Vendee Globe 2016?

terrafirma

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Given the majority of the next 8 days looks like it could be powered up on stbd you'd have to say Alex really is still in with a shot.

Who knows? AT fans would be hoping Alex is playing Dead? In reality we know Armel will be sailing to win and not taking any notice. Hugo Boss must be very fast on SB. Imagine 2 of the same one could argue Alex wins..!

 

jack_sparrow

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Wish Alex and Jeremie more so were more east..Armel absolutely nailed his D exit point...could be a hot hand red flare canal moment just there.

 
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ague

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Great race, so competitive after 63 days on the water! Neither AT or ALC are going to let anything go, regardless of their current position and boat condition. Wasn't it ALC that won a Figaro by a few seconds (something like 10+ years ago) and later said that competitive solo sailing had more to do with chess than fighting?

(I am still a bit surprised by how faster HB is over BP in very light winds. Not sure hull shape and weight explains it all? Maybe the wardrobe?)

 
89
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Go Nándi!

nandor-fa-au-cap-horn-spirit-of-hungary-c-640-340.jpg


 

jack_sparrow

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Wick's a hick. You want badass...

http://youtu.be/qo5jnBJvGUs
Give me break Varan ..The best that non-reflective hair brush could do was shoot some unarmed hamburger eating stoner/college idiots....at least idiot Willy boy got out of Dodge with his "sure rectum" in one piece, albeit I'm sure he never played ping pong again.
The Wickster has just told me he now learning how to sail...seems he has the next VG in his sights....and has an interesting strategy for being the only one to finish.

 
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moody frog

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I think that throwing waste overboard for purely performance (not safety) reasons is disallowed, no?
I think last edition you could keep your keel bulb until you were out of the big seas of the southern ocean and then you could jettison it for a light run home. In fact I think the Vendee were going to allow depleted uranium to be used as a super dense bulb material because the French wanted a way to dispose of all their nuclear waste by dropping keels in the deep sea!)
That is a nasty tongue-in-cheek one against the French nucleair industry. France - the only country in Europe that was miraculously spared from the Chernobyl fallout as the fallout respected the French borders and Gendarmerie.
Don't worry Sailing Authorities are strong and namely the O.R.C

Four years later, Tabarly came into the race having claimed a second high-profile victory in the single-handed transatlantic race. Again, though, Pen Duick VI had the spent-uranium keel and by this time it had been banned. Tabarly started the race provisionally but the Offshore Racing Council subsequently ruled against him and Pen Duick was not considered an official entry.
from: http://www.volvooceanrace.com/en/news/7245_Roaring-Forties-chapter-22-Frances-inspiration.html

:rolleyes:

 

ct800

Member
68
18
--
Tried Squid for weather routing. The weather routing option using the Greatcircle servers for calculation via an email request worked. Computing on the PC crashed 4 times so gave that up. The Routing Analysis statistics for the projections seemed more reliable than OpenCPN. Love that option to see different scenarios moving on the screen at the same time with the boats moving and the weather changing. The option to power up or down "standard" polars is very handy.

Input

  • GFS 0,25 degrees
  • 3 hour time steps
  • 2 scenarios. Powered the IMOCA 2015 polars towards 110% for both Armel and Alex, and powered Alex up to 115%.
  • 07:30 GMT positions

Output

  • With 110% polars for Armel and Alex, Armel beats Alex with a delta of 7 hours ETA Jan 17 in the evening.
  • With 115% polars for Alex, and 110% for Armel, Armel beats Alex with a delta of 1 hour.

Analysis

  • All 3 routes on an staaaarboard tack up to the finish, so that should leave indeed options for Alex imho to grind down Armel. This ain't over until the fat lady sings at LSDO.
Great stuff. Hoping to get more and more refined and detailed updates as we come close to the end.

Also done some tests with the online Remora tool. Looks like a very nice downwind (140-150 TWA) section coming up after the Azores islands.

It has to be pedal to the metal for both Armel and Alex.

May the best win.

 

stief

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[snip]

I don't think he'll go for another round. He's pretty much a solo guy, which even goes to building he's own boat. He was the first non-French to finish on a VG (1992-93) which was quite an achievement.He already had two circumnavigations by that time (first in 1988-1990 in a 31 feet boat, non-solo, and then on the 90-91 BOC challenge). He abandoned the next VG, due to collision, and then he stopped doing ocean racing for a long time. To some, it seemed like he got scared or disappointed to not attempt the VG again. But he said that doing an other VG was his ultimate dream, so he moved considerable efforts to get this done. He had a number of problems with this boat before and during the BWR, but looks like finally he got it robust enough to be a good boat, although it is not on par with even older generation boats, but so far it seams it does not break. I do not think that he would be able to build a new boat that could even have the slightest chance to be competitive against the new foilers. Given his solo attitude, I do not think either that he'd just buy a good boat. Besides by the time of the next VG, he'll be 67, and he has repeatedly said that he was getting old. So all in all, I think if he finishes, especially at 8th place, that would be a result that he could be satisfied, and would not be longing for another race.
If that was indeed Nandor's last Horn rounding, it is a remarkable moment to a remarkable career in rtw sailing. Thinking of others of his generation, like Sir Robin K-J, Nandor too has done a lot to help make the Vendee international.

Cheers to Nandor (Nándi?) with appreciation.

 
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stief

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Well said:

Woooow! at 23:15 UTC I saw the land appear between two clouds! It’s an island, but it’s part of the continent. I haven’t seen something like this since the start. It’s about 30 miles away from me. On the left in front of me, I see enormous grey masses of clouds, they are created as the mountains push the air upwards and humidity precipitates. They look scary, although I think they are harmless. We’ll see, I’m going their way.

The wind had span up and forced me to gybe again. Now I’m sailing on starboard tack towards SE until it will be worth to gybe back, it depends on the wind and our position to the land. As soon as I was done with the maneuver I leaned against the cockpit to watch the cumulus’s above the Cordilleras. They were enlightened by the beams of the descending sun. Luminous white foams appear then dive under the water, God’s most beautiful creatures the albatross are circling around me like visions of a dream, and I wonder: this is probably the last time I see the rigid wonder this place is. Tears came into my eye. This is why I came here, to say goodbye to this wild, inscrutable beauty.

The lights of the night are wonderful. Ahead of me it’s all greyness, but behind me is the exact opposite: beauty and happiness. On the right I can see the Moon in its shiniest glow, the waves below are reflecting it. To the left there’s the blue stripe of the sunset on the horizon, as it looks across above the Antarctic. I doesn’t go darker than this, it goes around and comes back here. Soon it will greet me again from the East.

The wind had decreased and slowed me to 9 knots. This is perhaps just so that I don’t leave the cape too fast. I’ll gybe in 20 miles, from there I will have 15 miles more to go. I will be over the cape by then, but I will be the closest to it – approx. 8 miles away. The wind is light and the streams are strong. I don’t want to be surprised so I won’t go any closer to the sleeping bear.

On 9th January at 05:00 UTC I gybed to port tack. From now I’m on the way home. I have to sail 17 more miles to pass the longitudinal point of the cape. Then I will have rounded Cape Horn officially. I’ve been cooling the champagne for five weeks, it’s ready to be opened. I’ve already had my celebration feast in the evening, I just need a good cup of tea beside the champagne. There is only a little month of sailing left, and we’re finished.

At 06:40 UTC this morning, I passed the longitude of Cape Horn, so I’m on the Atlantic again.

Position: 9th Jan., 06:41 UTC, 56° 09′ S, 067° 15,8′ W, I rounded Cape Horn!
http://spiritofhungary.hu/nandors-5th-rounding-of-cape-horn-completed-ship-log-on-9th-january-vendee-globe-2016-2017/

 
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semelis

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I think that throwing waste overboard for purely performance (not safety) reasons is disallowed, no?
I think last edition you could keep your keel bulb until you were out of the big seas of the southern ocean and then you could jettison it for a light run home. In fact I think the Vendee were going to allow depleted uranium to be used as a super dense bulb material because the French wanted a way to dispose of all their nuclear waste by dropping keels in the deep sea!)
That is a nasty tongue-in-cheek one against the French nucleair industry. France - the only country in Europe that was miraculously spared from the Chernobyl fallout as the fallout respected the French borders and Gendarmerie.
Not the only one, the Pyrenees protected Spain , making the north wind turn to the Mediterranean with all the radioactive fallout.

They explained it very well in the weather forecasts. :p

Did not explain though, why this never happens normally or in what state that left the fishes in the Mediterranean sea :rolleyes:

 

massilia

Member
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(I am still a bit surprised by how faster HB is over BP in very light winds. Not sure hull shape and weight explains it all? Maybe the wardrobe?)
Especially when HB is supposedly 500kg heavier than BP according to Lauriot Prevot (make it a 300kg difference since one of HB foils has been lost)

 
89
19
5th time? Which were his previous ones? It must be sad to not see it for the last time...
First time in 1988-1990 in a 31 feet boat with an other guy (József Gál) , this was with a number of stops. They were the first Hungarians to circumnavigate.

Second time in 1990-1991 BOC Challenge, 60 foot class. He came in last, but finished.

Third time in 1992-1993 Vendée Globe, finished 5th, first non-French ever. (He abandoned the 1996 VG, due to collision)

Fourth time in 2014-2015 Barcelona World Race, with Conrad Colman. Again, they came in last, but given his problems with the new boat, it was expected.

 
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Roleur

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Orcas Island
(I am still a bit surprised by how faster HB is over BP in very light winds. Not sure hull shape and weight explains it all? Maybe the wardrobe?)
Especially when HB is supposedly 500kg heavier than BP according to Lauriot Prevot (make it a 300kg difference since one of HB foils has been lost)
Given what we know about the other boats, what are the odds that both BP and HB have a full set of working sails still? I think it is very low. Not only that, but we know/have heard that they have different sail selections from the start. So, very plausible that HB has a better sail selection for these conditions, either because he started that way, or due to sail attrition.

I still believe that BP has some type of problem that slows him at least some of the time and we won't hear about it until after the finish.

 
Tried Squid for weather routing. The weather routing option using the Greatcircle servers for calculation via an email request worked. Computing on the PC crashed 4 times so gave that up. The Routing Analysis statistics for the projections seemed more reliable than OpenCPN. Love that option to see different scenarios moving on the screen at the same time with the boats moving and the weather changing. The option to power up or down "standard" polars is very handy.

Input

  • GFS 0,25 degrees
  • 3 hour time steps
  • 2 scenarios. Powered the IMOCA 2015 polars towards 110% for both Armel and Alex, and powered Alex up to 115%.
  • 07:30 GMT positions

Output

  • With 110% polars for Armel and Alex, Armel beats Alex with a delta of 7 hours ETA Jan 17 in the evening.
  • With 115% polars for Alex, and 110% for Armel, Armel beats Alex with a delta of 1 hour.

Analysis

  • All 3 routes on an staaaarboard tack up to the finish, so that should leave indeed options for Alex imho to grind down Armel. This ain't over until the fat lady sings at LSDO.
Thanks, this is cool. After all of this, a fraction of a percent difference.

 

stief

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Sask Canada
[snip]

Given what we know about the other boats, what are the odds that both BP and HB have a full set of working sails still? I think it is very low. Not only that, but we know/have heard that they have different sail selections from the start. So, very plausible that HB has a better sail selection for these conditions, either because he started that way, or due to sail attrition.
Good odds you will be right on this. e.g., Ian Walker brought up how little we know about the condition of their sails (and more).

starts at 5:51 http://www.dailymotion.com/video/x57ve0w_the-vendee-live-of-the-9th-january-vendee-globe_sport

If Alex has not suffered sail-wise, I'm sure we'll hear from Doyle :)

 
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moody frog

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Interesting statistics by Voiles & Voiliers (mysterious Magnus Henderson) - encl. pic -

He notes that Alex's time from Cape Horn to the Equator is the best ever for a VG competitor.

I note, with much satisfaction, that JLC got the second best time in both the Indian and Pacific Oceans. A "sea animal" did I say in an earlier post ;)

Stats.jpg

 
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Roleur

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Orcas Island
Interesting statistics by Voiles & Voiliers (mysterious Magnus Henderson) - encl. pic -

He notes that Alex's time from Cape Horn to the Equator is the best ever for a VG competitor.

I note, with much satisfaction, that JLC got the second best time in both the Indian and Pacific Oceans. A "sea animal" did I say in an earlier post ;)
Perhaps more interesting. Alex was 4th fastest across the Indian and Pacific. Real impact of the missing foil? HB seems to go up/down much better than around...

 




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