Why is it getting better? US / world

Monkey

Super Anarchist
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Hmmm... "partial herd immunity" is a nice concept but it only works if there is very little contact between partial herds. However, being in a "partial herd" or extended bio-bubble that includes a lot of people who are either vaccinated or have recovered will definitely help reduce the rate of spread within that group.

But it's like a forest fire that burns individual trees... and there is still plenty of fuel left. Very glad to see the country pulling back from the brink.

One of the things that is happening is that as hospitals have less of a crush of patients, more health care professionals can devote time to vaccination programs.

Still possible to have another wave with calamitous death counts... I hope it doesn't happen but I also hope people remain cautious.

- DSK
Hopefully I was clear in saying my partial herd immunity theory is most definitely not a solution. I was just suggesting that one reason for the drop off might be that the most active spreaders have antibodies by now, so aren’t doing the spreading anymore. 

 

NeedAClew

Super Anarchist
5,959
1,650
USA
Ours are where they were in October.

Think it's more distancing/mask use and positive peer pressure, plus fewer mass spreader events and holidays. We will see what spring break brings.  

 
A

Amati

Guest
Hopefully I was clear in saying my partial herd immunity theory is most definitely not a solution. I was just suggesting that one reason for the drop off might be that the most active spreaders have antibodies by now, so aren’t doing the spreading anymore. 
Or they got sick, or people they know died, or got it again, and they are scared, whether they admit it or not.  Or maybe the word ‘mutation’ made a dent.  Like ‘Zombies’.  

 

Monkey

Super Anarchist
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Or they got sick, or people they know died, or got it again, and they are scared, whether they admit it or not.  Or maybe the word ‘mutation’ made a dent.  Like ‘Zombies’.  
Nope, none of that. I’ve already confessed to having gone back to my happy hour joint. I’ve already tested positive for having the antibodies.  I know it’s stupid, but I carry on with my after work happy hour.  Pretty much most of my city does as well.  Our Covid numbers keep falling.  I think my theory is sound  

 

pusslicker

Super Anarchist
1,687
635
Paris
Nope, none of that. I’ve already confessed to having gone back to my happy hour joint. I’ve already tested positive for having the antibodies.  I know it’s stupid, but I carry on with my after work happy hour.  Pretty much most of my city does as well.  Our Covid numbers keep falling.  I think my theory is sound  
I agree with this. It's like the stock markets. They don't go straight up forever. Everybody that could get infected got infected and now we are in the waning days of this latest surge. I mean 300000 people were testing positive per day for months. That shit could only go on for so long and with 15 percent getting the first shot that is 50 percent effective and 10's of millions of people getting infected this wave just fagged out. Hopefully the summer and more vaccinations will kill it.

 

Ncik

Super Anarchist
2,175
394
this wave just fagged out. Hopefully the summer and more vaccinations will kill it.
Are the epidemiologists saying this? All the ones I've heard say covid variants will be around for a good while yet, but likely/hopefully with reduced impact on society.

 

NeedAClew

Super Anarchist
5,959
1,650
USA
Nope, none of that. I’ve already confessed to having gone back to my happy hour joint. I’ve already tested positive for having the antibodies.  I know it’s stupid, but I carry on with my after work happy hour.  Pretty much most of my city does as well.  Our Covid numbers keep falling.  I think my theory is sound  
Do you know for sure you can't carry it to other people in your bar, grocery store, etc. if reexposed?

 

pusslicker

Super Anarchist
1,687
635
Paris
Are the epidemiologists saying this? All the ones I've heard say covid variants will be around for a good while yet, but likely/hopefully with reduced impact on society.
Of course it's going to be around for a long time like every other disease. I don't worry about catching polio or measles so I am assuming this will be the same thing? On SA I get to play the epidemiologist.

 

Steam Flyer

Super Anarchist
40,071
7,604
Eastern NC
Nope, none of that. I’ve already confessed to having gone back to my happy hour joint. I’ve already tested positive for having the antibodies.  I know it’s stupid, but I carry on with my after work happy hour.  Pretty much most of my city does as well.  Our Covid numbers keep falling.  I think my theory is sound  
I agree with this. It's like the stock markets. They don't go straight up forever. Everybody that could get infected got infected and now we are in the waning days of this latest surge. I mean 300000 people were testing positive per day for months. That shit could only go on for so long and with 15 percent getting the first shot that is 50 percent effective and 10's of millions of people getting infected this wave just fagged out. Hopefully the summer and more vaccinations will kill it. 
Sorry, no.

By the wildest possible projections, your numbers are very far wrong. Seriously, "Everybody that could get infected got infected" is the whole population which is why the actual epidemiologists (real doctors, that is) have always said that 75~80% is the lowest threshold for any functional herd immunity. That's over 260 million in the USA.

OTOH it's possible that there are groups with little outside transmission where two things are happening, the people most likely to bring infection into the group have already had it or been vaccinated; and/or a greater majority within the group have already had it.

This model also accounts for the reduction in transmission where people that are at higher risk of transmitting it have smartened up and are protecting themselves better.

There is still plenty of fuel for this fire... I am hoping that we avoid another big wave but thinking that it somehow "just happens" or some other kind of magic will lead to disaster. It always does.

- DSK

 

pusslicker

Super Anarchist
1,687
635
Paris
Sorry, no.

By the wildest possible projections, your numbers are very far wrong. Seriously, "Everybody that could get infected got infected" is the whole population which is why the actual epidemiologists (real doctors, that is) have always said that 75~80% is the lowest threshold for any functional herd immunity. That's over 260 million in the USA.

OTOH it's possible that there are groups with little outside transmission where two things are happening, the people most likely to bring infection into the group have already had it or been vaccinated; and/or a greater majority within the group have already had it.

This model also accounts for the reduction in transmission where people that are at higher risk of transmitting it have smartened up and are protecting themselves better.

There is still plenty of fuel for this fire... I am hoping that we avoid another big wave but thinking that it somehow "just happens" or some other kind of magic will lead to disaster. It always does.

- DSK
Isn't the original question about why the numbers are going down? That's what I think. 70 percent of my group has had it. I'm careful and have been tested 3 times, but don't think I have had it. I'm only extrapolating from my tiny sample. Why do you think it's waning?

 

hasher

Super Anarchist
6,456
1,028
Insanity
Isn't the original question about why the numbers are going down? That's what I think. 70 percent of my group has had it. I'm careful and have been tested 3 times, but don't think I have had it. I'm only extrapolating from my tiny sample. Why do you think it's waning?
The original question is why are the numbers so high.

This little threat to life continues to rage across the planet.  Do you rage against the efforts to contain it?

 

Steam Flyer

Super Anarchist
40,071
7,604
Eastern NC
Isn't the original question about why the numbers are going down? That's what I think. 70 percent of my group has had it. I'm careful and have been tested 3 times, but don't think I have had it. I'm only extrapolating from my tiny sample. Why do you think it's waning?
I think it's waning because a lot of people have had it and are immune for now (~ 28 million, or a bit under 10% of the whole US population), a lot of people are vaccinated (although it takes a couple of weeks for the vaccine protection to build up, AND it is still possible for vaccinated people to spread it... best info is that it cuts transmission/contagion by ~50%), and a lot of people who said "fuck that mask bullshit, the dadgum gubbermint cain't tell ME what to do!" are now either dead or being more careful after all.

If you extrapolate the additional -probable- cases from the number of probable asymptomatic cases, you could double the number that have acquired immunity up to 20%.

So the amount of 'available fuel' is still very large but the ways that it can catch fire have been pushed down... but if it starts spreading again, especially the newer more contagious variants, the potential for a worse outbreak than any we've had so far still exists.

Hopefully, if we can ramped up vaccination -AND- people stay careful for a few more months, this will really be behind us. How I am hoping!!!!

- DSK

 

pusslicker

Super Anarchist
1,687
635
Paris
I agree with that. I'm just hoping the summer and vaccines are enough. I guess I'm just so sick of this shit that I'm overly optimistic that the summer and vaccines will be enough.

 

Monkey

Super Anarchist
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Do you know for sure you can't carry it to other people in your bar, grocery store, etc. if reexposed?
Of course not. Do you know for sure that you can’t carry it to others once you’ve had the vaccine?  At a certain point you just have to play the odds and get on with life. 

 

Monkey

Super Anarchist
10,362
2,034
There, fify.
Why don’t you tell us all what percentage of people who’ve had Covid have caught it a second time?  Is that number higher or lower than the 5% who the vaccine won’t work for?  The world can’t stay closed forever, even if you want it to. I’m going to enjoy dinner with my parents and brother at an actual restaurant tonight. Should be fun. By the way, my dad’s a doctor and mom’s a nurse, yet they’re not afraid of me because they know I already have the antibodies. They know the odds and have decided to get back to living life as well. I’m still a mask supporter because the numbers say they work. You’re judging me on your own fear, not the numbers. 

 
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Why is covid winding down in the US?  Because it’s mostly run it’s course through the population that was susceptible.  It hit nursing homes first, killed 30+% or more, the ones left either recovered or had some natural resistance.
 

Then when the younger crowd got sick of the lockdowns in the summer, it swept through them quickly and with a few exceptions, was mostly a mild cold.

The deaths in the fall were the older baby boomers, who started going back to work and socializing, and it killed lots of them because they are old, fat, amd unhealthy, and too fucking stupid to wear masks.

But at this point, there are not all that many who haven’t been previously exposed and are out & about left to infect. Maybe there will be one more wave, when all the shut-ins (like @Jack Sparrow) crawl out from under their rocks, but it’ll be less than before.

 
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Monkey

Super Anarchist
10,362
2,034
Why is covid winding down in the US?  Because it’s mostly run it’s course through the population that was susceptible.  It hit nursing homes first, killed 30+% or more, the ones left either recovered or had some natural resistance.
 

Then when the younger crowd got sick of the lockdowns in the summer, it swept through them quickly and with a few exceptions, was mostly a mild cold.

The deaths in the fall were the older baby boomers, who started going back to work and socializing, and it killed lots of them because they are old, fat, amd unhealthy, and too fucking stupid to wear masks.

But at this point, there are not all that many who haven’t been previously exposed and are out & about left to infect. Maybe there will be one more wave, when all the shut-ins (like @Jack Sparrow) crawl out from under their rocks, but it’ll be less than before.
That pretty much sums it up remarkably well. 

 
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