Why is it getting better? US / world

[NeedAClew]

Why is covid winding down in the US?  Because it’s mostly run it’s course through the population that was susceptible.  It hit nursing homes first, killed 30+% or more, the ones left either recovered or had some natural resistance.
 

Then when the younger crowd got sick of the lockdowns in the summer, it swept through them quickly and with a few exceptions, was mostly a mild cold.

The deaths in the fall were the older baby boomers, who started going back to work and socializing, and it killed lots of them because they are old, fat, amd unhealthy, and too fucking stupid to wear masks.

And wanted to see their families or took care of their grandkids or had to go to work in public facing jobs to support their families or lived in multigenerational households. But if they were old or fat or unhealthy, well eff em, right? 

But at this point, there are not all that many who haven’t been previously exposed and are out & about left to infect. Maybe there will be one more wave, when all the shut-ins (like @Jack Sparrow) crawl out from under their rocks, but it’ll be less than before.

The numbers don't quite jibe but I catch your drift. The scaredy Karens won't be much missed either, right?

That pretty much sums it up remarkably well. 

I am so glad you soulmates found each other. Often, lack of empathy is an impediment but it works on SA. 

Be careful never to get fat, sick, or aquire any lung or heart or vascular problems. Next pandemic you might be tossed into the eff em pool.  

 

[Controversial_posts]

And wanted to see their families or took care of their grandkids or had to go to work in public facing jobs to support their families or lived in multigenerational households. But if they were old or fat or unhealthy, well eff em, right? 

It makes people here really mad when I call it like it is, but yeah... if you’re are 65 and fat, getting covid is going to be a lot worse that 35 and fit.  It’s not like this is new info, we’ve known this since March.

 

[NeedAClew]

Why don’t you tell us all what percentage of people who’ve had Covid have caught it a second time?  Is that number higher or lower than the 5% who the vaccine won’t work for?  The world can’t stay closed forever, even if you want it to. I’m going to enjoy dinner with my parents and brother at an actual restaurant tonight. Should be fun. By the way, my dad’s a doctor and mom’s a nurse, yet they’re not afraid of me because they know I already have the antibodies. They know the odds and have decided to get back to living life as well. I’m still a mask supporter because the numbers say they work. You’re judging me on your own fear, not the numbers. 

Nobody knows right now how long post covid immunity lasts, although the new variants may be able to infect someone. Nobody knows right now if fully vaccinated people can infect others. You and the vaccinated might or might not be asymptomatic carriers. Partying with the family is different than aerosoling grocery workers or other strangers. 

You know that.

Its just that the "your fear is not my problem" crap is so much fun.

 

[NeedAClew]

It makes people here really mad when I call it like it is, but yeah... if you’re are 65 and fat, getting covid is going to be a lot worse that 35 and fit.  It’s not like this is new info, we’ve known this since March.

You know how many thin people of any age got bad covid, became long haulers, got strokes, got disabled? It's not nonzero. Look it up and tell us so you can write them off too. I mean a 30 year old longhauler ex soccer player must have done something wrong to account for that misfortune.

Fat shaming and fat pandemic blaming is fun I'm sure. And BTW neither of the Clews are fat. Or smoked. 

I am not mad, just disgusted. 

 

[Controversial_posts]

Nobody knows right now how long post covid immunity lasts, although the new variants may be able to infect someone. Nobody knows right now if fully vaccinated people can infect others.

It’s alarmist crap like that that’s keeping people from getting vaccinated and will make this pandemic last even longer.  Does it matter if you could eventually catch it again? Or if 10 people out of millions catch covid twice? No... it’s statistically irrelevant, and only interesting to alarmists. 
 

For 99.999% of the population, catching covid or getting a vaccine will protect for at least the next year, which is  enough to break the transmission chains.

 

[Controversial_posts]

Look it up and tell us so you can write them off too

Not “writing them off”, I’m broadly characterizing a pandemic trend that has affected hundreds of millions. Of course some young, thin, healthy people have died or had bad infections. But the overall impact is grossly disproportionate on older and overweight. 

 

[Steam Flyer]

Why is covid winding down in the US?  Because it’s mostly run it’s course through the population that was susceptible. 

....

No, that is VERY false and IMHO dangerous.

What is the percentage of people who have had Covid and recovered? What is the percentage approaching herd immunity? What is the percentage getting vaccinated?

Take a good look at those numbers and think it over.

- DSK

 

[Steam Flyer]

Not “writing them off”, I’m broadly characterizing a pandemic trend that has affected hundreds of millions. Of course some young, thin, healthy people have died or had bad infections. But the overall impact is grossly disproportionate on older and overweight. 

OK now you're not posting "controversy" you're just posting stupid harmful crap. Are you a Russian troll getting paid to kill Americans?

Take a look at numbers of young people who recovered but with serious long-term health impact: cardiac (heart), lungs, or in thousands of cases life-long liver damage. Party on, Garth!

- DSK

 

[NeedAClew]

^cont posts  If you can't read, I can't do much.

Why should fully vaccinated people having the potential to infect others (what I said, I did not say they would get it twice) discourage vaccinations? It would encourage getting vaccinated. I got mine. If we don't know how long post covid immunity such as it is lasts, that encourages vaccination amongst the rational.

If you are talking vaccine reluctance, that's a different thing. 

 

[Controversial_posts]

No, that is VERY false and IMHO dangerous.

What is the percentage of people who have had Covid and recovered? What is the percentage approaching herd immunity? What is the percentage getting vaccinated?

Take a good look at those numbers and think it over.

- DSK

Only 28 million confirmed cases and another 40-50 million vaccinated, but rates are down 76% in last 6 weeks. That can only be explained if the actual infection rate has actually been 5-6 times higher. The thing is that the US population is not homogeneous — some smaller portion of the population does most of the spreading bc they are “out and about”.  Once you reach “herd immunity” among the “spreaders”, infection rates drop faster than the math would otherwise suggest.

And that is  exactly what we are seeing. Fuck, it’s not like people suddenly started behaving more safely in the last 6 weeks, but the numbers have dropped tremendously. And not enough vaccines to explain it either.

 

[Controversial_posts]

I am sorry if it upsets you that someone on this site tells it the way it is. But yeah, if you are old and fat, you are much more likely to die from covid. Saying the facts doesn’t = writing them off. Would you rather we all just pretend those are not the ones dying? Should i cherry pick the tiny proportion of  young people who have  died, so that the old guys here feel better?

 

[NeedAClew]

Where I live 90 percent of people on the streets and parks now wear masks. Even children. Biden. Variants. Community spirit? Wanting open schools and positivity rate needed to drop so that can happen? Incentives. 

 

[Controversial_posts]

After a year, Florida and California have nearly the same per capita rates, despite wildly different approaches. Give it enough time and covid worked through both populations and is now only fading because its infected or killedenough of the population that there’s fewer hosts left to spread [efficiently.]

 

[Steam Flyer]

Only 28 million confirmed cases and another 40-50 million vaccinated, but rates are down 76% in last 6 weeks. That can only be explained if the actual infection rate has actually been 5-6 times higher.    ...

Wrong, less than 20 million in the USA have been vaccinated.

It can be explained by many things, or combination of factors. The rate of asymptomatic infection is unknown but the range is not difficult to infer and you're WAY wrong.

Claiming it's all over is literally playing Russian roulette, especially with new mutations coming out.

Please don't make stupid and dangerous assumptions

- DSK

 

[Controversial_posts]

Where I live 90 percent of people on the streets and parks now wear masks. Even children.

That’s great for virtue signaling, but probably doesn’t do jack shit for spreading the disease. The evidence points to people spreading it indoors where they are not wearing masks.  
 

Here in MD, masks have been mandatory since April, but it wasn’t until it got cold and everyone started hanging out inside that cases skyrocketed. It dropped to nearly nothing in the summer when everyone was interacting outside.  In the midwest, where it cooled down a month earlier, their cases jumped before us.

 

[Controversial_posts]

Wrong, less than 20 million in the USA have been vaccinated.

No, wrong 40-50 million have received there first dose, which probably provides 70-80% protection for at least a period of time. If we wanted to crush this faster, using one dose and then following up with a 2-dose regimen would have more effect, overall.

 

[Steam Flyer]

I am sorry if it upsets you that someone on this site tells it the way it is.

...

Oh, don't be sorry. Just shut the fuck up because you are very wrong and what you are saying is dangerous.

Can't you go give some gasoline and matches to little kids?

To say "everybody who is gonna catch it, has already caught it" when that is less than 10% of the population... is anybody that stupid?

Where I live 90 percent of people on the streets and parks now wear masks. Even children.

That’s great for virtue signaling, but probably doesn’t do jack shit for spreading the disease. ...

The evidence points to you being a paid troll, trying to kill more Americans.

So, to repeat.... shut the fuck up

- DSK

 

[Controversial_posts]

To say "everybody who is gonna catch it, has already caught it" when that is less than 10% of the population... is anybody that stupid?

Nope. I said that the best explanation for the 77% drop in cases in the last 6 weeks is that the sub-population of  people most likely to catch & spread it have largely achieved something approaching herd immunity.

there are many tens of millions left who can catch it still, but they are largely the group that has isolated since  March (like my parents).  i think there will be a 4th wave, when the shut-ins come out of their houses, bc they think its safe and don’t get vaccinated. They will be a new “virgin population” for the disease, probably arounf May-June timeframe. Unfortunately.
 

But the data requires a high level of population immunity- there is no other explanation that fits. WSJ describes the math better than I can, here:

Covid-19 deaths in the U.S. would also suggest much broader immunity than recognized. About 1 in 600 Americans has died of Covid-19, which translates to a population fatality rate of about 0.15%. The Covid-19 infection fatality rate is about 0.23%. These numbers indicate that roughly two-thirds of the U.S. population has had the infection.

Math is math. It doesn’t really care about your politics or anything else. 

 

[Steam Flyer]

Nope. I said that the best explanation for the 77% drop in cases in the last 6 weeks is that the sub-population of  people most likely to catch & spread it have largely achieved something approaching herd immunity.

.....

Math is math...

Think about what you just said. The part I quoted, not the part that's bullshit like fatality rates, unknown infection rate, etc etc.

This is a country of over 330 million and less than 20% have acquired partial immunity due to either infection or vaccine. Furthermore, we know that the vaccinated can still spread it. Those are very simple facts and easily available from most non-bullshit sources.

So, think.

Or perhaps you'd better not. You're obviously an idiot. But it would still be better if you just shut the fuck up, with your lack of medical knowledge and your lack of math ability, you're just making a bad situation worse.

- DSK

 

[Controversial_posts]

This is a country of over 330 million and less than 20% have acquired partial immunity due to either infection or vaccine. Furthermore, we know that the vaccinated can still spread it. Those are very simple facts and easily available from most non-bullshit sources.

The original question was “why are cases dropping”, you should take your crusade against (something??) to one of the many threads for covid crusaders.
 

I and others have provided a math-based explanation for the undeniable 75%+ case decline, that infers that the actual US infection rate is not 20% but closer to 50%. (15% of the population has already gotten their first shot, so right there your numbers are way off...) 

No, that is not enough for a population-level herd immunity”, but with diseases that spread exponentially, a 50% immune population => 50% drop. And When you consider that some % may already have natural resistance, and the immunity in some sub-populations is higher because of their greater exposure during the last year (e.g. bar tenders, grocery workers, etc), that very easily explains why this “wave” has burned out.

For some reason this explanation really bothers people, I guess because they fear that we are going to “let our guard down”.  But I look at my sailing crew, and at least 40% of the younger ones have had it, so right there they have been removed from the potential pool of spreaders.

Furthermore, we know that the vaccinated can still spread it. Those are very simple facts and easily available from most non-bullshit sources.

sigh... this theoretically possible, but as long as the vaccine is working, the antibodies are killing the virus quickly (thats why you don’t get sick), and a vaccinated person is much less likely to spread it to anyone else.

this is like virus 101... always going to be outliers, but in general, vaccinated and recovered cases present no statistically meaningful public health threat. The message that they do, is a actual counterproductive because people are declining the vaccine believing there’s no point.