VOR Leg 7

[josselin]

very close racing for sure. for camper 15 miles out of 150miles to be caught by Tele, but tele would need 10% speed difference, not sure the botin design is so slow especially if light breeze at the end.

By the way : Go GP4!

 

[clamslapper]

Thanks to the right wind angle, G4 is faster than I thought they would be; if they carry on at this speed, they can win it. I would feel a bit sorry for AD but hey G4 had a leg win stolen by light winds at the end of leg 2 and a mast fall as they were winning leg 5 so that wouldn't be too bad on the Karma side of things from a G4 perspective!

I doubt they can pass ADOR. I make out ADOR to be 68 nm off the point at the river mouth, and G4 82 nm. That means that G4 has 20% more ground to cover. Can G4 go faster than ADOR? Sure. But 20% faster? I seriously doubt it, unless the wind really dies, in which case G4's beam reach may work a lot better than the broader reach that ADOR naturally has to assume. That being said, the wind is forecast to back somewhat before they get there, if it does ADOR will be handcuffed by having to sail really deep. So there's at least a chance.

Man, those skips must be absolutely caning those boats for the last hundredth of a knot!

 

[Tony-F18]

If you divide the 20% between the boats it suddenly isnt that much anymore.

 

[Heriberto]

Groupama was "winning" leg 5 when their mast went down? I realize the G4 fans have been out in force for the last 12 hours, but let's not get carried away here. They were crossing tacks with Puma when the mast went down and, at best, in "a position to win" leg 4.

Ok but they were ahead, controlling Puma and had been ahead for a very long time.

Watch the tracker. G4 and Puma were swapping the lead since just north of the Falklands. G4 last got in front of Puma only 10 hours before their mast broke and weren't "controlling" anybody, they both were watching Tele race up the east and both boats clearly were going to need to break east and cover.

Their breakage itself was the lucky karma god card of all mast breakage lucky karma god cards, because it happened within limping distance of the finish, and with three other competitors knocked out they were able to limp into podium points! Talk about lucking out! If they had Puma or ADOR's karma, it would have happened in the middle of the southern ocean and their entire race would have been shot.

We will never know what would have happened at the finish if G4 hadn't broken their mast, they may well have finished third and Tele winning as Puma and G4 screwed around with each other.

Leg 2 would be a huge stretch to give to G4, they lost their meager lead five days before the finish when they picked the wrong way through a pressure ridge, and there were plenty of passing opportunities left to go, they didn't make it happen.

 

[clamslapper]

GRMA

ADOR

Puma

Camper

Tele

Sanya

Hopefully a nice s*(& fight or two on the way in. More interested in the 0$ VORG fight right now - that one makes the real thing look like parade.

I agree with that order. If it does go down that way, and if I am not mistaken (please correct me if this is wrong), the overall standings would then be:

Groupama 183

Tele 175

Puma 171

Camper 167

ADOR 104

Sanya 32

It certainly sets up G4 to take the whole thing, and since Tele's buoy racing is generally not up to Ken Read's standard, I think there's a good chance that by the start of the next ocean leg, Tele may be in third.

 

[sailmakered]

COOL!!!! The boats have AIS transponders.

My link

 

[TANGO QUEBEC]

Got G4, everyone else stealth?

 

[CARBONINIT]

The wind is shifting towards east. This is good for ADOR.

I'm hoping GRMA will win the whole race, but I really would like ADOR to take this leg. These guys have not had an easy race, and it must be so sweet for them to come out on top here.

Easterly is the prevailing wind down Portugal. As you say they deserve a leg win.

 

[TheDragon]

GP4 just turned theirs on about 20 minutes ago, presumably as they approach the shipping lane in front of them.

Got G4, everyone else stealth?

 

[Kenny Dumas]

Local forecast in Lisbon is 5-8 NNE at 4 am local, with an outgoing tide, will make for a very interesting finish for the last boats.

 

[TheDragon]

Let's just hope they miss the cargo ship they are converging on!

GP4 just turned theirs on about 20 minutes ago, presumably as they approach the shipping lane in front of them.

Got G4, everyone else stealth?

 

[sailmakered]

should cross in less than 5 min

 

[bbl]

Let's just hope they miss the cargo ship they are converging on!

Ah, so that might explain their very low speed and temporary dip north on the live tracker.

 

[richie]

Let's just hope they miss the cargo ship they are converging on!

Ah, so that might explain their very low speed and temporary dip north on the live tracker.

...looks like they just cross in front of the ship...great stuff !!

 

[vtsail]

This is wayy too exciting for an ocean race that I'm not even in.

 

[moody frog]

Let's just hope they miss the cargo ship they are converging on!

Ah, so that might explain their very low speed and temporary dip north on the live tracker.

...looks like they just cross in front of the ship...great stuff !!

Traffic is huge along the coast !!!

 

[wolverine1094]

With the different wind angles these boats are sailing and the prospect of lighter wind as they close on the coast here are my finish predictions:

1 Groupe

2 Abu

3 Puma

4Camp

5Tele

6Sanya

I think it is a good move that Puma is doing right now to get down in the strong wind to position directly in front of Camper. Those 2 boats will be very close at the finish as will Groupe and Abu.

 

[Two Tone]

I think AD might be gybing... Don't think they could get onto GP4's line though...

 

[Dixie]

Perhaps that's why they turned it on - to be sure the ship saw them (not that the ship would divert) ? Is there a rule regarding whether or not to have your AIS on?

 

[wolverine1094]

abu just hit a hole or something...speed @ 4 kts and headed up