Vendee Globe 2016?

daffy

Super Anarchist
2,052
2
NW
Too close and complicated to call. Considering the very limited data of actual performance we have, it is impossible to predict the outcome, but of course we can’t help ourselves trying :) .

How much of the corner can Thomson cut?

How much will Le Cleac’h try to cover, respond to the conditions around him and deviate from the lines the routing predicts?

How much faster is Hugo Boss when the winds are relatively far aft in the coming 24-36 hours? If at all?

Is Banque pop set up better for upwind?

+1

How much will the broken foil penalty be for Thomson?

Will there be an advantage to Le Cleac’h because he has raced more in the Channel, especially on the French side?

Will life ever be the same after this :blink: ?
+1
 

Chasm

Super Anarchist
2,518
327
It better is part of the mast head defects. And if so he better has informed the RC when if happened as the SI require.

Not that he passes Armel and then gets protested and consequently dinged a few hours for driving without mandatory gear.

21.6 AIS

The AIS must operate (emission/reception) throughout the whole of the race.
In addition, if the AIS is not functioning, the boat must immediately inform the Race Management. She must still maintain a watch.
And then from the Jury Q&A: 21.6 not keeping watch is a band 1 penalty, 0-6 hours.
 
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It better is part of the mast head defects. And if so he better has informed the RC when if happened as the SI require.

Not that he passes Armel and then gets protested and consequently dinged a few hours for driving without mandatory gear.

21.6 AIS

The AIS must operate (emission/reception) throughout the whole of the race.
In addition, if the AIS is not functioning, the boat must immediately inform the Race Management. She must still maintain a watch.
And then from the Jury Q&A: 21.6 not keeping watch is a band 1 penalty, 0-6 hours.

HB has been out of VHF range of anything since Cape Horn! If it is not working because of a mast head issue, then he probably has no idea. Would it be too cruel of him to ask ALC for a radio check in about 24 hours?

 

littlechay

Super Anarchist
1,118
504
Nelson
Would have thought that the RC would have a paid sub to AIS tracking via satellite and would know the status of AIS transmitters on all the boats. All AIS Tx that I have worked on have some method of indicating their Tx status and VSWR (condition) of the antenna/cable. So if there is a fault both the RC and AT should be aware of it.

Could be he simply wasn't picked up, has different equipment, a different antenna that is not reaching the shore station at that angle of heel... many things can affect propagation including the time of day and they passed the island with about a four hour interval between them.

 

Icedtea

Super Anarchist
Too close and complicated to call. Considering the very limited data of actual performance we have, it is impossible to predict the outcome, but of course we can’t help ourselves trying :) .

How much of the corner can Thomson cut?

How much will Le Cleac’h try to cover, respond to the conditions around him and deviate from the lines the routing predicts?

How much faster is Hugo Boss when the winds are relatively far aft in the coming 24-36 hours? If at all?

Is Banque pop set up better for upwind?

How much will the broken foil penalty be for Thomson?

Will there be an advantage to Le Cleac’h because he has raced more in the Channel, especially on the French side?

Will life ever be the same after this :blink: ?
This is insane- the speeds these guys are managing to clock up are totally unheard of for monos- if only Alex had the second foil!

 

ct800

Member
68
18
--
Weather and routing update 2/2

ETA Jan 19th, +/- 07:00 GMT

Armel in blue dash cutting the corner according to EMWCF, Alex hiking on the LP zone to the (north)west black dash
First of all congrats to Alex Thomson on the new record.

On the other hand in terms of tactics, (based on the paths of the last 24-36 hours) looks like Alex's current goal is to stay on the heels of Armel no matter what.

If he could get within Armel's AIS range (10-15-25? miles), he could make the decisions promptly on when to cut the corner / make the turn at Ushant.

Given it is a match race now, it will be more likely that they might deviate from the optimum route.

ETA: Jan 19th 6:00-8:00 AM UTC ?

 

Alysun

Member
370
4
Australia
This is an incredible Sprint.... after being 800 nm behind in the Pacific.... Alex will be kicking himself for all the "If only I went this way/pushed harder" moments over the past 2 months.

ALC still deserves to win but Alex can have the 24h record to cheer him up :)

 

Chasm

Super Anarchist
2,518
327
What I find notable in the routing by squid on gis.ee/vg is that both Armel and Alex are consistently climbing more east than the routing says for the last 2-3 days IIRC.

Cutting the corner by 20° or so.

Different polars for the foilers or something else?

 
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moody frog

Super Anarchist
4,294
114
Brittany
Weather and routing update 2/2

ETA Jan 19th, +/- 07:00 GMT

Armel in blue dash cutting the corner according to EMWCF, Alex hiking on the LP zone to the (north)west black dash
Thanks Herman for your work.

50 hours ahead we can already see the "tricks" I was mentioning earlier:

Both full lines (not dotted) are getting inside Sein Isle, a worse tidal race than Portland Bill, where tide currents shall be "against" from 1 to 7 UTC on Wednesday.

I do not know if the "routing software" takes this into account. (Pic enclosed)

Projected lines make it tricky at Ile d 'Yeu, too, just before Les Sables.

Definitely ALC has the local knowledge there with so many years of Figaro.

carte_iroise.jpg

carte_iroise.jpg

 

Panoramix

Super Anarchist
When you zoom in the routing software makes Armel go inside "La plate"!

Do you know what's the difference between the dotted line and the full line?

It doesn't seem that the Ushant TSS will bother them, it might just push them to tack a little bit earlier than optimum but they will go through a zone full of fishermen and commercial traffic. Along South Brittany, they might also find crab pots on their way. In Brittany crab pots are unlit.

 
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Boink

Super Anarchist
1,589
779
How much degradation in performance does the routing allow for, when HB tacks onto Port, for an upwind(ish) finish with no foil to deploy?

Does the routing already reflect this issue?

Utterly brilliant finish to an amazing race. Would be so cruel for Armel not to win it (again). Would be utterly brilliant for Alex to pull it off.

Everyone is a winner regardless.

FWIW - Alex will be throwing everything overboard that is not chocolate, he will be wringing the crap out of that boat, put the pressure on Armel, let him sweat on the expectation of the whole of France ( and God forbid he become the first Frenchman to lose the VG to a foreign victor - an Englishman no less...... Allow this concept to brew, steep and ferment) and who knows what might happen.......

There was a little known sailboat race in SF a few years ago. A bunch of Kiwis, with a handy lead only needed one more race win to claim victory...... But didn't. Strangest things happen at sea.

 

Trickypig

Super Anarchist
4,399
124
Australia
I'm expecting the list of anarchists at the bottom of the page to hit a much bigger number in the next 48 hrs or they're not bloody sailors!!

 
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