Weather Anarchy

Rasputin22

Rasputin22

Rasputin22
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justsomeguy! said:
The title of the video had the word "sudden" in it, but we don't know their situation all that well.
Click to expand...
A Mesoscale Convective System (MCS) formed during the night from August 17 to 18 over the northern Balearic Islands and then rapidly moved towards the northeast, hitting Corsica early in the morning. The weather radar images show that the line of thunderstorms gradually arched an became a bow echo with the descent of the mid-level jet on the western flank of the MCS, producing powerful gusts of wind at the surface.[5] The system affected Northern Italy afterward and Austria, all within a 12 hour period.

Météo-France was criticized for only triggering an Orange Vigilance by the morning, after the first reports of wind. Even if, according to some specialists, a numerical weather prediction simulation was predicting such a exceptional event, a spokesman for Météo-France defended the organization by saying that not all did because they do not yet represent these very localized phenomena well enough.[6]
 
Rasputin22

Rasputin22

Rasputin22
14,574
4,103
Here is a pretty grim compilation of the Corsican Derecho from a couple of weeks ago.



Still haven't figured out how to get around the blocking of some YouTube vids but just click through to watch it on YT.
 
Max Rockatansky

Max Rockatansky

DILLIGAF?
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WRT "warning."

The 2015 derecho that wiped the Dauphin Island Race out was born one hour before in New Orleans. So no time for "warning."

Observe: the clouds didn't get all that dark and scary, even right before the SHTF

 
Rasputin22

Rasputin22

Rasputin22
14,574
4,103
Max Rockatansky said:
WRT "warning."

The 2015 derecho that wiped the Dauphin Island Race out was born one hour before in New Orleans. So no time for "warning."

Observe: the clouds didn't get all that dark and scary, even right before the SHTF

Click to expand...

So that was your cat with the green canvas sailcovers? What does WRT in your warning mean? All I could think of it was a warning as to how cheezy that soundtrack and production in general was... A bent stanchion and sprung bow roller and the guy acted like it was the end of the world. Pretty disrespectful to the drowned victims of that storm. Glad you guys were spared!

Here is a look at the same storm as it blew bayou down at the state line and the Flora-Bama mullet toss. Could have been the day to set an all time world record toss if you were throwing your fish East!



Here is a pretty good article about 'warning' in that blow.

This storm did not just appear out of the blue​

One racer was missing and the bodies of five others had been recovered as Alabama authorities and the Coast Guard began investigating the deaths of six sailors after near-hurricane-force winds pummeled the Dauphin Island Race on Mobile Bay.
Conditions on Mobile Bay quickly deteriorated when the line of storms moved through.


An organized line of severe thunderstorms marching east along the Gulf Coast from Texas and Louisiana bore down on the bay with 60-mph winds about 3 p.m. on Saturday, April 25, as some of the 112 sailboats were finishing the 18-mile course from Mobile to Dauphin Island and others were returning home. The race, scheduled to start at 9:30 a.m., was postponed an hour due to a misunderstanding between race officials at host Fairhope Yacht Club and their Web administrator, who in a garbled phone conversation thought he had been told to post a notice that the race had been “scratched” — canceled — when in fact he had been told to post the scratch sheet on the club website, an unidentified club official told Al.com.
The cancellation notice was posted, then retracted. The first of the two starts was rescheduled for 10:30 but didn’t occur until 11 o’clock because of a restart, which set the fleet up for a collision with the midafternoon storm. At least eight boats sank or were disabled. The Coast Guard says multiple agencies and good Samaritans rescued at least 40 people from the water. The National Weather Service reported a 73-mph gust at 3:18 p.m. at the Mobile Bay lighthouse, and racers say waves — whipped into walls of water in the shallow bay — quickly built to 8 to 10 feet, swamping and capsizing boats and leaving sailors in the churning waters.




Rescue boats, helicopters and aircraft from the Coast Guard, Alabama Marine Patrol, and the Mobile and Baldwin County sheriff’s departments searched 9,500 square miles of Mobile Bay and 164 miles of shoreline for survivors over four days, then downshifted to a search-and-recovery operation for the body of one sailor who was still unaccounted for.
As part of their joint investigation, the Coast Guard and the Alabama Law Enforcement Agency’s Marine Patrol asked the approximately 476 race participants to fill out a survey that included this question: “Did you or anyone on your vessel hear weather alerts from any source before weather conditions deteriorated?” The question suggested another one that perplexed many observers in the days after the tragedy: Why had so many skippers been surprised by this storm?
The storm was forecasted, yet it caught many sailors by surprise.


“All the right watches and warnings were posted,” says WBMA-TV Birmingham’s chief meteorologist, James Spann, the dean of Alabama weathermen and a regular on Weather Brains, a national weekly cable TV and podcast program. “I just don’t understand what failed. Why wouldn’t they be aware of the situation? The storm did not just appear out of the blue. Not this one.”

Some racers said post-race that they knew there was a possibility of thunderstorms, but thunderstorms are often possible along the Gulf Coast in the spring and summer. However, they weren’t expecting — many had never seen — anything this vicious.
Spann says that shouldn’t have been a surprise, either. Weather radar showed storms spreading across coastal Louisiana into Mississippi and Alabama in the hours preceding the race. At 5 a.m. the National Weather Service’s Storm Prediction Center issued a tornado watch for coastal Alabama until noon. At 1:35 p.m. it updated the watch to severe thunderstorms with 2-inch hail and 70-mph gusts until 9 p.m.
“Thunderstorms on the Gulf Coast are a way of life,” Spann says. In fact, one weather source reports that Mobile Bay and its vicinity experience thunder an average of 100 to 110 days a year. Spann says typical summer thunderstorms — called “air-mass” thunderstorms — indeed can “come out of the blue,” with little warning in localized conditions where warm air rises and cold air sinks to create an isolated thunderstorm. These are the “garden variety” storms many Gulf residents think of when they think of a thunderstorm.
But this storm was part of an “organized thunderstorm complex” that formed over Louisiana early on the morning of race day and remained very well-organized as it moved east along the coast into the afternoon, Spann says. Weather radar depicted the system as a “bow echo” with a shape like an archer’s bow, which identified it as a “mesoscale convective system” with powerful and destructive straight-line winds.
On the water, this kind of storm “can kill people,” Spann says. “It did kill people.”
Spann, who spearheaded the effort to educate Alabamans about severe weather — tornados, in particular — after the April 27, 2011, storms that spawned 62 tornados in the state and killed 252 people, says skippers in inshore races need to keep their ears glued to the NOAA weather channel on their VHF radio when a system like this is in the neighborhood. (All of the Dauphin Island racers were required to carry a VHF.) And they would be well-advised to use smartphone apps that sound storm and tornado warning alerts, as well as a weather radar app that depicts storms moving into the area. “That’s worth its weight in gold,” he says. “It could have saved someone’s life.”
 
Max Rockatansky

Max Rockatansky

DILLIGAF?
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Yes, that was my cat, and yes, the storm had short warning. There was a whole damn lot of crawfishing from the meteorologists on that one.

The only reason I posted that video was to show that there wasn't a particularly ugly squall line at least where we were; just a darkening of an already cloudy day. I understand that the storm appeared differentially, geographically. But I was in Aloe Bay Dauphin Island, and the video is what I saw.

The storm formed in New Orleans, an hour later it hit Mobile Bay, and however later on it hit Gulf Shores. The storm had different faces in different places, shall we say

ps: WRT means 'with respect to'
 
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