shaggybaxter
Super Anarchist
Whilst Trump plays tiddlywinks with global trade, lumping American allies and competitors for the top dog crown all in one basket, at least he’s uniting the rest of the world and giving them a common goal.
The revised PTPP, renamed as the CPTPP, is bubbling along nicely. Not only that, the RCEP is becoming an even more serious power bloc too, albeit with tougher challenges.
What’s noticeable is the commitment to trading borders remain open and more determined than ever, but specifically not to the US if Trump continues his isolationist approach. Short summation below:
Conclusion of CPTPP does not deliver the big strategic goal of keeping the US entrenched in Asia. However, it still sends to Mr Trump a message on the region's commitment to openness. Holding the line and pushing back against growing protectionist sentiment keeps up the pressure. It could add momentum for broader liberalisation in Asia by facilitating expansion of membership and by lifting the ambition in the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), an agreement being negotiated by the 10 ASEAN members as well as Australia, China, India, Japan, New Zealand and South Korea.
RCEP includes some of the largest and most dynamic economies in the world and is important enough to make a difference globally. An Australian Productivity Commission study estimates that even if tariffs were raised 15 percentage points globally (similar to what happened in the Great Depression), RCEP countries could all continue economic expansion if they abolished tariffs as a group. The gains for RCEP countries would be even larger with behind-the-border reforms.
Australia has a trade deficit on trade to the US by almost double, and have been told we are not exempt from the Trump steel and alloy tariffs. Talk about pushing away your trading partners.
Actions have consequences. It’s a shame Trump’s just too thick to think more than one sound bite ahead.
The revised PTPP, renamed as the CPTPP, is bubbling along nicely. Not only that, the RCEP is becoming an even more serious power bloc too, albeit with tougher challenges.
What’s noticeable is the commitment to trading borders remain open and more determined than ever, but specifically not to the US if Trump continues his isolationist approach. Short summation below:
Conclusion of CPTPP does not deliver the big strategic goal of keeping the US entrenched in Asia. However, it still sends to Mr Trump a message on the region's commitment to openness. Holding the line and pushing back against growing protectionist sentiment keeps up the pressure. It could add momentum for broader liberalisation in Asia by facilitating expansion of membership and by lifting the ambition in the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), an agreement being negotiated by the 10 ASEAN members as well as Australia, China, India, Japan, New Zealand and South Korea.
RCEP includes some of the largest and most dynamic economies in the world and is important enough to make a difference globally. An Australian Productivity Commission study estimates that even if tariffs were raised 15 percentage points globally (similar to what happened in the Great Depression), RCEP countries could all continue economic expansion if they abolished tariffs as a group. The gains for RCEP countries would be even larger with behind-the-border reforms.
Australia has a trade deficit on trade to the US by almost double, and have been told we are not exempt from the Trump steel and alloy tariffs. Talk about pushing away your trading partners.
Actions have consequences. It’s a shame Trump’s just too thick to think more than one sound bite ahead.