Earlier I typed that the boats are arriving at Theta in the night from Friday to Saturday, but the Theta-party starts already Friday morning. My error. After fixing the weather fax I can overlay again the projected sea state too. Which is horrible behind Theta, as can be expected. The worst part is projected 8 meter significant waves, see the red arrow on the map where it is worst. See the orange isochrone lines on the map for 1 meter sig waves distances. The blue numbers indicate the sig wave heigths, the average height of the highest one-third of the waves. There are partially waves (black arrows) against wind too in the NW quadrant.
The tricky part is that you don't want to get caught in the up to 40 (GFS/EMWCF) kt steady winds, or 55 kt according to NOAA, centre of the tropical cyclone. With wind gusts up to 50 kts (GFS/EMWCF) or 65 kt (NOAA). But if you are too slow, you end up in that 8 meter significant wave sea state building up behind the eye. So getting between the hammer and the anvil is key. This is the first time that I am trying to make up a route for a fleet through a TC, and it is just scaring me from behind a desktop.
See the arrow for the projected 12:00 UTC position of Thompson, just behind the eye, in the first picture with GFS wind barbs and pressure. The second picture is a double overlay of the NOAA projected path of Theta and the sea state without the pressure isochrones or windbarbs.
The third picture show the EMWCF forecast for Friday 11:00 CET as overlay in OpenCPN with the NOAA sea state and the fleet in the north @ 22:30 CET today, to get an impression of the size of the thing. And the very small corridor between the projected eye and the wind building up sig waves behind it.
But where is the eye of the tiger? EMWCF projects the centre of the eye 46 nm further to the NNE compared to GFS. See picture 4. Roll a dice where it will be actually, and set course accordingly..
Now off to bed, it is going to be an interesting day tomorrow.
Those of you who have a little more to do with the sailors. How much time would the guys in the better funded teams (Hugo Boss, Charal etc) who have known for the last 3 years that they had sponsors in place and were well enough funded to have "people" doing stuff for them have spent sitting in front of the computer for the last few years virtual racing themselves?