Why is it getting better? US / world

Lark

Supper Anarchist
9,489
1,699
Ohio
Ohio is down to 6% of tests being positive and except for deaths our numbers are looking very good.  Our deaths are being adjusted for November and  December undercounts.   The US generally is looking better.  Germany never looked bad.  Spain, Poland and Mexico are looking better.   France is mediocre, maybe it's spread by wine.   Japan is looking better, but they increased restrictions a couple weeks ago.  By culture, most Japanese people follow directions and look for harmonious coexistence.     In America our convenience is more important then our neighbor's life.    

Postulates and opinions:

  1. Trump stopped holding mass Darwin events.  I'm sure this has had a positive effect in the US.
  2. Herd immunity is somehow reached at 5% vaccination.   Not a snowball's chance in hell.
  3. Herd immunity is reached in some areas.   Very likely, though immunity is transient.   The 9 states with > 1:500 citizens dead from COVID can predict over 40% of their population have been infected.   UK and Belgium are  around this level as well.   Likely many cities and clusters had levels twice that, with other areas having many fewer cases.   Incidence maps on a zip code level look like a mosaic, not a carpet.    Additionally not all people expose themselves equally.  Those whose jobs or personality result in a lot of human contact may have significant immunity while the introverts are still vulnerable.   Of course immunity from 6-12  months ago is now wearing off.   I personally know one woman who survived it in February 2020 (probable case, we weren't testing people that hadn't been overseas since the government was in denial that the US had community spread.   She was influenza negative, her hospital / doctors think think it likely and her husband had a travel history.   She died when reinfected last month.)    The virus is now endemic, so small ripples and continual culling of the weak would be expected to replace waves.   
  4. Holiday parties are over.  Stimulus money is gone.   Nobody has time or money to spread the disease, they are too busy getting by.   I think this is very true in Ohio.  The US stimulus package may create a new flair up.
  5. The dumbest people have died or are in a propofol coma, so the rest are being careful.  Even people living in Republican areas are able to properly wear a mask on occasion.   Though exposure continues, virus load is likely reduced so there are fewer bad outcomes.
  6. Life (and death) are fundamentally random, ebbs and flows are expected.  This has been true throughout the pandemic.    


 

Ncik

Super Anarchist
2,180
396
Ohio is down to 6% of tests being positive and except for deaths our numbers are looking very good.  Our deaths are being adjusted for November and  December undercounts.   The US generally is looking better.  Germany never looked bad.  Spain, Poland and Mexico are looking better.   France is mediocre, maybe it's spread by wine.   Japan is looking better, but they increased restrictions a couple weeks ago.  By culture, most Japanese people follow directions and look for harmonious coexistence.     In America our convenience is more important then our neighbor's life.    

Postulates and opinions:

  1. Trump stopped holding mass Darwin events.  I'm sure this has had a positive effect in the US.
  2. Herd immunity is somehow reached at 5% vaccination.   Not a snowball's chance in hell.
  3. Herd immunity is reached in some areas.   Very likely, though immunity is transient.   The 9 states with > 1:500 citizens dead from COVID can predict over 40% of their population have been infected.   UK and Belgium are  around this level as well.   Likely many cities and clusters had levels twice that, with other areas having many fewer cases.   Incidence maps on a zip code level look like a mosaic, not a carpet.    Additionally not all people expose themselves equally.  Those whose jobs or personality result in a lot of human contact may have significant immunity while the introverts are still vulnerable.   Of course immunity from 6-12  months ago is now wearing off.   I personally know one woman who survived it in February 2020 (probable case, we weren't testing people that hadn't been overseas since the government was in denial that the US had community spread.   She was influenza negative, her hospital / doctors think think it likely and her husband had a travel history.   She died when reinfected last month.)    The virus is now endemic, so small ripples and continual culling of the weak would be expected to replace waves.   
  4. Holiday parties are over.  Stimulus money is gone.   Nobody has time or money to spread the disease, they are too busy getting by.   I think this is very true in Ohio.  The US stimulus package may create a new flair up.
  5. The dumbest people have died or are in a propofol coma, so the rest are being careful.  Even people living in Republican areas are able to properly wear a mask on occasion.   Though exposure continues, virus load is likely reduced so there are fewer bad outcomes.
  6. Life (and death) are fundamentally random, ebbs and flows are expected.  This has been true throughout the pandemic.    
7. Northern hemisphere is moving into spring?

 

Ncik

Super Anarchist
2,180
396
Ohio does look like it has peaked, but still excess deaths.

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm

image.png

 

Ncik

Super Anarchist
2,180
396
The eastern half finally dropped below 0 c.    Lake Erie wasn’t even frozen until a couple weeks ago,   
Fair enough, it was pure speculation, even the CDC excess death graph shows the baseline is still high at this time of year, but it is on the way down so peak flu season is probably coming to an end, even if the weather hasn't improved.

 

Lark

Supper Anarchist
9,489
1,699
Ohio
Interesting link, I hadn’t seen that.   I’m not surprised.    I could have more precisely said ‘significant relative improvement to prior levels but not historic norms’.   ‘Looking very good’ had an advantage of brevity.    Interestingly Japan reported a significant drop in influenza infections compared to historic norms last month.   I haven’t seen Ohio’s data.   The end of flu season is presumably a combination of weather affecting viral stability and increase in immunity.    Or am I overlooking something?   

 

Monkey

Super Anarchist
10,901
2,526
In my area, Covid started falling in mid November and is down to a fraction of what it was. Honestly, I believe it is due to a variation of herd immunity. Not the rediculous version that was originally being pushed though, just herd immunity amongst the most active spreaders. Our bars stayed open and stayed busy. Covid ran rampant through that crowd, but is now virtually a non-issue. My employer stayed open. Despite our best efforts, Covid had a pretty good run here. Now I know more people that have had it than haven’t. But now it’s almost nonexistent at work. 
 

I fully understand that it doesn’t mean herd immunity has been achieved to a level needed to work, just that it’s been achieved in the segment that was most actively spreading it. 

 

basketcase

Fuck you second amendment
4,060
1,037
a long way from home
number 5. i am still, a year into this, running into people that cant wear a mask, or social distance. i was in the line up at the grocery the other week and the fucktard behind me had his nose out. i asked him if he knew it was pointless to wear a mask like that. he told me that the virus was spread by the mouth. i asked if he knew that his nose and mouth were directly connected. he looked confused. another time in the check out, same store, a fucktard decided to squeeze by me as i was at the register.... literally squeezed by to stand behind me in line. i asked him point blank what the fuck he was doing and he gave me a confused look.

 i think that in america even the slightest up turn is looked on as being good because of how bad it is. im a canadian living in new mexico..... new mexico has the population of 1/3 the greater toronto area (2m to 6M), that population lives in 1/3 the area of all of ontario, as of yesterday new mexico had over twict the active cases of all of canada.

 

NeedAClew

Super Anarchist
6,044
1,692
USA
Holiday travel cases peaked, bit more mask wearing, some a bit more scared. Wait till the mutants really get going. We got UK and South African here for sure.

 

accnick

Super Anarchist
3,254
2,280
It is freezing cold in Northern US.  Everyone is huddled around a fire, too cold to go out
It's nice here in Florida.

It was cooler a couple of weeks ago. We had fires in the fireplace, which we don't often get to do these days.

 

BlatantEcho

Super Anarchist
1,041
297
The US numbers are going down so fast, the last few days have reported cases 40%(!) below the 7 day average.
 

The numbers haven't been this low in the US since Summer.
 

The rate of decline, has accelerated as well recently.
Cases are in free fall in the US across the board.  States that have lockdown / no lockdowns / mask mandates / no masks.  All declining.

Screen Shot 2021-02-16 at 8.22.27 AM.png

 
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Kate short for Bob

Super Anarchist
3,634
544
The US numbers are going down so fast, the last few days have reported cases 40%(!) below the 7 day average.
 

The numbers haven't been this low in the US since Summer.
 

The rate of decline, has accelerated as well recently.
Cases are in free fall in the US across the board.  States that have lockdown / no lockdowns / mask mandates / no masks.  All declining.

View attachment 428979
It does as virus's do.....Gompertz curve.

 

Ncik

Super Anarchist
2,180
396
Speed wasn't to blame for the car crash, it was the sudden stop at the end.

 
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Steam Flyer

Sophisticated Yet Humble
44,361
9,658
Eastern NC
In my area, Covid started falling in mid November and is down to a fraction of what it was. Honestly, I believe it is due to a variation of herd immunity. Not the rediculous version that was originally being pushed though, just herd immunity amongst the most active spreaders. Our bars stayed open and stayed busy. Covid ran rampant through that crowd, but is now virtually a non-issue. My employer stayed open. Despite our best efforts, Covid had a pretty good run here. Now I know more people that have had it than haven’t. But now it’s almost nonexistent at work. 
 

I fully understand that it doesn’t mean herd immunity has been achieved to a level needed to work, just that it’s been achieved in the segment that was most actively spreading it. 
Hmmm... "partial herd immunity" is a nice concept but it only works if there is very little contact between partial herds. However, being in a "partial herd" or extended bio-bubble that includes a lot of people who are either vaccinated or have recovered will definitely help reduce the rate of spread within that group.

But it's like a forest fire that burns individual trees... and there is still plenty of fuel left. Very glad to see the country pulling back from the brink.

One of the things that is happening is that as hospitals have less of a crush of patients, more health care professionals can devote time to vaccination programs.

Still possible to have another wave with calamitous death counts... I hope it doesn't happen but I also hope people remain cautious.

- DSK

 




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