say that the question is how to manage the collapse, and then how to fix it. How much pain do we want to take from the collapse,  and how much pain from the virus?

(so far it seems we are happy to take all of the economy collapse to save pain from the virus)

Threre is pretty strong demand for toilet paper, rice, meat and flour. Which amuses me, as with a diet of rice, flour and meat, I don't need much toilet paper...

 

[BeSafe]

Can't take credit.. but worth reposting.  Curse me but I do love dark humor.

 

[Se7en]

So far thats the collective choice made. If we want a different choice, what do we do?

Strict quarantine of anyone infected or exposed. Trace exposure aggressively. Everyone else gets on with life.

There are under 1000 infections in Australia currently. Assume those 1000 had exposure to 100 people each. That's 100 000 people in lockdown, the rest of us keep the goods and services flowing, and chip in a bit to support the 100 000.

Currently we have 25 million peope all in half assed quarantine. Except when they want to go shopping or to the pub.

Scale up or down in other locations.

 

[mad]

You didn't talk about their security - you talked about your sacrifice. I have a very good understanding of how fragile security can be in the face of necesity and legal pressure.

Your sacrifices are noble, your belief in security in these times naive.

I don't enjoy the botanicals in Blue Sapphire gin. I'm actually drinking a rooibos gin, yet to decide if I like it, but the investigation is pleasant.

Any links?  Sounds like something I should try. 

 

[Fakenews]

The Trump admin was warned b the intel community early and often about Coronavirus and did nothing to prepare.

https://www.mediaite.com/news/new-report-details-us-intel-warnings-about-coronavirus-from-earlier-this-year-system-was-blinking-red/

Troubling.

 

[Se7en]

Any links?  Sounds like something I should try. 

Try google? 

Edit: first hit in google images is what I'm drinking - https://www.yuppiechef.com/cape-town-gin-company.htm?id=26467&name=Cape-Town-Gin-Company-Rooibos-Red-Gin

It's a bottle I bought in Jo'burg duty free, so I guess it's pretty mainstream. Only a little like rooibos tea, and I'm not sure it goes well with tonic. Tempted to try coke, but gin and coke is way too depressing a drink.

 

[mad]

Strict quarantine of anyone infected or exposed. Trace exposure aggressively. Everyone else gets on with life.

There are under 1000 infections in Australia currently. Assume those 1000 had exposure to 100 people each. That's 100 000 people in lockdown, the rest of us keep the goods and services flowing, and chip in a bit to support the 100 000.

Currently we have 25 million peope all in half assed quarantine. Except when they want to go shopping or to the pub.

Scale up or down in other locations.

How long before the pubs, clubs and restaurants close?  You can’t be that far behind the countries that have.  

 

[mad]

Try google?

It's a bottle I bought in Jo'burg duty free, so I guess it's pretty mainstream. Only a little like rooibos tea, and I'm not sure it goes well with tonic. Tempted to try coke, but gin and coke is way too depressing a drink.

Thanks, I’d never heard of it before. 

 

[Se7en]

How long before the pubs, clubs and restaurants close?  You can’t be that far behind the countries that have.  

No idea. Local looked packed when we rode past it this afternoon.

 

[Bus Driver]

There is something incredibly consistent with these "growth curves".  Hearing things are getting sideways in NYC suggests are bumpy ride.



For those who prefer the log scale -

 

[Bristol-Cruiser]

How the Canadian response is different.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZSSuKKYmvoI

All Canadians can respond to this. You look outside on a lovely sunny day in March and think it is warm so go out without a coat and find out it really isn't that warm. Being sensible, he delayed the start of his presser to get his coat. As someone said on Twitter, mothers everywhere applauded. Trudeau is working from home because his wife is positive. He does these press conferences each day. The committee in charge of doing stuff have their press conference each day led by the deputy prime minister. They sit at a long table with an empty chair between each person. The composition of the committee is very Canadian. It is about half female (the Deputy PM is a woman) and the federal chief medical office is a woman of Chinese descent (HK by the accent). Two of the cabinet members who report are of Indian (as in India) ancestry. One of the minor cabinet minsters (another woman) is by good luck a PhD medical geographer who is an expert on pandemics. She did research on 1918 and lead the research team that recovered samples of the virus from bodies buried in permafrost in Spitzbergen.

The Canadian response is far from perfect. There are concerns about test delays (we have done about 2/3 as many tests as the US for about 1/10 the population) and respirators. In general though, you get a sense that things are being done about as well as possible by a competent group of leaders. It does cause a sense of some security for people.

 

[BeSafe]

Strict quarantine of anyone infected or exposed. Trace exposure aggressively. Everyone else gets on with life.

What do you do if someone doesn't WANT to enter strict quarantine?  What level of liberties are you willing to restrict and for how long?   Do people get a chance at retest (i.e., appeal) in case of false positives?  The early tests in Korea has 1-4% false positive rate.  People neither remember nor admit everyone they come in contact with during a week.  How do you trace exposure aggressively without massive state surveillance?   That's actually the basis of the 'shut down commerce' argument - if we can't identify/lockdown people, we'll get rid of the reason for them to go out.

The answer for this pandemic is we'll play it by ear.   That's honestly the only workable answer for today.  We're well past any planning stage - it's 'wing that mutha' time.  I said above what I think we should do.  Mobilize the shit out of production and make enough beds/PPE/trained professionals to minimize the time we're in limbo-land while biopharma focuses on treatments.  India and Africa are on deck - time's a wastin!

I think the NEXT pandemic - and there will be a next - will be much closer to what you're suggesting.  There will be universal tracking and there will be 'strict quarantine' measures enacted much more quickly.  Ultimately, that's the only way to endure pandemics without totally crushing economies.   That will be one of the outcome of this one.  In this US, I think this will also result in some sort of universal health care.  You can't achieve quarantine when 10+% of your population doesn't actually go to doctors.

 

[ShortForBob]

Strict quarantine of anyone infected or exposed. Trace exposure aggressively. Everyone else gets on with life.

Can you remember everyone you came within 1.5 metres, do you know who that girl on the train was and where she got off?  of and every surface you touched in the last 3 days?

Do I  know who handed me that slightly damp book that came though the returns chute ,,or the 300 books?

Do we know everyone who used the public computers for an hour or the study desks or the AV rooms?

Who was that masked man at the ATM?

I love these people that sit all day in some place and never meet the public.

 

[Dog]

It’s the premise, and everything flows from it.

I’m looking it as an unprecedented collapse of demand b3cause people are reasonably worried about a nasty virus and the restrictions are following. The economy is collapsing. The question is how to fix it. 

The economy is not collapsing from the virus, its effects to date have been infinitesimal. The economy is collapsing from our reaction to it. Here's a possible scenario you won't like:

The pandemic plays out to be a lot less serious than the media fear mongers have sold. Who's going to get credit for his management of what in reality was never the threat it was portrayed as...Donald Trump. Who's going to get the blame for spreading panic that cost the population 20% of it's wealth....fake news.

 

[The Joker]

The economy is not collapsing from the virus, its effects to date have been infinitesimal. The economy is collapsing from our reaction to it. Here's a possible scenario you won't like:

The pandemic plays out to be a lot less serious than the media fear mongers have sold. Who's going to get credit for his management of what in reality was never the threat it was portrayed as...Donald Trump. Who's going to get the blame for spreading panic that cost the population 20% of it's wealth....fake news.

Yep. Looks like it’s already happening. 

 

https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/488597-majority-of-americans-approve-of-trumps-handling-of-coronavirus-poll

 
The majority of Americans now approve of President Trump's handling of the coronavirus pandemic, a reversal from just one week prior, according to a new Ipsos/ABC News poll.



Of those surveyed, 55 percent said that they approved of the president's handling of the situation, while 43 percent said they disapproved. The numbers were basically reversed from one week ago when 54 percent said they disapproved and 43 percent approved.

 

[phillysailor]

And, still, no one in the "responding to the pandemic is killing us" has any new data to suggest an evidence-based approach, nothing but hyperbole to explain the problem. There are no plans and no metrics.

That's the problem here, folks. Unless and until there is a coherent response, you're just complaining you have to stay inside and not do stuff. Stop repeating "the sky is falling" while blithely accepting that patients dying in droves and the health care workers are getting sick and stuff. You've fallen too far behind on the empathy and ethics curve, we've neglected safety and security on too large a scale to implement anything but draconian social solutions. The opportunity for a measured response has come and gone 1.5 months ago.

 

[Sean]

The economy is not collapsing from the virus, its effects to date have been infinitesimal. The economy is collapsing from our reaction to it. Here's a possible scenario you won't like:

The pandemic plays out to be a lot less serious than the media fear mongers have sold. Who's going to get credit for his management of what in reality was never the threat it was portrayed as...Donald Trump. Who's going to get the blame for spreading panic that cost the population 20% of it's wealth....fake news.

The pandemic may play out to be "a lot less serious than the media fear mongers have sold" as a direct result of the media fear mongering. If the media fear mongers had followed Trump's lead, we might be in a very different situation.

 

[mad]

Yep. Looks like it’s already happening. 

 

https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/488597-majority-of-americans-approve-of-trumps-handling-of-coronavirus-poll

 
The majority of Americans now approve of President Trump's handling of the coronavirus pandemic, a reversal from just one week prior, according to a new Ipsos/ABC News poll.



Of those surveyed, 55 percent said that they approved of the president's handling of the situation, while 43 percent said they disapproved. The numbers were basically reversed from one week ago when 54 percent said they disapproved and 43 percent approved.

When you start posting the same links as the Happy Jack/Punslinger, you’re on very slippery ground! 

 

[Olsonist]

Ya think so?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/American_Civil_War

Article One, Section 9, clause 2, of the big C sez:

The Privilege of the Writ of Habeas Corpus shall not be suspended, unless when in Cases of Rebellion or Invasion the public Safety may require it.

 

[Bus Driver]

The economy is not collapsing from the virus, its effects to date have been infinitesimal. The economy is collapsing from our reaction to it. Here's a possible scenario you won't like:

The pandemic plays out to be a lot less serious than the media fear mongers have sold. Who's going to get credit for his management of what in reality was never the threat it was portrayed as...Donald Trump. Who's going to get the blame for spreading panic that cost the population 20% of it's wealth....fake news.

On a scale of 1-10, how would YOU rate President Trump's response to this situation?