War, Interest rates and boat prices?

slug zitski

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I pretty much agree with Slug Z.  Part of the reason may be that it’s much easier to get critical mass for various classes and events.  Everything is within 1000 km  as well as being within a (very roughly)  homogeneous wx/season conditions area.  In the US, you’ve got distinct and different regions well separated as well as disparate prevailing wx and season.  (Such as 3000 miles of continent separating E and W). There are very few boats less than 10-15 yrs old, relatively speaking as US builders tend not to mass produce in the dozens or tens of dozens, at least in larger sizes.  Boat sales may be high here in the US, but that includes all the fishing boats as well as thousands of trailerables for the myriad of lakes, reservoirs, etc and, again, they’re 95% (or more) powerboats.
Ponder this 

one company in the US now owns virtually the entire marine industry 

https://shmarinas.com/locations/

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Ishmael

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Some do, some don’t. I’ve had 2 40’ ers for over 10 years plus a few others I’ve sold off. It’s a vague statement at best. You’ll probably keep the Jongert for a while since it’s an A level yacht. At least I would.
I doubt that boat belongs to Sluggo. He's paid crew at best.

 

Snarley

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One indicator that I watch which tends to indicate a swing in economic activity is freight rates for OTR Van trucks.  This would be rates for a truck that does not have a flatbed or refrigerated trailer.   In the last two weeks there has been a dramatic change in the cost for a non-stop trip.    The cost has gone down dramatically.  In other news Wabash Trailer which builds trailers has indicated that they now have trailers available immediately.  There is no wait.  You can do your own look at stock prices and the reasons why however J.B. Hunt is headed down.  

I have to watch this more closely to make predictions however think of Over The Road (OTR) not local or regional deliveries as a barometer.   If the price falls then a storm is coming.  If it rises then good times ahead.      For those who own a boat that has no specific strong demand I would sell that thing yesterday.  If I had some sort of boat that is and should be in high demand such as a J/70, J/111 or a mint Hinckley I wouldn't let any of this bother me.  Your investment is safe.  

I really need to combine all of this plus news from the Fed but when it comes to sailboats I am seeing an increase in boats that are not OD or are considered less desirable be put up for sale.  Just looking at the SA classifieds and we see an increase in the number of boats for sale at all size ranges but especially at 40 foot+.     I think that the best bet is to save money and wait to see where boat prices are in October. 

 
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slug zitski

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Yes, Safe Harbor has done a nice roll up of larger marinas, but it is inaccurate to say the own the entire marine industry.
They move in and the first thing they do is fire the senior craftsman,  close  the Boatshed  , build a swimming pool then  turn the place into a lifestyle village 

those senior craftsman that got canned are the marine industry 

 

Veeger

Super Anarchist
One indicator that I watch which tends to indicate a swing in economic activity is freight rates for OTR Van trucks.  This would be rates for a truck that does not have a flatbed or refrigerated trailer.   In the last two weeks there has been a dramatic change in the cost for a non-stop trip.    The cost has gone down dramatically.  In other news Wabash Trailer which builds trailers has indicated that they now have trailers available immediately.  There is no wait.  You can do your own look at stock prices and the reasons why however J.B. Hunt is headed down.  

I have to watch this more closely to make predictions however think of Over The Road (OTR) not local or regional deliveries as a barometer.   If the price falls then a storm is coming.  If it rises then good times ahead.      For those who own a boat that has no specific strong demand I would sell that thing yesterday.  If I had some sort of boat that is and should be in high demand such as a J/70, J/111 or a mint Hinckley I wouldn't let any of this bother me.  Your investment is safe.  

I really need to combine all of this plus news from the Fed but when it comes to sailboats I am seeing an increase in boats that are not OD or are considered less desirable be put up for sale.  Just looking at the SA classifieds and we see an increase in the number of boats for sale at all size ranges but especially at 40 foot+.     I think that the best bet is to save money and wait to see where boat prices are in October. 
Economic activity is sliding fast.  Interest rates are rising for house and boat loans.  As the economy falters, jobs start going away, boats become liabilities.  6 months will indeed tell the tale.   (Personally,  I’m kinda hoping the slip wait list suddenly starts to move…)

 

Tomfl

Member
SNIP

Only an idiot would attempt to use financial analysis to justify owning a boat plus pay the attendant absurd costs to maintain, dock and keep it dressed in sails, rigging and accessories but boat owners are infected with a particularly virulent idiocy and, in my case, not borrowing means no boat or less boat. At least I know I’m a hopeless idiot. 
 

And, I have a boat. I win!
 
Growing up my Dad who was a successful doctor had increasingly nice boats which I will always be happy about.  On the other hand my Mom always said it would be cheaper to rent a boat than buy one.  On the other hand I am not sure there is a one size fits all rule about borrowing v paying cash for a boat.

I started a thread in the multihull forum similar to the OP and based on my impression multihulls are hard to find and prices are higher than in the recent past.  Not to mention the long weight time for a new boat.  On the other hand the current economic/political/possible war situation is impossible for me to get my head around.  Just happy I have my Seawind in good shape in a very good wet storage place as hurricane season approaches.

 

Tomfl

Member
Economic activity is sliding fast.  Interest rates are rising for house and boat loans.  As the economy falters, jobs start going away, boats become liabilities.  6 months will indeed tell the tale.   (Personally,  I’m kinda hoping the slip wait list suddenly starts to move…)
The marina where I keep my boat has all the slips full and now is putting boats on the wall that use to be open.

 

slug zitski

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Growing up my Dad who was a successful doctor had increasingly nice boats which I will always be happy about.  On the other hand my Mom always said it would be cheaper to rent a boat than buy one.  On the other hand I am not sure there is a one size fits all rule about borrowing v paying cash for a boat.

I started a thread in the multihull forum similar to the OP and based on my impression multihulls are hard to find and prices are higher than in the recent past.  Not to mention the long weight time for a new boat.  On the other hand the current economic/political/possible war situation is impossible for me to get my head around.  Just happy I have my Seawind in good shape in a very good wet storage place as hurricane season approaches.
Multihulls are not “boats ” they are houses 

multihull prices will follow housing market trends 

 

sunseeker

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They move in and the first thing they do is fire the senior craftsman,  close  the Boatshed  , build a swimming pool then  turn the place into a lifestyle village 

those senior craftsman that got canned are the marine industry 
Those senior craftsman are PART of the marine industry.

 

Bump-n-Grind

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East Coast US inventory is so low that the market hasn't changed a bit. If people start losing their jobs you might see a change in the market - so far that hasn't happened thankfully. 
a lot of people lost their jobs, just not the people that could afford to own (any sort) of boat in the first place.  hence it didn't effect the market all that much. 

 

Parma

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Just looking at the SA classifieds and we see an increase in the number of boats for sale at all size ranges but especially at 40 foot+.    
I'm one of the PITA people that actually checks stuff like this: I looked and did not see any sort of increase in inventory. What I did see was a lot of the same old war horse, glory years, vintage types of boats along with the impression that prices are higher than a year ago. 

Today I would say that there are just as many factors suggesting both higher & lower prices in the future. Unless one has a time machine it's still sell high, buy high or sell low, buy low

 

Cashelmore

Member
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It seems like the stock market, housing, boats, and the price of any other thing depends almost entirely where the Fed puts the cost of money.

If they're serious about fighting inflation, then prices should decline, perhaps substantially.

If they're just paying lip service to fighting inflation, or if they cave as soon as the stock or housing markets drop (as they've done for every decline in the last dozen years), then prices might go down briefly before turning sharply higher when they cave.

 

Snarley

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I'm one of the PITA people that actually checks stuff like this: I looked and did not see any sort of increase in inventory. What I did see was a lot of the same old war horse, glory years, vintage types of boats along with the impression that prices are higher than a year ago. 

Today I would say that there are just as many factors suggesting both higher & lower prices in the future. Unless one has a time machine it's still sell high, buy high or sell low, buy low
As a fellow PITA poster, I must disagree on the number of junky boats especially in the 40-49 foot range. I saw one post holidays and now I count many more.  I must agree that the number of pesos asked for is higher in the year of the Water Tiger than in the year of the Ox.  

However…unlike the other wimpy, sky is falling, sell your Coronado 35 now, now, now posters I am willing to take a self-fulfilling bet.  

I have been looking for a sport boat that my pickup can .... pick up.   The boat must be under 30 feet and under 25 would be really nice.   If I am right that the top of the used boat market cycle was reached on April 9th 2022 at 10:22am EST, I should be very happy on October 11th 2022 as I purchase a nicer boat than I could now.  If I am wrong and the demand for used sailboats, rental dockage, pre worn Mt. Gay hats and eBay foul weather gear has in fact stayed the same or....increased....I shall be sad.  ☹

I thought that responses about the SA unclassy Classifieds being a poor choice to cite would include any number of statistical terms.  Thank you for not going in that direction.

But come on, this has to be the first time ANY poster has brought up freight rates and used boat prices in the same post!  

WE WAIT UNTIL OCTOBER 11TH TO SETTLE THIS...   MAY THE BEST ARMCHAIR BOAT ECONOMIST WIN!!

 
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slug zitski

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It seems like the stock market, housing, boats, and the price of any other thing depends almost entirely where the Fed puts the cost of money.

If they're serious about fighting inflation, then prices should decline, perhaps substantially.

If they're just paying lip service to fighting inflation, or if they cave as soon as the stock or housing markets drop (as they've done for every decline in the last dozen years), then prices might go down briefly before turning sharply higher when they cave.
Yah 

I’ll  agree with that 

at present assets are way way overvalued 

how this corrects is the big question 

a movement in interest rates will defiantly lower demand , it also may crash the entire economy 

we live in dangerous times 

 
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Parma

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Yah 

I’ll  agree with that 

at present assets are way way overvalued 

how this corrects is the big question 

a movement in interest rates will defiantly lower demand , it also may crash the entire economy 

we live in dangerous times 
How defiant are they going to be?

I help people buy & sell expensive assets and even though interest rates are at historic lows all my transactions are all cash.

In other words they have the cash and are intentionally choosing not to borrow money even though many financial advisors might suggest that borrowing money at historic lows would be the smarter choice.

All cash buyers don't care what interest rates are. Raise rates and they still have the cash and they still don't care what interest rates are.

 

slug zitski

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the reason that they are cash buyers is that they cashed in on overvalued assets 

ever since the economy became financialized , around 2008 ..     The overvalued Market has become the economy . 
 

when the market falls it will take everything with it 

perhaps a soft landing can be organized 

Perhaps  they fail 

 
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Parma

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the reason that they are cash buyers is that they cashed in on overvalued assets 

ever since the economy became financialized , around 2008 ..     The overvalued Market has become the economy . 
 

when the market falls it will take everything with it 

perhaps a soft landing can be organized 

Perhaps  they fail 
A lot of assumptions there.

And regardless of whether or not they cashed in on "overvalued assets"  they still have the cash and still don't care what interest rates are.

But I am curious to know how you discovered that their assets were over valued or even that they cashed in on them. Is there an index of some sort that when properly interpreted shows who sold what and why?

 

slug zitski

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A lot of assumptions there.

And regardless of whether or not they cashed in on "overvalued assets"  they still have the cash and still don't care what interest rates are.

But I am curious to know how you discovered that their assets were over valued or even that they cashed in on them. Is there an index of some sort that when properly interpreted shows who sold what and why?
Everything is inflated in value 

https://www.aei.org/op-eds/us-economy-2022-preview-could-the-great-asset-and-credit-bubbles-burst/

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