Vendee Globe 2016?

Alex_

Member
The weather gods presented a very nice Christmas gift to Alex. And Alex is having a super comeback from a DTL of 818 nm last Friday to 418 nm just now. Incredible. And we still have a serious race on for 1st place my naviguessing below shows. Post 1/2.

Input- 0830 CET positions- GFS 10 days (0,25 degrees) and after that- Open CPN climate plugin with historical weather data as proxy- standard IMOCA 2015 polars Output- Armel to finish ETA January 16th (that was on the previous routing 2 days ago the 14th) see yellow routing- Alex to finish ETA January 16th (that was previous also the 16th) see blue routing

- Delta time Alex compared to Armel: 6 hours (that was 40 hours)- Alex port/SB tack: 36 % / 64 % => almost unchanged to previous routing 2 days ago- Alex upwind: 53% (was 49%) => not good for catching up with 1 foil only

Analysis

As stated by Greatcircle in their weather analysis today, Armel is pushed towards the ice limits. See also my 2nd screenshot. His route has substantially shifted to the east compared to 2 days ago. The GFS weather routing for Alex is compared to Armel more or less the same, and more or less following the coastline. They are projected to sail in different weather, with more opportunities for Alex it seems.

Disclaimer

Polars overestimating performance Alex starboard foil on port tack. GFS GRIB has to become reality etc. etc that's why it's naviguessing :D
Excellent! Thanks.

 

ct800

Member
68
18
--
Looking at the forss tracker and the GFS data, looks like Armel might be parked/making slow progress in a becalmed area after the Horn. (16-24 hours from now)

In the meantime Alex will be on staaaarboard tack, broad reaching in 18-20 knots.

Not to place any bets, but hope he can the current reduce 700+ gap to around 400.
Next time I'll truly make some bets.

Game on!

 

LeoV

Super Anarchist
12,681
3,740
The Netherlands
Jack,

Conny... that was a guy... and the sailors around him.

But this Heerema is the good one of the two brothers, he split years ago, his company of which he stepped out is just normal.

The other one has a bad reputation.

I would think Heery regrets he took not his cruising yacht ...

 

LeoV

Super Anarchist
12,681
3,740
The Netherlands
Back to important tuff,

Will ALC see AT coming closer ? Seems ALC has now stopped the bleeding and is advancing again.

Will YB overtake AT.

Will JPD, after doing even a westward loop be fighting for a podium ?

Who of the two oldies JLC and YE will prevail ?

Will Lious Burton be very happy with his position in the ranking and the (IRC) new boat waiting for him for the next run...

Will Fa be surprised to be 8th...

And alll the rest of the stories... to much going on.

 

Alex_

Member
Back to important tuff,

Will ALC see AT coming closer ? Seems ALC has now stopped the bleeding and is advancing again.

Yes!

Will YB overtake AT.

Never!

Will JPD, after doing even a westward loop be fighting for a podium ?

Maybe.

Who of the two oldies JLC and YE will prevail ?

No idea.

Will Lious Burton be very happy with his position in the ranking and the (IRC) new boat waiting for him for the next run...

He should be.

Will Fa be surprised to be 8th...

He will actually come 7th ;-)!

And alll the rest of the stories... to much going on.
Answers embedded ;-) ! Why we don't have a poll functionality here in SA forum? It could be quite fun, the wisdom of the crowd stuff ..
 

jack_sparrow

Super Anarchist
37,393
5,094
Jack,

Conny... that was a guy... and the sailors around him.

But this Heerema is the good one of the two brothers, he split years ago, his company of which he stepped out is just normal.

The other one has a bad reputation.

I would think Heery regrets he took not his cruising yacht ...
You would know more than me Leo in that flat land family history department. and arguably Conny cemented B&G on the map 35 odd years ago..Won't before long our generation is dead and everyone will say...WWII wots that?

 

moody frog

Super Anarchist
4,294
114
Brittany
Back to important tuff,

Will ALC see AT coming closer ? Seems ALC has now stopped the bleeding and is advancing again.

Will YB overtake AT.

Will JPD, after doing even a westward loop be fighting for a podium ?

Who of the two oldies JLC and YE will prevail ?

Will Lious Burton be very happy with his position in the ranking and the (IRC) new boat waiting for him for the next run...

Will Fa be surprised to be 8th...

And alll the rest of the stories... to much going on.
Pretty good summary Leo....

Just one thing: I doubt Y.E would appreciate being classified in JLC's age group, he would rightfully rate JLC as being from the older generation, that who was already fighting his own father in the Figaro :)

 

czo79

Member
Man, looks like Conrad Colman and Nandor Fa are going to be in for quite the wild ride. Over 50 knots a 10m waves! Wonder if Conrads north heading right now is trying to get out of the way of the worst of it?

 

jack_sparrow

Super Anarchist
37,393
5,094
Alex might well grab a fuckin lot of miles out of Armel in the next 3 or 4 days...then again I said that a week ago for around now ...so maybe I'm just repeating myself.

 
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jack_sparrow

Super Anarchist
37,393
5,094
I hadn't realised that some were using B&G autopilot. Are there many? When did NKE loose supremacy?
None of the foilers are using NKE.
B&G and NKE have split the fleet for the past couple of editions. This time around, I think it is about 60% B&G and 40% NKE.
RM NKE have traditionally taken AP bragging rights ...,what happened???

 
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jonas a

Super Anarchist
Man, looks like Conrad Colman and Nandor Fa are going to be in for quite the wild ride. Over 50 knots a 10m waves! Wonder if Conrads north heading right now is trying to get out of the way of the worst of it?
Yes he is not in a particulary nice spot right now. Need to find some speed

 

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