danstanford
Anarchist
Yes it is real, a recent news article here listed a number of 50 cases of re-infection world wide.
Why is it getting better? US / world
- Thread starter Lark
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I’d wish and hope that low number to be accurate, The US especially had poor testing, The surplus deaths show many severe cases weren’t diagnosed. That means a proportionately much larger number of mild cases were also missed. Therefore reinfection is also inevitably undercounted.
If immunity decays with blood antibodies then the areas hard hit a year ago are gradually becoming vulnerable. Mild cases and people that had negative health changes after a year of not going to the gym are most vulnerable. I’d argue the vulnerability of Spain and Queens to a new wave is yet to be determined on a practical matter. The roll of cell mediated vs humoral immunity is still being explored. There seems to be a lot of scientific concern that immunity does not last like we are used to with smallpox, measles or influenza strains, Though mutations are thought to be slower then influenza this is still a RNA virus with billions of opportunities. I want to think there will be significant partial immunity and a short ‘rev up period’ by memory cells, making reinfection less severe. This would mostly offset the penalty of age, except in those newly developing serious concurrent disease causing (diabetes, obesity) or requiring immunosuppression (cancer requiring chemo or even radiation). I have little evidence until people don’t die. Heavily polluted but young India seems to offer a clue.
The pandemic shows the futility of both lockdowns and herd immunity as coping plans. Clearly a multifaceted and well thought out plan is necessary. This does show just how easily society can shrug off a slow steady death loss as long as infrastructure is intact.
danstanford
Anarchist
Lark, I would challenge you to present such a plan that is sustainable or more sustainable than that which was used. If you can, it would be a great service to the world since most feel that this is not the last pandemic. Please use a broad definition of sustainable in that it cannot cause economic collapse and or more deaths due to the plan's actions/prohibitions.
In addition, I think your last sentence is really quite an accurate assessment of the situation. It applies in this same way to smoking, alcohol, gambling, fast cars and many other causes of death that we tacitly endorse by not outlawing for a number of reasons.
I am not being disingenuous here, I really do wish to further the conversation. One of the fascinating questions I have had since last spring is the question of Sweden's strategy and ultimately how good or misguided it will turn out to be.
Dan
Varan
Super Anarchist
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I love the forest. I hike a lot and have encountered many bears, cougars, wolves, coyotes, and moose, with moose being the ones I respect most, because they could kill me in an instant. Still, even with some too close encounters, I always go back, figuring if its gonna happen, its gonna happen. It would be a good death. Yet, covid, some minute invisible little fucker has me holed up like a little baby. That's just fucked up.
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That's perfectly rational.
This virus has killed more people than moose have in the last 12 months.
Besides, everyone wants to get past the virus so they can give their particular moose another chance...
BlatantEcho
Super Anarchist
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I think this is the saddest part...
It's not just that one person wasted over a year of their life for a virus that 99.8% survive - but it's the knock on effects this has on the poor.
The money not spent traveling. The money not spent on outdoor equipment. The money not spent on a new tent.
That doesn't hurt people here, in this thread. It doesn't hurt the rich. They are fine - holed up comfortable in their houses, cabins, vacation homes.
But the guy who stocks shelves at the outdoor store in your town?
The cleaning staff at the lodge you would have stayed at for a week normally?
The family that owns the tour company?
The poor have been monumentally shafted, by the scared rich.
It's one of the damndest things I've ever seen.
I don't know what the remedy is. Fear is a beast... but, I just wish people understood how much their actions - impacted others in real, awful, tangible ways.
Steam Flyer
Sophisticated Yet Humble
Yeah, and the thing about mooses is, they'll kill you by accident because they're so fucking clumsy, and then not even eat your body. Sheesh!!
- DSK
danstanford
Anarchist
I think the saddest part is the number of people taking shots at others and the way they are choosing/forced to deal with the risks of Covid. Lots of people end up feeling like they are on moral high ground because they can stay home instead of being out there in the world. Their decision is clearly a great one if they can make it a sustainable life choice as they are protecting themselves and others from some portion of the risk of Covid spread. What is missing is the recognition that many others cannot afford that choice and quite likely those same people are making it possible for the former to stay home....someone needs to work to provide for others.
Justifying why you make the choices you have, whatever they may be, can add to the discussion in a good way but taking shots at others just seems to result in more polarization.
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What you've just described isn't the fault of covid.
It's the fault of the system.
Covid is the stress test.
I have never and won't eat street food, from food trucks, etc. That tasty poke van in Hawaii draws shudders not my dollars. So my fear of gastro upset IS their problem. What ya wanna do, mandate patronage? After all "stomach flu" only wastes a day or two of my vacation hanging out in the hotel bathroom...hotel gets paid, poke maker gets paid...win win right?
danstanford
Anarchist
To be frank, I was blaming Covid in no way possible. In equal measure I do not blame any system I know of.
I am blaming people who profess to have leapt onto the moral high ground and criticize others from there. If you are implying that the system at fault is the economic system, it seems to be serving many quite well here in Canada as a good proportion of the critics are unemployed and receiving sufficient social benefits to spend their day on the internet looking for people who agree with them.
What you are failing to put into your equation is the fact that you are dealing with 2 totally different and opposite populations. 1(FL) where 90% of the pop lean red and they are following what their neighbors do. No Masks. 2(CA) where you have a Dem gov and a completely divided population where maybe 50% are mask wearers and there are mountains that divide communities and make for much more diverse and separated populations Not to mention the weather differences between communities which may have had some sort of affect on wearing a mask or not. Also as I said before, I trust the FL #'s as much as I trust a wet fart after eating taco bell. SO. Your theory makes sense, but the populations are not =. You need to compare states like CO and IL. or PA and Ohio. CA and FL are apples to oranges.
I have spent the pandemic with my 8o something YO MIL who has early stage dementia. She moved in with us after a forced hospital stay in April. I sailed, socialized and fixed boats all summer with our fleet, all social distanced and my crew is at low risk. I have not been outside of a 5 mi radius of my house for almost a year. (Office is 18 Mi away, but have been in only twice since this started so I don't count that). My point I guess is that individual circumstances differ(obviously) but never the less you have to put those circumstances into your equation.
It is still unclear whether the current reduction in cases in the UK and US are from the vaccine or the effect of "lockdowns".
Clearly there has been a dramatic reduction since the horror run in late 2020 over the festive season and new year. But the US is still averaging around 70,000 cases per day, with about 2,000 deaths per day. 4 months ago, those numbers were record highs of a building 3rd wave, now they're seen as encouraging trends toward recovery. I think that shows just how bad things were over the Christmas/new year period, another period when Trump said Covid would just magically go away.
NZ has started vaccinations and community spread has increased, clearly vaccines have not had time to affect transmission there, other factors are at play.
- Covid: Early data on vaccine effect on transmission 'encouraging', Zahawi says
- COVID-19 cases are dropping in US, but not because of vaccinations
Clearly there has been a dramatic reduction since the horror run in late 2020 over the festive season and new year. But the US is still averaging around 70,000 cases per day, with about 2,000 deaths per day. 4 months ago, those numbers were record highs of a building 3rd wave, now they're seen as encouraging trends toward recovery. I think that shows just how bad things were over the Christmas/new year period, another period when Trump said Covid would just magically go away.
NZ has started vaccinations and community spread has increased, clearly vaccines have not had time to affect transmission there, other factors are at play.
Controversial_posts
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No, I was intentionally comparing two very different populations. Because despite their extremely different approaches tomthe virus, after a year, the results ended up the same.
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And the counter-argument is that letting a very contagious virus run rampant through your society isn't good for the economy either. Have you found any legit sources yet that have run the numbers to back up your opinion?
Kill the economy (and a metric fuck-tonne of people) by letting a virus run rampant
versus
Hurt the economy by trying to control the virus.
Only one of those has any remote chance of success, where success is measured by societies general quality of life. All you had to do was buy some time until the scientists knew a bit more about handling it. But no, your privileged freedom (to live/work) outweighs all other considerations.
As a person privileged to live in a society that has handled this pandemic reasonably well, and watching other societies implode as the virus has its way, I know which I prefer. I'm fairly sure the poorer members of my society are also happy to be working/eating/living life without too many restrictions for now. Imagine how the world would be now if all the leaders had've tread similar paths and taken it seriously fro the beginning.
fyi, I know there are lots of rich people that have been adversely impacted by covid and all the restrictions, and many poor people that are better off, so this isn't the rich vs poor scenario you claim it to be.
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Dead people don't contribute to rebuild a society. Why is that so hard for others to understand?
In some ways they do, assuming there is enough of them. It concentrates wealth into fewer hands. The renaissance was helped along by the plague, could this happen again?
