Ohio is down to 6% of tests being positive and except for deaths our numbers are looking very good. Our deaths are being adjusted for November and December undercounts. The US generally is looking better. Germany never looked bad. Spain, Poland and Mexico are looking better. France is mediocre, maybe it's spread by wine. Japan is looking better, but they increased restrictions a couple weeks ago. By culture, most Japanese people follow directions and look for harmonious coexistence. In America our convenience is more important then our neighbor's life.
Postulates and opinions:
Postulates and opinions:
- Trump stopped holding mass Darwin events. I'm sure this has had a positive effect in the US.
- Herd immunity is somehow reached at 5% vaccination. Not a snowball's chance in hell.
- Herd immunity is reached in some areas. Very likely, though immunity is transient. The 9 states with > 1:500 citizens dead from COVID can predict over 40% of their population have been infected. UK and Belgium are around this level as well. Likely many cities and clusters had levels twice that, with other areas having many fewer cases. Incidence maps on a zip code level look like a mosaic, not a carpet. Additionally not all people expose themselves equally. Those whose jobs or personality result in a lot of human contact may have significant immunity while the introverts are still vulnerable. Of course immunity from 6-12 months ago is now wearing off. I personally know one woman who survived it in February 2020 (probable case, we weren't testing people that hadn't been overseas since the government was in denial that the US had community spread. She was influenza negative, her hospital / doctors think think it likely and her husband had a travel history. She died when reinfected last month.) The virus is now endemic, so small ripples and continual culling of the weak would be expected to replace waves.
- Holiday parties are over. Stimulus money is gone. Nobody has time or money to spread the disease, they are too busy getting by. I think this is very true in Ohio. The US stimulus package may create a new flair up.
- The dumbest people have died or are in a propofol coma, so the rest are being careful. Even people living in Republican areas are able to properly wear a mask on occasion. Though exposure continues, virus load is likely reduced so there are fewer bad outcomes.
- Life (and death) are fundamentally random, ebbs and flows are expected. This has been true throughout the pandemic.