Vendee Globe 2020

Herman

Super Anarchist
1,911
980
The Netherlands
Here we go. Weather routing for Dutreux as current nr 1 and Tripon as most western boat.

Input

  • GFS wind
  • FNMOC waves
  • NOAA cyclone overlay with Theta projected
  • Imoca 60 polars

Output:

  • Both projected weather tracks have red in them, indicating rough sailing. As both routes have 40 kts steady winds in them, that is not a surprise.
  • After the front, some needed easy conditions are projected for both routes (green track).
  • The western boat (Tripon) would be quicker at the Azores than Dutreux.
  • Catching the top left quadrant of Theta could make you king 

image.png

theta 10-11-20.png

 

ague

Member
77
34
Thanks for posting!  Incredible.  I don't know what I am more amazed with.  The fact that he managed to eat a good bit with all of that slamming, or the fact that he didn't spill a drop of his meal.  Whatever he had in that bowl must have been thick (but actually looked pretty tasty).  
 shepherd's pie

 

Hitchhiker

Hoopy Frood
4,675
1,319
Saquo-Pilia Hensha
What do the routing wizards think, the northern boats punch through the front, start to make South toward the Canaries and then catch the back side of the TD? Adds a lot of miles west but my simpleton guesses looks like it keeps them in the wind and at worst reaching and mostly to the stern where they like it.

I really enjoy the armchair routing guessing. 
Three routings with Omia, Apivia and Boss.  Omia is at 110% of the last gen Imoca polars.  Apivia and Boss at 135%.  Complete random guesstimations of course and still being tweaked for TWA. Completely random finish line after 63 hours of racing.

Note:  Theta is going to have a big influence on routing in 20 hours or so.

Vendee20.JPG

 
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Schakel

Dayboat sailor
Here we go. Weather routing for Dutreux as current nr 1 and Tripon as most western boat.

Input

  • GFS wind
  • FNMOC waves
  • NOAA cyclone overlay with Theta projected
  • Imoca 60 polars

Output:

  • Both projected weather tracks have red in them, indicating rough sailing. As both routes have 40 kts steady winds in them, that is not a surprise.
  • After the front, some needed easy conditions are projected for both routes (green track).
  • The western boat (Tripon) would be quicker at the Azores than Dutreux.
  • Catching the top left quadrant of Theta could make you king 

View attachment 404518
Charal Apivia and PRB are in best position,
It's another itteration.

The top left quadrant of Theta low pressure is far away and it's moving

No ORc 2 racing this year or did you manage to escape?

 

Varan

Super Anarchist
6,688
1,863
Having invested in the west, I'm hoping see some speed benchmarks from l'occitane and linked out, provided they stay in one piece. And how about prb? Hanging with the big dogs.

 

minca3

Member
290
265
Having invested in the west, I'm hoping see some speed benchmarks from l'occitane and linked out, provided they stay in one piece. And how about prb? Hanging with the big dogs.
watched the onboard video of Boris Herrman, in the video he said he could go 25- 27 knots in these conditions but chose to slow down to 15.5 knots in order to not break the boat.  Guess we won't see any speed records any time soon ...

 

stief

Super Anarchist
8,118
2,440
Sask Canada
still being tweaked for TWA
True that. 

On the Bar-karate podcast, Nick Bice got Andrew Cape  talking (about 27 minute mark) about TWAs for the foilers. 90-110 is the worst; but after that foil designs will probably show major variation for each 5º. 

So, Cape confirms: "still being tweaked" ;)  

(also, expecting a windier Souther Ocean this cycle, and that the conventional race strategy of win it in the Atlantic, then cover in the SO is reversed for the foilers, since in the SO is where the foilers will catch up)

edit: use Orma polars?  :p

The new boats are very fast upwind from 55 to 60 degrees TWA up to 130 TWA much faster than before and really similar speeds and angles to the ORMA 60 multihulls we had 12 or 15 years ago
from Christian Dumard

 
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loneshark64

Super Anarchist
1,515
1,351
Maine, USA
True that. 

On the Bar-karate podcast, Nick Bice got Andrew Cape  talking (about 27 minute mark) about TWAs for the foilers. 90-110 is the worst; but after that foil designs will probably show major variation for each 5º. 

So, Cape confirms: "still being tweaked" ;)  

(also, expecting a windier Souther Ocean this cycle, and that the conventional race strategy of win it in the Atlantic, then cover in the SO is reversed for the foilers, since in the SO is where the foilers will catch up)
Yes I found that interesting, he put the race 100% to speed of the foiling boats in the southern ocean and was very, very high on the capability of HB. 

 

Miffy

Super Anarchist
3,834
1,700
Something must be wrong on Charal - looks like he's reversing course... another entanglement? 

Apivia, LinkedOut, Arkea, PRB, Hugo Boss and Maliza gonna put in serious miles on the rest. BP still hanging on.

Edit - ah nevermind it was a glitch in the matrix

 
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stief

Super Anarchist
8,118
2,440
Sask Canada
btw, with pre-race routing from Cape for Alex, and (IIRC), Marcel Trieste for Charal, Christian Dumard for Thomas Ruyant and Armel Tripon, is Vilas helping too?

Big names.

 

XTR

Member
238
17
It's going to be interesting to see how far west they go to get behind the storm.  I seem to remember last time someone sailed through the Azores getting south.  Going to be  sketchy for the  next few days. 

 

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