Vendee Globe 2016?

[WLIS Jibing]

Looks like ALC is finally putting some miles back onto his lead! GO ALC!

 

[stief]

What I find notable in the routing by squid on gis.ee/vg is that both Armel and Alex are consistently climbing more east than the routing says for the last 2-3 days IIRC.

Cutting the corner by 20° or so.

Different polars for the foilers or something else?

Seemed to be tactics. Alex could feint to the east and Armel would have to risk moving closer to the sticky bits in order to cover. Looks to pay off.

As for the polars, Herman has adjusted the polars (as you know), and given the responsiveness of the Remora people, they probably have too. The last few days have given them some great data for refining their polars. Another win for open and cooperative data sharing

Much appreciated. That model makes for a much better thread.

(and thanks to you and Chay for checking on the AIS regs)

 

[stief]

I can see another 24 hrs on this heading before the game of chicken begins.

Hahah. Wondering if Armel will chicken out. Beyou is waiting to pounce.

 

[Renee]

Understandably, if Armel were not win his third VG, it will be a huge disappointment for he and his fans. But for crying out loud already, he "deserves" to win this race as much as any of the other three- and four-timers out there. No more. No less. He has had the great fortune and backing and wonderful luck to demonstrate his masterful skill, focus and experience. His holding the lead this race for so long has been nothing short of amazing. Respect! Yet others out there -- every bit as masterful, some with more experience and who have COME BACK AGAIN after surviving unimaginable circumstances -- are every bit as deserving to cross the finish first. It will be no less "cruel" for them.

Let's keep it real people.

 

[stief]

[snip]It doesn't seem that the Ushant TSS will bother them, it might just push them to tack a little bit earlier than optimum but they will go through a zone full of fishermen and commercial traffic. Along South Brittany, they might also find crab pots on their way. In Brittany crab pots are unlit.

Ouch. Hope the race isn't decided by a Breton fisherman. That would be a no-win situation.

 

[stief]

Weather and routing update 2/2

ETA Jan 19th, +/- 07:00 GMT

Armel in blue dash cutting the corner according to EMWCF, Alex hiking on the LP zone to the (north)west black dash

Thanks Herman for your work.

50 hours ahead we can already see the "tricks" I was mentioning earlier:

Both full lines (not dotted) are getting inside Sein Isle, a worse tidal race than Portland Bill, where tide currents shall be "against" from 1 to 7 UTC on Wednesday.

I do not know if the "routing software" takes this into account. (Pic enclosed)

Projected lines make it tricky at Ile d 'Yeu, too, just before Les Sables.

Definitely ALC has the local knowledge there with so many years of Figaro.

+1

Moody, have you noticed if the 'currents' tab on forss' tracker factor tides too? I suspect the Remora routes might, but that the windytv data wouldn't be timely enough.

 

[GBH]

Allez Armel! May come down to who has the best drugs to keep them awake

 

[Sebastiaan]

Allez Armel! May come down to who has the best drugs to keep them awake

Would anyone know wether there is a doping test at the end?

 

[southerncross]

Interview with L-P in V&V

http://www.voilesetvoiliers.com/course-regate/lauriot-prevost-les-foils-ont-permis-de-faire-le-break-vendee-globe-1/

https://translate.google.com/translate?sl=fr&tl=en&js=y&prev=_t&hl=sv&ie=UTF-8&u=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.voilesetvoiliers.com%2Fcourse-regate%2Flauriot-prevost-les-foils-ont-permis-de-faire-le-break-vendee-globe-1%2F&edit-text=&act=url

Great article. Thanks.

 

[Panoramix]

Understandably, if Armel were not win his third VG, it will be a huge disappointment for he and his fans. But for crying out loud already, he "deserves" to win this race as much as any of the other three- and four-timers out there. No more. No less. He has had the great fortune and backing and wonderful luck to demonstrate his masterful skill, focus and experience. His holding the lead this race for so long has been nothing short of amazing. Respect! Yet others out there -- every bit as masterful, some with more experience and who have COME BACK AGAIN after surviving unimaginable circumstances -- are every bit as deserving to cross the finish first. It will be no less "cruel" for them.

Let's keep it real people.

That's part of the race but I don't think that Armel has been very lucky. His breakaway was not luck, just skillful use of an opportunity that his opponent could have taken. On the other hand bleeding 800 NM as he found a wall was certainly bad luck. The only luck he had is that his opponent with a faster boat lost its advantage on a tack. If he wins he will do so despite not having the best boat at the start. It doesn't stop Alex Thomson being a great skipper, even with a good boat it takes a lot of skill to be where he is.

IMHO the 2 who have been really great sailor this time are Le Cam and Le Cleach.

 

[LionessRacing]

The chauvanism of the fan boys is getting turgid. Time to enjoy the race,for what it is.

 

[ct800]

 

[Panoramix]

Yes, I don't think that we've seen such a tight VG finish. It might end up finishing like the 1978 route du rhum.

 

[nedev]

Not to distract from the match race for the lead, but if the forecast holds, JPD, Le Cam and Yann Ellies are gonna have a spectacular finish with fast downwind sailing in 25+ knots for more than 4 days, all the way from SW of the Azores into the finish!

Could there be some more 24 hour runs close to record pace?? How fast are the top speeds of these boats compared to the leaders?

 

[Car Ramrod]

So potentially a nice current boost for AT.

Not that 1 knot over a couple hours is going to make up the 30nm or so that he'll be behind.

 

[stief]

Weather and routing update 2/2

ETA Jan 19th, +/- 07:00 GMT

Armel in blue dash cutting the corner according to EMWCF, Alex hiking on the LP zone to the (north)west black dash

Thanks Herman for your work.

50 hours ahead we can already see the "tricks" I was mentioning earlier:

Both full lines (not dotted) are getting inside Sein Isle, a worse tidal race than Portland Bill, where tide currents shall be "against" from 1 to 7 UTC on Wednesday.

I do not know if the "routing software" takes this into account. (Pic enclosed)

Projected lines make it tricky at Ile d 'Yeu, too, just before Les Sables.

Definitely ALC has the local knowledge there with so many years of Figaro.

Nice one. AFAIK only the GFS 0.25 degrees windmodel is used for routing by Forss. No tides or currents. It is in the routing software of Armel and Alex though.

Tides

I had a detailed look using the free current GRIBs available and the Harmonics model for tides in France in OpenCPN. Armel is projected to pass Ile de Sein at Jan. 18th, around 19:00 GMT / 20:00 CET. At that moment a 1 knot tidal current is flowing to the NW. In the hours before that up to 1.6 knots. The tide changes around 21:00 CET according to Harmonics at Ile de Sein. After that, you get a bonus up to 1.6 knots going SE. See the screenshot for details. the numbers are current speeds in kts. Black arrows indicate both the direction, and strength. Particle map is on, that's the spaghetti on the screen indicating the primary flows. Bottom-right is LSDO.

Thanks again for checking and posting. FWIW, the "currents' Windytv info does not change in that area when flipping back and forth 12 hrs.

 

[Panoramix]

He is getting there at slack water more or less. There is a very strong current between ile de Sein and Brittany, if the model is accurate enough, you should see it when you zoom in. It is several knots and if the routing is right, Alex should benefit more from it apart from the fact that the chop will be quite bad.

 

[fdsailor1415]

AT still has no AIS..you can see ALC.

 

[Readie1]

Unfortunately it feels like AT is running out of runway... Needs to sail approx 10% faster for the remainder... Is that achievable?

 

[stief]

Some good tidbits from the English Live today http://www.dailymotion.com/video/x58of15_the-vendee-live-of-the-16th-january-vendee-globe_sport

For Heerema followers, see 7:00 . He's near Point Nemo and hasn't seen another boat in the Pacific on his AIS (range "45-50 miles"). Has stopped focusing on the problems, and is concentrating on the boat instead of "fooling around". "Boat is fantastic."--repeated several times.

11:32 Conrad. In pleasant conditions much nice than the South where "everything was trying to kill me". Alex’s record? Breathtaking staying at 24 knots, "absurd!" Surpassing big multi crewed speeds of the past, now doing so solo monohull is incredible.

At 18:05 Guillaume Daumail from the French Live pointed out that Colman is the most featured on the Lives (both languages), even when he is busy fixing something, he always picks up the phone.

At 20:33, Jean LeCam's clack clack clack (camera prompt confirmed) has become #hashtag on twitter. Examples given, and encouragement for others to make and upload more.

Of course, there's stuff about Alex's record and Armel's mind set too.