Vendee Globe 2020

terrafirma

Super Anarchist
7,537
1,291
Melbourne
It's irrational, but I'm calling it. He's got a lead, he's got a boat that can get around, he's been around more than anyone else in this race (I think?), throw in an attrition coefficient and maybe it's not that unlikely... whatever, it's unlikely but I'm still calling it :)  . Alex got second in a foiling boat without a foil. 
The attrition coefficient has more to do with it. He dropped 30 miles to Alex during the last sked period. The foilers only need a couple of decent 24 hour runs to put Le Cam behind them IMO. Le Cam seems to be sailing the smartest with routing and positioning so that alone could get him up there or keep him there etc?

 

Hitchhiker

Hoopy Frood
4,528
1,208
Saquo-Pilia Hensha
The last seven hours for HB was avg speed of 16.14.  Cam was 12.28. Are these prime conditions for a foiler? The race to the equator closes up a little.  But, will no doubt change again.

Vendee20.JPG

 

JoeBleaux

Member
198
32
New Orleans
The attrition coefficient has more to do with it. He dropped 30 miles to Alex during the last sked period. The foilers only need a couple of decent 24 hour runs to put Le Cam behind them IMO. Le Cam seems to be sailing the smartest with routing and positioning so that alone could get him up there or keep him there etc?
Concur... but while Le Cam lost out to Boss he didn't to the other foilers. It's likely they're in different winds, if Cam can get a system ahead well see... but like you said the attrition coefficient isn't taken lightly(Boss is certainly part of this). I love  le Cam's story so I'm particularly partial. Go Alex and the Le Cam!

 

rico

Member
429
23
My my, such great story lines. Old vs new boats, EN vs FR at the front, F vs M, and on and on. Loving this race, yet feeling sad for JB (Charal).

@Laurent, thanks for linking to the French Daily a few pages ago. Hoping I can keep finding them here: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC0pdv_hgDx7oTT3kJAMnd5A .  Us in Canada want both versions (country and western :), yet Google doesn't know that yet. I love Kito's description of HB as a "war machine". Andi is good but I like Helene's hosting a lot - worth watching for anglos like me.

Much more to come.  I thank the IMOCA world and VG for this solace and source of sanity this winter. So glad you made the race happen.

 

Rainier

Member
201
68
Every boat out there is one UFO away from retiring....

Boris's post about how they set a speed to set their course was very enlightening.  I think HB is doing a really good job of just heading to the next breeze and shaving some corners.  It could also be that his foils are more well rounded(get it?) and once they hit the SO the other foils will be better.  At this rate it might not matter....

 

JoeBleaux

Member
198
32
New Orleans
Every boat out there is one UFO away from retiring....

Boris's post about how they set a speed to set their course was very enlightening.  I think HB is doing a really good job of just heading to the next breeze and shaving some corners.  It could also be that his foils are more well rounded(get it?) and once they hit the SO the other foils will be better.  At this rate it might not matter....
 I think the Boss Foils are already better, hence his ability to soak lower in most conditions. SO will tell the true story. 

 

SCARECROW

Super Anarchist
6,002
689
Melbourne, Aus
Every boat out there is one UFO away from retiring....

Boris's post about how they set a speed to set their course was very enlightening.  I think HB is doing a really good job of just heading to the next breeze and shaving some corners.  It could also be that his foils are more well rounded(get it?) and once they hit the SO the other foils will be better.  At this rate it might not matter....
Based upon comments by Alex and others If anything his foils will be better in the southern ocean then the others who have tried to maintain same form of across and upwind performance.  So basically he’s banking on getting far enough ahead by Cape Horn that the others can’t catch him.  

 

tDot

Member
233
127
BC
JLC has had an amazing race, I'm pulling for him to do well. But looking at the conditions in the next 72 hours, it wouldn't surprise me if some or the foilers start passing him before the Cape of Good Hope. The speed that the foilers are able to maintain is just too great.  The west side of the Doldrums look to have more pressure then normal and with the 4-6 day outlook showing an increase in pressure, Le Cam could be passed before the turn at Brazil. (Assuming some of the foilers make it out of the wind hole that's developing).   But Charlie Dalin pulling 16knots in 9 knots of breeze is pretty awesome.

Coming back up the Atlantic will play to JLC's strengths. If the foilers can't put enough distance between themselves and JLC, before Cape Horn, he may be able to pick a few off.

 

terrafirma

Super Anarchist
7,537
1,291
Melbourne
Concur... but while Le Cam lost out to Boss he didn't to the other foilers. It's likely they're in different winds, if Cam can get a system ahead well see... but like you said the attrition coefficient isn't taken lightly(Boss is certainly part of this). I love  le Cam's story so I'm particularly partial. Go Alex and the Le Cam!
100% completely agree and share your love for Le Cam's story..! As I do Alex for reasons previously mentioned. At the moment and according to the wind overlay if that's accurate Alex should be able to set the boat up, lock her in on Auto, and catch up on some rest/sleep and some media work. He has hit the pressure before the other foilers and predictably stretched away on Le Cam.  He may stretch further looking at the weather. The doldrums looking not too bad ATM but they aren't there yet.!  :)

 

Zander

Member
429
23
On the road
It's irrational, but I'm calling it. He's got a lead, he's got a boat that can get around, he's been around more than anyone else in this race (I think?), throw in an attrition coefficient and maybe it's not that unlikely... whatever, it's unlikely but I'm still calling it :)  . Alex got second in a foiling boat without a foil. 
Love the race Le Cam is sailing, but fully expect more of the foilers to overtake him before Cape of good hope. Barring a hell of a lot lot of boats breaking, he should not have a shot at the podium places. He is more than capable of beating some of the foilers, but not the top bunch. Last race he was the second non-foiler (by a very, very slim margin), but took 80 days to get round which was 6 days slower than the winner. This time, the fastest boats expect to be back in around 70 days, hard to see where Yes we Cam will find that sort of performance gain.

Alex Thomson has a nice little buffer to the other latest gen boats, but that could deflate fast in the doldrums if he is unlucky. It seems to be a usual pattern with him that he is a bit slow and seeming disorganised the first 36 hours out of Les Sabe only to sail really well after the biscay.

Apivia's more conservative approach is interesting. Lets see how that works out.

 

minca3

Member
280
255
Ruyant gained ~13nm on AT between the last updates. That might be due to lighter wind for HB or LinkedOut is not a slow boat either

 

DVV

Member
89
60
Italy
60 is the new 30..

You call them foils, but they are just like those little wheels kids use to learn bicycling (dunno the eng term)

Rookies... :)

I love King Le Cam

 

JoeBleaux

Member
198
32
New Orleans
Just wondering, in the history of this long race has it ever been won by the leader at this stage?
I feel like Thompson & Armel being somewhat well sorted by this point, but that could be my imagination. I remember Alex sailing right through a group of islands to take the lead... was it the Cape Verdes of something further North?




 





 

 




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