Vendee Globe 2016?

[stief]

AT still has no AIS..you can see ALC.

Link? Last position I can find is 19 hours ago . . . http://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/details/ships/shipid:3492494/mmsi:228065900/imo:0/vessel:BANQUE_POPULAIRE_8/_:3cde6984bf3089520ca4d04487196542

Interesting that the AIS station recorded peak speeds for Armel of 28.90 knots

 

[moody frog]

Weather and routing update 2/2

ETA Jan 19th, +/- 07:00 GMT

Armel in blue dash cutting the corner according to EMWCF, Alex hiking on the LP zone to the (north)west black dash

Thanks Herman for your work.

50 hours ahead we can already see the "tricks" I was mentioning earlier:

Both full lines (not dotted) are getting inside Sein Isle, a worse tidal race than Portland Bill, where tide currents shall be "against" from 1 to 7 UTC on Wednesday.

I do not know if the "routing software" takes this into account. (Pic enclosed)

Projected lines make it tricky at Ile d 'Yeu, too, just before Les Sables.

Definitely ALC has the local knowledge there with so many years of Figaro.

Nice one. AFAIK only the GFS 0.25 degrees windmodel is used for routing by Forss. No tides or currents. It is in the routing software of Armel and Alex though.

Tides

I had a detailed look using the free current GRIBs available and the Harmonics model for tides in France in OpenCPN. Armel is projected to pass Ile de Sein at Jan. 18th, around 19:00 GMT / 20:00 CET. At that moment a 1 knot tidal current is flowing to the NW. In the hours before that up to 1.6 knots. The tide changes around 21:00 CET according to Harmonics at Ile de Sein. After that, you get a bonus up to 1.6 knots going SE. See the screenshot for details. the numbers are current speeds in kts. Black arrows indicate both the direction, and strength. Particle map is on, that's the spaghetti on the screen indicating the primary flows. Bottom-right is LSDO.

Great detailing thanks !

F.Y.I :- In between island and further west beacon is an absolute no-go

- current is stronger in between island and mainland.

 

[ArchimeDesign]

FWIW, I've calculated the number of tacks since the start (roughly). Based upon the tracks (http://vg2016.regadata.org/vg2016.kmz) of 12.00 today.

A "tack" counts when the heading between two positions on the track (with one intermediate point) changes more than 40 degrees. The distance travelled is simplified to 25000-DTF (today 12.00)

Grumpy Pieter is definitely the tack master (autopilot issues?), I would have expected AT tacked much more than ALC

 

[stevevyse]

Latest onboard video from Alex explains he has play in the steering which is taking all his attention. Worried about involuntary gybe. Also talk of his AIS problems, indicating that he has a fix which he will try to apply this afternoon.

 

[stief]

Latest onboard video from Alex explains he has play in the steering which is taking all his attention. Worried about involuntary gybe. Also talk of his AIS problems, indicating that he has a fix which he will try to apply this afternoon.

Found it--thanks for the heads-up

 

[stief]

FWIW, I've calculated the number of tacks since the start (roughly). Based upon the tracks (http://vg2016.regadata.org/vg2016.kmz) of 12.00 today.

A "tack" counts when the heading between two positions on the track (with one intermediate point) changes more than 40 degrees. The distance travelled is simplified to 25000-DTF (today 12.00)

Grumpy Pieter is definitely the tack master (autopilot issues?), I would have expected AT tacked much more than ALC

Ah--thanks, that's now readable. Wondered about the table pasting

 

[Alex_]

No sign of Hugo Boss on AIS?

I think Hugo Boss must have their AIS transponder turned off. I searched Liveship but could not find her.ALC up to 24 knots now...rootin' for Alex though

Hell no. As stated earlier in the thread above, it's f*cking busy there with cargo ships that don't even notice that they have send you to Neptune. I think it's in the VG regulations to have AIS on. If not, good seamanship (colregs) will mean to have the AIS on, always. Unless the electrics have burnt out and/or the battery gone.

Alex just explained his AIS is not working properly, others can't see him ( one ship last night was only 1 mile away and didnt see him) and his receiving range looks very limited too

 

[scopas]

Ferry Booked Hotel Booked

Insurance sorted

I'll be there to watch the end game.

Can't wait to see the drama unfold first hand in LSD

 

[db7]

What I find notable in the routing by squid on gis.ee/vg is that both Armel and Alex are consistently climbing more east than the routing says for the last 2-3 days IIRC.

Cutting the corner by 20° or so.

Different polars for the foilers or something else?

Seemed to be tactics. Alex could feint to the east and Armel would have to risk moving closer to the sticky bits in order to cover. Looks to pay off.

As for the polars, Herman has adjusted the polars (as you know), and given the responsiveness of the Remora people, they probably have too. The last few days have given them some great data for refining their polars. Another win for open and cooperative data sharing

Much appreciated. That model makes for a much better thread.

(and thanks to you and Chay for checking on the AIS regs)

The corner cutting could just be a response to the variance between the forecast and what they are actually experiencing out there.

That being said, I am wondering how much the routing takes into account sea state? It seems that it may be advantageous to give up a bit of wind for a smoother ride for the foils to optimize speed. That may account for some of the corner cutting.

It looks like AT has a very narrow band of windspeed/conditions under which his boat is faster. Mid/High teens, lower twenties - advantage AT, now that they are into mid twenties the performance gap is gone.

 

[db7]

Weather and routing update 2/2

ETA Jan 19th, +/- 07:00 GMT

Armel in blue dash cutting the corner according to EMWCF, Alex hiking on the LP zone to the (north)west black dash

Thanks Herman for your work.

50 hours ahead we can already see the "tricks" I was mentioning earlier:

Both full lines (not dotted) are getting inside Sein Isle, a worse tidal race than Portland Bill, where tide currents shall be "against" from 1 to 7 UTC on Wednesday.

I do not know if the "routing software" takes this into account. (Pic enclosed)

Projected lines make it tricky at Ile d 'Yeu, too, just before Les Sables.

Definitely ALC has the local knowledge there with so many years of Figaro.

Nice one. AFAIK only the GFS 0.25 degrees windmodel is used for routing by Forss. No tides or currents. It is in the routing software of Armel and Alex though.

Tides

I had a detailed look using the free current GRIBs available and the Harmonics model for tides in France in OpenCPN. Armel is projected to pass Ile de Sein at Jan. 18th, around 19:00 GMT / 20:00 CET. At that moment a 1 knot tidal current is flowing to the NW. In the hours before that up to 1.6 knots. The tide changes around 21:00 CET according to Harmonics at Ile de Sein. After that, you get a bonus up to 1.6 knots going SE. See the screenshot for details. the numbers are current speeds in kts. Black arrows indicate both the direction, and strength. Particle map is on, that's the spaghetti on the screen indicating the primary flows. Bottom-right is LSDO.

Thanks again for checking and posting. FWIW, the "currents' Windytv info does not change in that area when flipping back and forth 12 hrs.

I think the Windytv ocean current data only gets a new forecast weekly, maybe twice a week. It doesn't look like it deals with tides.

 

[stief]

Latest onboard video from Alex explains he has play in the steering which is taking all his attention. Worried about involuntary gybe. Also talk of his AIS problems, indicating that he has a fix which he will try to apply this afternoon.

Posted a message this morning at the FB page of Alex regarding his possible malfunctioning AIS, et voila, the man answers himself! Kudos. AIS visibility range of HB for others ships is less than 3 nm which is quite dangerous, as Alex is flying atm and hence the prio to do repairs on that. Nice side effect; SA can track him later at the coast hopefully.

Cool. Impressive he acknowledged the issue. We know the ATR team browses the forum and Alex has repeatedly said he reads the FB messages (no idea how he finds the time!). Chay earlier pointed out it should be easy to check for transmission, but . . . . as you say, we can hope to follow them almost realtime when they close the coast.

Off to check when the VG tracker switches to different update skeds. Something about when boats are x-miles before the finish . . .

Ah--maybe hourly within 200 miles. SI 21.3.2 Polling of rankings and positions during the race

Until 15h UT on 6th November, when passing the main capes on the course, then from within 200 miles of the finishing line, the positions and/or the distances to the finish of the boats approaching Les Sables d’Olonne may be communicated by Race Management every hour on the race website, to the press and to the public.

 

[Panoramix]

Latest onboard video from Alex explains he has play in the steering which is taking all his attention. Worried about involuntary gybe. Also talk of his AIS problems, indicating that he has a fix which he will try to apply this afternoon.

Found it--thanks for the heads-up

I am just amazed how he can look so relax while sailing at 20 knots with play in his rudder. I would be really anxious. If he actually needs to stop the boat to repair IMHO it is game over for the win. He might be bluffing though, that would be fair game in my books, he needs everything on his side to win.

 

[Sailbydate]

Truly amazing sailing up front by Armel and Alex. 520nm+ in 24hrs for both of them. Just think about that. Awesome.

 

[stief]

So although Alex reduced the DTF this sked, he's actually 90 nm behind and Armel has extended. Darn. Have to rely on a chance to cut the corner or Armel dropping off the virtual ledge they are sailing.

Al the others look 'OK.' JP DIck's slowdown yesterday was maybe because of weed (from other's comments http://www.vendeeglobe.org/en/news/18143/photo-finish-predicted-in-vendee-globe-thriller )

 

[Varan]

Truly amazing sailing up front by Armel and Alex. 520nm+ in 24hrs for both of them. Just think about that. Awesome.

Pretty much crushed any hope for Jeremie moving up a notch.

 

[jack_sparrow]

I think the weather models though all nearly aligned are wrong. Watch for the changes over the next 72 hours. So contrary to most people's thinking Alex's passing lane is not by cutting the corner but by going wide before the last runway. I have only been wrong once ....and that was when I thought I was wrong.

 

[RKoch]

Jeremie closed the gap a lot coming up the Atlantic, but he's still too far back to catch the leading pair at this point, barring an extreme mishap.

AT needs to be a bit closer to ALC at this point to be in a position to steal a win. Doesn't appear likely to happen.

 

[db7]

So although Alex reduced the DTF this sked, he's actually 90 nm behind and Armel has extended. Darn. Have to rely on a chance to cut the corner or Armel dropping off the virtual ledge they are sailing.

Al the others look 'OK.' JP DIck's slowdown yesterday was maybe because of weed (from other's comments http://www.vendeeglobe.org/en/news/18143/photo-finish-predicted-in-vendee-globe-thriller )

Or a tactical error, or breakage, or a UFO, or crash gybe, or a f/u during a tack.... It is close enough that only the status quo gives BP comfort. If the models were right we wouldn't have to race to find the winner. As Murray Walker was wont to say,

"Anything can happen, and it usually does."

 

[stief]

So although Alex reduced the DTF this sked, he's actually 90 nm behind and Armel has extended. Darn. Have to rely on a chance to cut the corner or Armel dropping off the virtual ledge they are sailing.

Al the others look 'OK.' JP DIck's slowdown yesterday was maybe because of weed (from other's comments http://www.vendeeglobe.org/en/news/18143/photo-finish-predicted-in-vendee-globe-thriller )

Or a tactical error, or breakage, or a UFO, or crash gybe, or a f/u during a tack.... It is close enough that only the status quo gives BP comfort. If the models were right we wouldn't have to race to find the winner. As Murray Walker was wont to say,

"Anything can happen, and it usually does."

So true. Your point earlier about sailing flatter water is also part of the many pitfalls they face. Too many to list. Great race to follow.

And JP--hope you're right, no--wrong, no . . .

 

[Varan]

All this nonsense about passing lanes. I agree AT's fastest route may indeed be to stay wide, but passing is a whole different story, virtually requiring mechanical or other failure by ALC. ALC has led now for six weeks, and AT has come close and has had opportunities, but actually passing a competitor of ALC caliber is next to impossible at this stage. That high, however, does present an interesting twist. If it were to swallow one of them, game over at the bottom of ninth with bases loaded.

Back to Jeremie... He has never appeared to have the same top end as the leaders. When he picks up the breeze, will he manage a 500 mile 24 hour run? Probably no reason too with a comfy grip on 3rd.