Vendee Globe 2016?

Sailbydate

Super Anarchist
11,807
3,399
Kohimarama
I think Hugo Boss must have their AIS transponder turned off. I searched Liveship but could not find her.ALC up to 24 knots now...rootin' for Alex though
Hell no. As stated earlier in the thread above, it's f*cking busy there with cargo ships that don't even notice that they have send you to Neptune. I think it's in the VG regulations to have AIS on. If not, good seamanship (colregs) will mean to have the AIS on, always. Unless the electrics have burnt out and/or the battery gone.

+1 Who would willingly take that risk, especially at night?

 

stief

Super Anarchist
8,118
2,440
Sask Canada
These kids will have great memories of this race

https://www.francebleu.fr/infos/education/vendee-globe-des-collegiens-de-lencloitre-suivent-en-classe-le-parcours-des-skippers-1483732339

870x489_20170106_142510.jpg


 

vibroman

Super Anarchist
I think Hugo Boss must have their AIS transponder turned off. I searched Liveship but could not find her.ALC up to 24 knots now...rootin' for Alex though
Hell no. As stated earlier in the thread above, it's f*cking busy there with cargo ships that don't even notice that they have send you to Neptune. I think it's in the VG regulations to have AIS on. If not, good seamanship (colregs) will mean to have the AIS on, always. Unless the electrics have burnt out and/or the battery gone.
+1 Who would willingly take that risk, especially at night?

AIS Antenna part of the defective masthead unit?

 
The GFS, CMC and WW3 weather models all pretty much agree with each other for the next 48 hr, which is bad news for HB. AT really needed the high pressure to stay where it is for 48hr so he would have a big corner to cut and minimal time on port. Alternately it could move a little north and he could then tack early and sail around the bottom of it. But the H going to smear itself to the north, but with strong easterlies in the bay of Bisque so no southern route will be possible for 96h at least. So there is now less of a corner to cut followed by significant time on port.

HB should be able to gain a bit in the next 24h by taking a more easterly course but maintaining similar or higher boat speed, but that will only get him within 50nm , then there is no obvious way through. Although there is still another light wind transition and he's done well on the last 2 or 3 of those, so that could be worth another 30nm ish.

Best scenario I can see for HB is +/- 20nm to ALC with 200nm remaining... on port... but cracked off rather than fully up hill... in 20ish TWS. Going to be awesome! Also I think we are going to see some heli shots of HB with his starboard foil stub fully deployed to get some lift and damn the drag!

 

huey 2

Super Anarchist
3,388
1,617
syd
wow ... what a f.... bloody amayzing race .. loving the data and all the work everyone has put in that have made this incredible race Thanks from the Heart

now watching the world on water update jan 12 half hour update with the fantastic file footage of HB creaming it..!!! still catching up ...!!!......with the other half of the screen showing gis ee absolutely hero effort

now only 85.4 miles between the guys in the lead awesome wow

but to everyone on the race track cheers what an event

 

huey 2

Super Anarchist
3,388
1,617
syd
just imagine if hb still had the foil stirling effort without it

and as the footage of wow just said JLC and YE sailing the race within 10 ?? miles of each other

 

stief

Super Anarchist
8,118
2,440
Sask Canada
[snip] Best scenario I can see for HB is +/- 20nm to ALC with 200nm remaining... on port... but cracked off rather than fully up hill... in 20ish TWS. Going to be awesome! Also I think we are going to see some heli shots of HB with his starboard foil stub fully deployed to get some lift and damn the drag!
Fun to see a stub deployed indeed. As for the 20 nm, that's what I'm seeing now, but since the mileage at the finish keeps shrinking, and Herman keeps checking, and of course, reality keeps on surprising, I'll keep thinking Alex can somehow win.

Still surprised he didn't find benign enough conditions to put in the proper anemometer (and some antenna?), and that he hasn't been picked up on AIS yet. Hope MarineTraffic email notifications are working so I can stop checking the tracker for a while :)

 

Varan

Super Anarchist
6,686
1,859
Am I right in thinking AIS range is 25 miles? IE: When Alex is under that distance to leader, he'll have an advantage
Advantage ALC IMHO. Not knowing where your nearest competitor is heading makes it tough for the leader to cover. 7 hours without knowing if AT is going to cut the corner and sail below the high or continue around above is hard on the leader. Real-time course updates makes it much easier and way less stressful. This is the point of the race I bet AT wishes he had a stealth mode.
 
Am I right in thinking AIS range is 25 miles? IE: When Alex is under that distance to leader, he'll have an advantage
Advantage ALC IMHO. Not knowing where your nearest competitor is heading makes it tough for the leader to cover. 7 hours without knowing if AT is going to cut the corner and sail below the high or continue around above is hard on the leader. Real-time course updates makes it much easier and way less stressful. This is the point of the race I bet AT wishes he had a stealth mode.
I can't see any way through to the south of the high in any model, so I don't think there is even a bees dick of a chance of a big split in the boats. He'd need to go on the wind for 12+h at least and then the angle on the other tack sucks for the next 12+h, only then for the wind to be on the nose all the way into the Bay of Bisque.

But strange HB has not turned up on AIS yet. Perhaps he has been able to get more east so that he is out of range of the land station on the island? Perhaps whatever has stuffed his mast head instruments has also damaged his VHF? Perhaps the tin foil used in his self constructed spare foil is interfering with it?

 

stief

Super Anarchist
8,118
2,440
Sask Canada
Alex just logged a 24 hr run of 527.7 and picked up almost 14 miles on Armel (who is now making better speed it seems).

Sailbydate--I hope I'm wrong wrong wrong about the record. This is crazy good.

 
Last edited by a moderator:

Zander

Member
429
23
On the road
Too close and complicated to call. Considering the very limited data of actual performance we have, it is impossible to predict the outcome, but of course we can’t help ourselves trying :) .

How much of the corner can Thomson cut?

How much will Le Cleac’h try to cover, respond to the conditions around him and deviate from the lines the routing predicts?

How much faster is Hugo Boss when the winds are relatively far aft in the coming 24-36 hours? If at all?

Is Banque pop set up better for upwind?

How much will the broken foil penalty be for Thomson?

Will there be an advantage to Le Cleac’h because he has raced more in the Channel, especially on the French side?

Will life ever be the same after this :blink: ?

 




Top