Vendee Globe 2020

huey 2

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Charlie has done the old soak down wind....direct.  he has a few miles up his sleeve and he goes directly closer to his goal....even if its for a short time and that it is slower but works when the wind is up....  cause no expects this...   he is elusive and he might be playing with the minds of the others.   or its a glitch in the tracker

 
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Herman

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The Netherlands
Weather update

The big picture is in pic #1 with the NOAA OPC synoptic map overlay for the North Atlantic at the 25th 06 UTC. The Azores HP is expanding NE. The LP north of the fleet has arrived at Cabo Finisterre, accompanying through located west and east of that LP. Far west of the fleet the Atlantic is a big mess with LP’s, gales and hurricane force winds. Luckily, these are far enough of the fleet. The closest LP is moving NE towards Iceland. 

The big picture #2 for the 26th 12 UTC is that the Azores HP has moved northeast. The HP over the finish has moved east into France. West of the fleet several LP’s creating 6 to 7 Bft wind north of the Azores which would impact the most western boats of the fleet, with 35 kts wind. Moving east. Yellow arrows indicate projected boat positions.

The big picture for the 27th 00 UTC is in pic #3. One LP with cold front will move slowly northeast. The LP itself located north of the Azores, and the cold front over the Azores, 35-45 kts wind expected over the Azores. 
So the forecast for the Bay of Biscayne and further north at the 27th 00 UTC has improved a lot, now the forecasted HP’s over France and Spain are projected to stay there. And the LP is forecasted further away at the Atlantic. The isobars indicate nice sailing weather (4 Bft) instead of the 5 or 6 Bft earlier. That is good news for the exhausted sailors.

The sea state is in pic # 4. All boats in the top-9 in 3 and a bit meters according to ECMWF and NOAA WW-3 models. The 5 meter wave frontier is moving east on the Atlantic due the various LP’s and gales. But these waves are still far away, 500 nm west of the most western skipper Dutreux. If Dutreux and Le Cam go north before heading east, they could get some 5+ meters on the 26th. Unless they head earlier east. Waves in the Bay of Biscay are settling from current 3 meters to 2 meters in the morning of the 26th.

Pic #5 has the weather routing table, and pic # 6 the adjusted finish times. All ETA’s have been pushed back a couple of hours later. That would be the lighter wind conditions now projected all the way up towards the finish. Dalin now projected to beat Burton to the finish with 2,5 hours, and grabbing 2nd ranking. Herrmann projected to arrive 4 hrs later than Burton, grabbing 1st ranking. Bestaven grabbing 3rd after correction. Burton 4th atm. Four boats within 5 hrs delta finish time after compensation, so the final results stay very, very close atm. 

pic 1 routing top-5 and NOAA overlay 25-01-21 V3.jpg

pic 2 projections 26th 12 UTC .jpg

pic 3 projections 27th 00UTC 25-01-21.jpg

pic 4 Sea state 25-0-21 NOAA WW3.jpg

pic 5 weather routing table 25-01-21.png

pic 6 VG ranking after time compensations 25-01-21.png

 

TheDragon

Super Anarchist
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1,593
East central Illinois
I wonder if and when they will start hand steering to get every bit of soaking towards the finish line they can extract from these boats. It's all about VMG now in these downwind conditions all the way to the line.

Over the past 4 hours Dalin on starboard is still able to maintain higher speed than both Burton and Boris, and that's his weak side. Pretty impressive.

 

stief

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Thanks Herman. Interesting how that shows Yannick is still worth watching. (aside: shouldn't  JLC be 16.25 hrs?)

 
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Herman

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Thanks Herman. Interesting how that shows Yannick is still worth watching. (aside: shouldn't  JLC be 16.25 hrs?)
Thanks Stief, I have made a typo in the time compensation for Le Cam, he was awarded 16,25 and not 18,25 deduction. That would put Ruyant in 5th and JLC in 6th ranking. 

And Bestaven is certainly worth watching, he is only 45 minutes later projected than Dalin atm. Which is too close to call.

pic 6 VG ranking after time compensations 25-01-21 V2.png

 

pbenett

New member
On Instagram Ambrogio Beccaria, Mini Transat winner and dominator of the class, has made a simulation, and projects a Maitre Coq win; 2 Sea Explorer 1.35 h; 3 Apivia 2.40h; 4 Bureau Valle 3.40 h. Very close between those four, the others further back.

 

stief

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Snowden

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UK
probably reckons he is OK on battery power to the finish, running the engine to burn off excess fuel and hand steering more?

 

stief

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Sask Canada
Clarisse update: ETA Feb 3

"Clarice is looking forward to arriving soon, but she must not be too impatient"

"According to my routings, Clarisse could arrive in Les Sables-d'Olonne on February 3. It is a deadline that is both near and far. Clarisse is looking forward to finishing it soon, she touches her dream with her finger, but she must not be too impatient. She remains vigilant and focused. It is currently off Cape Verde, the road is still damn long. A lot can happen. At the end of the round the world trip, the machines are worn out, so are the sailors. We must ensure that the boat's bobos do not get worse. We have already seen dismasting or other serious damage in the last days of a Vendée Globe. This must be avoided at all costs. Within the team, we are both happy with the progress made and vigilant. "
more at https://www.voile.banquepopulaire.fr/news/vendee-globe-clarisse-pourrait-arriver-le-3-fevrier-aux-sables-dolonne

 

b3nharris

Member
89
101
Narnia
Only realised the other day (after killing time looking at Pip's pages on her sponsors website) that Clarisse is easily on track to set a new female monohull single-handed non-stop RTW record. AFAIK it's still held by Ellen Mcarthur: https://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vendée_Globe#Les_meilleurs_temps_féminins

That's a pretty notable achievement. Also probably represents considerable ROI for her sponsor as there'll be more coverage of that achievement than other mid-fleet boats.

 
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